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The effects of financial contagion during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) have been extensively studied in the finance literarure. One of the key issues is the devastating effect of the crisis on wealth and asset prices. However, one key difference between this crisis and other crises in the past was the resilience (immunity) or the short term effect of the crisis on emerging markets. Dooley and Hutchison (2009) were the first ones to find evidence in support of the decoupling hypothesis of emerging markets during the early phases of the crisis. Since then the hypothesis have been tested by other researchers (for recent surveys see: Beirne and Gieck, 2014; Koksal and Orhan, 2013).
In the past, foreign shocks arrived to national economies mainly through trade channels, and transmissions of such shocks took time to come into effect. However, after capital globalization, shocks spread to markets almost immediately. Despite the increasing macroeconomic dangers that the situation generated at emerging markets in the South, nobody at the North was ready to acknowledge the pro-cyclicality of the financial system and the inner weakness of “decontrolled” financial innovations because they were enjoying from the “great moderation.” Monetary policy was primarily centered on price stability objectives, without considering the mounting credit and asset price booms being generated by market liquidity and the problems generated by this glut. Mainstream economists, in turn, were not majorly attracted in integrating financial factors in their models. External pressures on emerging market economies (EMEs) were not eliminated after 2008, but even increased as international capital flows augmented in relevance thereafter. Initially economic authorities accurately responded to the challenge, but unconventional monetary policies in the US began to create important spillovers in EMEs. Furthermore, in contrast to a previous surge in liquidity, funds were now transmitted to EMEs throughout the bond market. The perspective of an increase in US interest rates by the FED is generating a reversal of expectations and a sudden flight to quality. Emerging countries’ currencies began to experience higher volatility levels, and depreciation movements against a newly strong US dollar are also increasingly observed. Consequently, there are increasing doubts that the “unexpected” favorable outcome observed in most EMEs at the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) would remain.
This edition of Global Trends revolves around a core argument about how the changing nature of power is increasing stress both within countries and between countries, and bearing on vexing transnational issues. The main section lays out the key trends, explores their implications, and offers up three scenarios to help readers imagine how different choices and developments could play out in very different ways over the next several decades. Two annexes lay out more detail. The first lays out five-year forecasts for each region of the world. The second provides more context on the key global trends in train.
This volume brings together many of the leading international figures in development studies, such as Jose Antonio Ocampo, Paul Krugman, Dani Rodrik, Joseph Stiglitz, Daniel Cohen, Olivier Blanchard, Deepak Nayyar and John Williamson to reconsider and propose alternative development policies to the Washington Consensus. Covering a wide range of issues from macro-stabilization to trade and the future of global governance, this important volume makes a real contribution to this important and ongoing debate. The volume begins by introducing the Washington Consensus, discussing how it was originally formulated, what it left out, and how it was later interpreted, and sets the stage for a formulation of a new development framework in the post-Washington Consensus era. It then goes on to analyze and offer differing perspectives and potential solutions to a number of key development issues, some which were addressed by the Washington Consensus and others which were not. The volume concludes by looking toward formulating new policy frameworks and offers possible reforms to the current system of global governance.
The World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) is the definitive report of the United Nations on the state of the world economy. One of the most highly anticipated economic reports from the United Nations, it is jointly produced by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the five United Nations Regional Commissions.
Transnational Corporations is a policy-oriented journal for the publication of research on the activities of transnational corporations and their implication for economic development. Articles accepted for publication in this issue report on the following research themes: international tax
NIC 2008-003. November 2008. Global Trends 2025 is the fourth installment in the National Intelligence Council-led effort to identify key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a decade or more in the future. It offers a fresh look at how key global trends might develop over the next 15 years to influence world events. The primary goal is to provide US policymakers with a view of how world developments could evolve, identifying opportunities and potentially negative developments that might warrant policy action.
Rapid economic growth in Asia has gone hand in hand with increased savings. Yet, many people remain unbanked and savings are often invested abroad. If Asia is to continue to grow, governments must explore ways to better mobilize domestic finance and increase financial access. One way is through postal savings. This book (i) explains the benefits of postal savings, (ii) presents strategies ranging from a simple model of postal savings to full-fledged banking services, (iii) assesses national regulations, (iv) studies the challenges and opportunities arising from new technologies such as fintech, and (v) recommends ways to promote postal savings in developing Asia. technologies such as fintech, and (v) recommends ways to promote postal savings in developing Asia.
There is a vast literature for and against privatizing public services. Those who are against privatization are often confronted with the objection that they present no alternative. This book takes up that challenge by establishing theoretical models for what does (and does not) constitute an alternative to privatization, and what might make them ‘successful’, backed up by a comprehensive set of empirical data on public services initiatives in over 40 countries. This is the first such global survey of its kind, providing a rigorous and robust platform for evaluating different alternatives and allowing for comparisons across regions and sectors. The book helps to conceptualize and evaluate what has become an important and widespread movement for better public services in the global South. The contributors explore historical, existing and proposed non-commercialized alternatives for primary health, water/sanitation and electricity. The objectives of the research have been to develop conceptual and methodological frameworks for identifying and analyzing alternatives to privatization, and testing these models against actually existing alternatives on the ground in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Information of this type is urgently required for practitioners and analysts, both of whom are seeking reliable knowledge on what kind of public models work, how transferable they are from one place to another and what their main strengths and weaknesses are.
For more than a decade, America has been waging a new kind of war against the financial networks of rogue regimes, proliferators, terrorist groups, and criminal syndicates. Juan Zarate, a chief architect of modern financial warfare and a former senior Treasury and White House official, pulls back the curtain on this shadowy world. In this gripping story, he explains in unprecedented detail how a small, dedicated group of officials redefined the Treasury's role and used its unique powers, relationships, and reputation to apply financial pressure against America's enemies. This group unleashed a new brand of financial power -- one that leveraged the private sector and banks directly to isolate rogues from the international financial system. By harnessing the forces of globalization and the centrality of the American market and dollar, Treasury developed a new way of undermining America's foes. Treasury and its tools soon became, and remain, critical in the most vital geopolitical challenges facing the United States, including terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and the regimes in Iran, North Korea, and Syria. This book is the definitive account, by an unparalleled expert, of how financial warfare has taken pride of place in American foreign policy and how America's competitors and enemies are now learning to use this type of power themselves. This is the unique story of the United States' financial war campaigns and the contours and uses of financial power, and of the warfare to come.