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The aim of this paper is to examine the electoral impact of the economic strategy pursued by the Coalition government in Britain since it came to power in the May 2010, and to study the role of the economy in influencing voting support for political parties over time. Immediately after the general election there was a great deal of support for the proposed austerity programme, with widespread agreement among elites and public alike about what should be done. However, as analyses presented below show, public attitudes have subsequently evolved with increasingly sharp disagreements emerging over the Coalition's austerity policy. The paper investigates the relationship between inflation, unemployment and public attitudes to the economy and their links to voting support using aggregate time series methods and also multi-level modelling with British Election Study data. The evidence shows that there is a close relationship between the state of the economy and political support, and the implication is that the coalition parties are likely to lose the next election if the economy does not improve.
Affluence, Austerity and Electoral Change in Britain investigates the political economy of party support for British political parties since Tony Blair led New Labour to power in 1997. Using valence politics models of electoral choice and marshalling an unprecedented wealth of survey data collected in the British Election Study's monthly Continuous Monitoring Surveys, the authors trace forces affecting support for New Labour during its thirteen years in office. They then study how the recessionary economy has influenced the dynamics of party support since the Conservative–Liberal Democrat Coalition came to power in May 2010 and factors that shaped voting in Britain's May 2011 national referendum on changing the electoral system. Placing Britain in comparative perspective with cross-national survey data gathered in the midst of the worst recession since the 1930s, the authors investigate how the economic crisis has affected support for incumbent governments and democratic politics in over twenty European countries.
This is a comprehensive study of the 2015 general election in Britain designed not only for students and scholars of British politics, but also for the interested reader. It looks at the record of the Coalition government both in terms of its plans and performance, particularly in relation to the economy, as the starting point for understanding what happened. The authors go on to examine the campaign during the run-up to polling day and to explain why people voted the way they did. They also take a close look at the various constituency battlegrounds across the country showing how and why voting patterns varied across Britain. Finally, they discuss the implications of the election outcome for the future of the party system and British politics more generally. This book provides important insights into an election which has permanently changed the political geography of Britain.
In a world of increasing austerity measures, democratic politics comes under pressure. With the need to consolidate budgets and to accommodate financial markets, the responsiveness of governments to voters declines. However, democracy depends on choice. Citizens must be able to influence the course of government through elections and if a change in government cannot translate into different policies, democracy is incapacitated. Many mature democracies are approaching this situation as they confront fiscal crisis. For almost three decades, OECD countries have - in fits and starts - run deficits and accumulated debt. As a result, an ever smaller part of government revenue is available today for discretionary spending and social investment and whichever party comes into office will find its hands tied by past decisions. The current financial and fiscal crisis has exacerbated the long-term shrinking government discretion; projects for political change have lost credibility. Many citizens are aware of this situation: they turn away from party politics and stay at home on Election Day. With contributions from leading scholars in the forefront of sociology, politics and economics, this timely book will be of great interest to students and scholars throughout the social sciences as well as general readers.
Austerity has been at the center of political controversy following the 2008 financial crisis, invoked by politicians and academics across the political spectrum as the answer to, or cause of, our post-crash economic malaise. However, despite being the cause of debate for more than three centuries, austerity remains a poorly understood concept. In this book, Suzanne J. Konzelmann aims to demystify austerity as an economic policy, a political idea, and a social phenomenon. Beginning with an analysis of political and socioeconomic history from the seventeenth century, she explains the economics of austerity in the context of the overall dynamics of state spending, tax, and debt. Using comparative case studies from around the world, ranging from the 1930s to post-2008, she then evaluates the outcomes of austerity in light of its stated objectives and analyzes the conditions under which it doesn’t – and occasionally does – work. This accessible introduction to austerity will be essential reading for students and scholars of political economy, economics, and politics, as well as all readers interested in current affairs.
The ascendance of austerity policies and the protests they have generated have had a deep impact on the shape of contemporary politics. The stunning electoral successes of SYRIZA in Greece, Podemos in Spain and the Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S) in Italy, alongside the quest for a more radical left in countries such as the UK and the US, bear witness to a new wave of parties that draws inspiration and strength from social movements. The rise of movement parties challenges simplistic expectations of a growing separation between institutional and contentious politics and the decline of the left. Their return demands attention as a way of understanding both contemporary socio-political dynamics and the fundamentals of political parties and representation. Bridging social movement and party politics studies, within a broad concern with democratic theories, this volume presents new empirical evidence and conceptual insight into these topical socio-political phenomena, within a cross-national comparative perspective.
What are the political impacts of austerity policies? This dissertation sheds light on this question by offering five independent but interrelated empirical contributions that seek to understand and explain variegated societal and political resistance and consequences to austerity policies in the wake of the global financial crisis. The first account studies the impact of austerity policy announcements in the electoral arena. The results of time series analysis show that, on average, austerity packages hurt incumbent parties in opinion polls and secondly the magnitude of this electoral punishment is contingent on the economic and political context: in instances of rising unemployment, the involvement of external creditors, and high protest intensity, the cumulative impact of austerity on government popularity becomes considerable. The second study, focusing on the protest arena, demonstrates that austerity also drives people to the streets to voice their discontent. The findings of dynamic fixed-effects models demonstrate that people reacted more vehemently to earlier austerity policies while had gradually become disillusioned and no longer mobilised against later ones. Besides, the effect is larger when austerity is accompanied by rising objective and subjective economic grievances, the involvement of external actors, and a higher level of the previous mobilisation. To further understand the why austerity leads to protest, the third study explores the relationship between austerity and economic and political grievances, as well as the joint role of the two types of grievances for the determination of the mobilisation of protest. The fourth study links the consequences of fiscal austerity on electoral and protest politics. Relying on an original dataset containing data of protest event, electoral outcomes and detailed taxation and expenditure data in 30 European countries from 2000 to 2015, the study shows that citizens dislike large deficits and government debt, but they also resist austerity and punish the government, either at polls or in the streets or both, depending on the specific composition of austerity packages and the party colour of the incumbents. For the last study, I zoom in on the interactions between the governments and their challengers in reaction to austerity proposals by examining contentious episodes that have been unleashed by the governments' austerity proposals. The results of a panel vector autoregression analysis reveal that the relationship of contentious interactions between actors and government popularity is not uni-directional but endogenous, and each plays a critical and interdependent role in the system in shaping the dynamics of the contentious policymaking process. In synthesis, the dissertation endeavours to investigate the political resistance against austerity in two important theoretical arenas. The central argument of this dissertation is that austerity does induce resistance from the citizens, both at polls and in the streets. Moreover, the magnitude of the politicalimpact of austerity depends on other economic, social and political factors.
The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on highly political issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. In the face of uncertainty over the sustainability of recent economic policies, further contributions to this volume discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy. A direct intervention in timely debates, Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis offers invaluable insights about various responses to the recent financial crisis.
In Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea, Mark Blyth, a renowned scholar of political economy, provides a powerful and trenchant account of the shift toward austerity policies by governments throughout the world since 2009. The issue is at the crux about how to emerge from the Great Recession, and will drive the debate for the foreseeable future.