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"Limited rainfall is the controlling factor in crop production in the Great Plains. The average yields of a series of years can be foretold from the records of past years; but because the rainfall is fluctuating in amount and uncertain in distribution, the yields of a simple year can not be foretold with any certainty. The chances of success are, however, much better when the soil is wet to a considerable depth at seeding time than they are when the soil contains little or no available water at that time. The relation between the amount of water in the soil at seeding time and the yield is much closer with winter wheat than with other crops. This crop should, therefore, be seeded on the best-prepared land and that in which the greatest amount of water is stored. Except in the southern section, the response of winter wheat to summer tillage is greater than that of any other crop. Summer-tilled land should be seeded to winter wheat wherever this crop can be grown. The growth of corn is one of the best preparations for winter wheat, especially north of Kansas. With increase in the length of season and the time between harvest and seeding, there is an increase in the value of early preparation for winter wheat. In the northern section the crop can be replaced with spring wheat without serious loss. In the central section winter wheat has a greater advantage over spring wheat and can not be replaced by the latter without serious loss. In the southern section, winter wheat is less certain and less productive than farther north and can not be replaced by spring wheat. It is, however, profitably raised under favorable conditions of oil, season, and preparation. In this section particularly it should be recognized that the chances of producing a crop are low when it is seeded on land that does not contain water enough in storage to wet the soil to a depth of 3 feet."--Page 2
Wheat is an important cereal crop in the Willamette Valley of Oregon and the stiff-strawed, high yielding winter varieties are the predominate types grown although spring varieties are not uncommon. Because of the mild, often open winters; present in the Willamette, it is not unusual to be able to seed wheat almost every month from early fall until late spring. The purpose of these studies was to determine the cold requirement and critical heading period of some important winter wheat varieties. The cold requirement and critical heading period was measured by determining the extent that each of the winter varieties would develop heads from various planting dates from late fall until early summer. Results were obtained on the percentage of heading for each variety in the 1961-62 trial and for heading and yields in bushels per acre in the 1962-63 trial. The critical seeding date was determined for each variety and a comparison was made between the two years. The new winter wheat variety, Gaines, had the highest average yield from all dates of seeding for the winter varieties and Gaines likewise had the highest yield from the latest date of seeding in the spring. There was more variation in the critical heading periods in 1961-62 than in 1962-63. Redmond showed the greatest variation between the two years. The critical period for yield was earlier than the critical period for heading. The results also showed lack of agreement between the winter hardiness of the winter varieties and the critical heading period.
Differences between area of land planted to wheat and area harvested indicate that poor wheat stands are being destroyed in the spring to plant more profitable crops. Current recommendations to evaluate spring stands are stem counts at Feekes growth stage (GS) 5, a practice that is not implemented by producers due to time and labor involved. Two promising replacement measurements are the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and fractional green canopy cover (FGCC). An experiment was conducted consisting of four site-years at two on-farm locations in Pickaway and Crawford Counties during the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 growing seasons. The design was a randomized complete block design with five seeding rates as the treatment. The objectives were to determine if FGCC was correlated to tiller counts, and to quantify the difference in yield prediction accuracy of tiller counts, NDVI, and FGCC (30.5 cm section of row called “1-row” and 3-row area) at Feekes GS 5 and 6, and head counts at Feekes GS 10.5. Linear regression models fit for stem counts at Feekes GS 5 and 6 vs. FGCC for 1-row at Feekes 5 and 6, respectively, were significant and were able to estimate stem density. The best estimators of yield were NDVI and 3-row FGCC measurements taken at Feekes GS 5, and can be used to estimate the proportion of yield that will result from a spring stand. Producers may adopt the stem estimation methods when making a decision about wheat stands in the spring and consider using NDVI and FGCC for yield estimation.