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This volume contains hearings from the Senate Subcommittee on Intergovernmental Relations regarding the growing concern in the mid-1970's about the fiscal solvency of state and local governments at a time of both severe inflation and severe recession.
State and local government tax revenues dropped steeply following the most severe housing market contraction since the Great Depression. The authors identify five main channels through which the housing market affects state and local tax revenues: property tax revenues, transfer tax revenues, sales tax revenues, and personal income tax revenues. They find that property tax revenues do not tend to decrease following house price declines. The other four channels have had a relatively modest effect on state tax revenues. These channels jointly reduced tax revenues by $15 billion from 2005 to 2009, which is about 2% of total state own-source revenues in 2005. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand publication.
The inflation of the 1970s represented the greatest peacetime disruption of the Western economies since the Depression. Even as inflation receded, the recession in its wake brought more joblessness than at any time since the 1930s. The governments of industrialized nations found that the economic policies they had developed since World War II no longer assured price stability or high employment. What are the lessons of over a decade of economic difficulty? In this conference volume, which focuses on aspects of the crisis that economists often presuppose to be beyond control, the authors analyze the political and social underpinning of inflation and recession. Part 1 places the economic problems of the 1970s in the historical context of postwar development and then compares economic and political science analyses of inflation. Part 2 examines how rivalries between social groups affect inflationary processes. One chapter draws on the history of Latin American inflation to suggest the conflicts in play. Two others weigh the role of labor and industry in the formation of economic policy. And another shows how rivalry between countries, like rivalry between classes at home, permitted inflation to rise. The chapters in part 3 contest the claim that big government or big labor causes inflation. Two studies emphasize that a high degree of public expenditure does not itself lead to inflation. Further contributions explore the role of central banks and subject such concepts as the political business cycle to critical analysis. Part 4 comprises case studies about macroeconomic policymaking in four nations: Italy, Germany, Japan, and Sweden. The studies reveal what institutional attributes rendered those countries resistant to inflation or vulnerable to economic setback. In the last part, the editors pull together the findings and lay out the contemporary political feasibility of alternative approaches to macroeconomic management.
Exploring the consequences of federal devolution on state budgets, this work deals with three major areas of concern: the effect of moving large numbers of welfare recipients into labour markets; the planned federal reforms in the health care field; and trends in federal aid.
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on highly political issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. In the face of uncertainty over the sustainability of recent economic policies, further contributions to this volume discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy. A direct intervention in timely debates, Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis offers invaluable insights about various responses to the recent financial crisis.