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Microcredit, rural credit market, household over-indebtedness, multiple borrowing, Thailand, Vietnam. - Mikrokredite, ländlicher Kreditmarkt, Haushaltsüberschuldung, mehrfache Kreditaufnahme
Does multiple borrowing lead micro-borrowers into over-indebtednes? Do over-indebted micro-borrowers take loans to refinance existing loans that are ultimately unpayable and get trapped in a vicious circle of debt? Using a longitudinal household survey data, this study addresses such questions by examining the dynamic interdependency between over-indebtedness and multiple borrowing in the context of micro-borrowers in Thailand and Vietnam. Specifically, the trues state dependence and cross-state dependence effects of over-indebtedness and multiple borrowing are tested using the dynamic random effect bivariate probit model while controlling for observed and unobserved household heterogeneity. Results suggest that taking multiple borrowing simultaneously does positively influence household's risk of becoming over-indebted in Thailand, while in Vietnam it has no significant influence on household's risk of over-indebtedness. Although households reported of taking multiple loans to repay old debts, the empirical results do not support the premises that over-indebtedness reinforces households to refinance ultimately unpayable debts and trap households into a perpetual debt cycle.
This study aims to explore cross-country differences in credit market participation, level of household debt holding and over-indebtedness between rural households in Thailand and Vietnam. Using a unique rural household survey data from “Vulnerability in Southeast Asia” project, it first identifies socio-economic determinants of such market outcomes for rural households in Thailand and Vietnam. It decomposes differences into a part that arise due to configuration of household characteristics or a part that arise due to differences in economic environments using three decomposition methods. Significant differences are observed in credit market participation rates and level of debt holding and indebtedness between rural households in Thailand and Vietnam. Rural households in Thailand tend to participate more in the credit market and face higher risk of over-indebtedness. These observed differences arise mainly due to dissimilarity in the economic environment for households with similar characteristics. Economically disadvantaged rural households in Thailand are more likely to participate in the credit market and face higher level of indebtedness mainly because credit markets are make borrowing easy. The higher gap observed in the upper part of the debt distribution between Thailand and Vietnam can be explained by differences in credit market conditions between the two countries.
The growing indebtedness of households reported over the last 30 years and in most developed countries has serious economic and social implications. This book provides insight into the concepts, measures, and determinants of household indebtedness, over-indebtedness, and well-being by integrating theoretical perspectives, adopting recent analytical methods, and using a sample of Polish households. The authors identified the socio-demographic and economic characteristics of indebted and over-indebted households, as well as the basic characteristics of indebtedness and the differences in its subjective perception among over-indebted households and those that are not over-indebted. They determined the spatial differentiation of over-indebtedness, examining the relationship between economic, social and behavioural factors and over-indebtedness and the role of over-indebtedness in shaping the economic well-being of households. The results of a questionnaire conducted on a sample of Polish households and econometric modelling served as the basis for assessing the economic well-being of indebted households. This assessment was conducted with the use of a composite well-being indicator developed by the authors. Given the multidimensional nature of the issues being analysed, the authors offer an approach that accounts for two separate but overlapping dimensions of economic well-being, namely material and financial, and two ways of assessing each of them: objective and subjective. The book holds appeal for researchers, scholars, and students of economics, finance, consumer economics, and economic psychology and offers practical guidance for policymakers and advisors who deal with consumer affairs.
With the current global crisis, high levels of volatility in trade, capital flows, commodity prices, aid, and the looming threat of climate change, this book brings together high-quality research and presents conceptual issues and empirical results to analyze the determinants of the vulnerability to poverty in developing countries.
Provides in-depth evaluation of the development of rural life in Viet Nam over the past decade, combining a unique primary source of time-series panel data with the best micro-econometric analytical tools available.
Thirty years of Ä?ổi Má»›i (economic renovation) reforms have catapulted Vietnam from the ranks of the world’s poorest countries to one of its great development success stories. Critical ingredients have been visionary leaders, a sense of shared societal purpose, and a focus on the future. Starting in the late 1980s, these elements were successfully fused with the embrace of markets and the global economy. Economic growth since then has been rapid, stable, and inclusive, translating into strong welfare gains for the vast majority of the population. But three decades of success from reforms raises expectations for the future, as aptly captured in the Vietnamese constitution, which sets the goal of “a prosperous people and a strong, democratic, equitable, and civilized country.†? There is a firm aspiration that by 2035, Vietnam will be a modern and industrialized nation moving toward becoming a prosperous, creative, equitable, and democratic society. The Vietnam 2035 report, a joint undertaking of the Government of Vietnam and the World Bank Group, seeks to better comprehend the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. It shows that the country’s aspirations and the supporting policy and institutional agenda stand on three pillars: balancing economic prosperity with environmental sustainability; promoting equity and social inclusion to develop a harmonious middle- class society; and enhancing the capacity and accountability of the state to establish a rule of law state and a democratic society. Vietnam 2035 further argues that the rapid growth needed to achieve the bold aspirations will be sustained only if it stands on faster productivity growth and reflects the costs of environmental degradation. Productivity growth, in turn, will benefit from measures to enhance the competitiveness of domestic enterprises, scale up the benefits of urban agglomeration, and build national technological and innovative capacity. Maintaining the record on equity and social inclusion will require lifting marginalized groups and delivering services to an aging and urbanizing middle-class society. And to fulfill the country’s aspirations, the institutions of governance will need to become modern, transparent, and fully rooted in the rule of law.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
With the adoption of new market-oriented policies, Vietnam has transformed itself from one of the world's poorest countries during the 1980s, into an economy with one of the highest growth rates during the 1990s. Using macroeconomic and household survey data, this publication examines a range of issues including: the causes of Vietnam's economic growth and future prospects; the impact on household welfare and poverty levels, school enrolment, child health and other socioeconomic outcomes; and the nature of poverty in Vietnam and the effectiveness of government policies for poverty reduction, drawing lessons for Vietnam and for other low-income developing countries.