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This paper examines credibility and reputational factors in explaining the December 1994 crisis of the Mexican peso. After reviewing events leading to the crisis, a model emphasizing the inflation-competitiveness trade-off is presented to explain the formation of devaluation expectations. Estimation results indicate that investors appear to have seriously underestimated the risk of devaluation, despite early warning signals. The collapse of confidence that followed the December 20 devaluation may have been the result of a shift in the perceived commitment of the authorities to exchange rate stability.

The Mexican Peso Bailout

United States. Congress. House. Committee on International Relations. Subcommittee on International Economic Policy and Trade

Published: 1995

Total Pages: 114


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Now in its third edition, this textbook covers all of the standard topics taught in undergraduate International Economics courses. However, the book is unique in that it presents the key orthodox neoclassical models of international trade and investment, whilst supplementing them with a variety of heterodox approaches. This pluralist approach is intended to give economics students a more realistic understanding of the international economy than standard textbooks can provide.