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Master's Thesis from the year 2009 in the subject Business economics - General, grade: A, Vanderbilt University (Graduate Program in Economic Development), course: Masters in Economics, language: English, abstract: This study explores the relationship between financial growth and economic development in India using time series data over the period 1950-2007. The majority of the previous studies on this subject have used cross-sectional data, which may not address country specific issues. In addition, many studies used either OLS technique of estimation or bi-variate causality test and may, therefore suffer from the omission-of variable bias. This study attempts to examine the dynamic relationship between financial growth and economic development by including a range of financial variables like, quasi money for monetization, domestic credit for financial intermediation activities and bank asset for financial intermediary institutions. The casual relationship between economic development and financial growth indicators was examined with the help of Granger-Causality procedure based on Unrestricted Vector Auto Regression using the error correction term. The result from the cointegration tests indicates that financial development has a long-run equilibrium with economic growth. The financial sector and real sector move and evolve together in the same direction. The error correction model suggests that, in the short-run, the output variable is the only effective adjustment factor in the system that responds to the fluctuations of financial measures and domestic capital formation. On the other hand, the response of financial intensities and investments are sluggish adjustments that correct the deviation from equilibrium. In nutshell, this study shows that India’s financial development and economic growth are positively correlated; the process of economic development is not sustainable without the contributions of the financial sector and vice versa.
This paper examines the empirical relationship between long–run growth and the degree of financial development, proxied by the ratio of bank credit to the private sector as a fraction of GDP. We find that this proxy enters significantly and with a positive sign in growth regressions on a large cross–country sample, but with a negative sign using panel data for Latin America. Our findings suggest that the main channel of transmission from financial development to growth is the efficiency of investment, rather than its volume. We also present a model where the negative correlation between financial intermediation and growth results from financial liberalization in a poor regulatory environment.
This study examines the long-run relationship between the financial development, investment and economic growth for the Indian economy during the period from 1971-72 to 2010-11 by applying Lee and Strazicich (2003 and 2004) unit root test that allows for endogenously determined structural breaks in the series, Gregory and Hansen (1996) cointegration technique that also allows for endogenously determined structural breaks in the relationship and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model of Pesaran and Shin (1999). The empirical results indicate that financial depth, measured as ratio of total bank deposit liabilities to lagged GDP, share of investment in GDP, and real deposit rate have a long-run equilibrium relationship with both economic development measured by real GDP and its one period relative growth rate. However, the relationship between financial depth and economic growth is found to be insignificant. In other words, the estimated results support the view of Lucas (1988) that financial development does not matter for economic growth.
‘This book is different from most other attempts to understand the politics of Indian economic development. Breaking down the last 65+ years of Indian development into several episodes of growth, it provides a rich set of insights into the political economy of the Indian development process and is a valuable addition to the literature.’ –Pranab Bardham, University of California, Berkeley, USA ‘Sustained economic growth in the world's largest democracy is critically important to human well-being, but the ups and downs of growth in India are not well-understood. This book provides a fresh and insightful approach to understanding what drives the starts of booms and the onset of slowdowns.’ –Lant Pritchett, Harvard University, USA ‘This is a little book with big arguments. The authors' explanation of the changing character of the deals done between political and business elites makes for the most original contribution to studies of the political economy of Indian development since Pranab Bardhan's seminal work of the early 1980s’ –John Harriss, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, Canada This book moves beyond the usual economic analysis of the Indian growth story and provides a fresh perspective on the determinants of growth episodes in post-independence India, based on its political economy. Using a robust and novel technique, the authors identify four such episodes during this period. The first, running from the 1950s to 1992, was mostly characterized by economic stagnation, with a nascent recovery in the eighties. The second, covering the period 1993 to 2001, witnessed the first growth acceleration in the economy. A second acceleration ran from 2002 to 2010. The fourth and final episode started with the slowdown in 2010 and continues to this day. The book provides a theoretical framework that focuses on rent-structures, institutions and the polity, and demonstrates how changes in these can explain the four growth episodes. Kar and Sen argue that the transitions from one growth episode to another can be explained by the bi-directional relationship between growth outcomes and institutional arrangements, and by the manner in which institutional arrangements and their transitions are determined by the political bargains struck between the elite groups in Indian society.
The paper investigates the empirical link between financial development and economic growth in India. The major objective of this paper is to highlight the structural changes in the Financial Policies, which mainly comprises money and banking sector, during the reform policy promotes economic growth, and financial development and stability. The achievements of these objectives require that financial conditions are such that allocative efficiency is ensured. For this monetary policy should be supplemented by financial sector reforms. We examine theoretically and empirically the McKinnon-Shaw model in India. According to McKinnon, a basic complementarity exists between money and physical capital. The model predicts that a high real investment and promote economic growth. The view stands in sharp contrast with the Neo Classical and Keynesian view which contend that lowering the interest rate will stimulate investment and economic growth. Using time-series data for India for the period of 41 years (1971-2012) i.e. testing unit roots, Co-integration developed by Johanson & Jusilius (1991) and to detect the Causality and to short run and long run dynamics we use the VECM methodology. It traces the positive relationship empirically between Financial Development, GDP, real interest rates, nominal Deposit Rate, Trade Openness in India. Results support continued financial development with effective macroeconomic management. Therefore, this study concludes that policy measures for infrastructure improvements should be taken into account to make financial sectors more vibrant to invigorate economic growth.
Over the past 25 years, India's economy grew at an average real rate of close to 6 percent, with growth rates in recent years accelerating to 9 percent. Yet by 2005-06, the general government debt-to-GDP ratio was 34 percentage points higher than in the 1980s. The authors examine the links between public finances and growth in the post-1991 period. They argue that the main factor in the deterioration of government debt dynamics after the mid-1990s was a reform-induced loss in trade, customs, and financial repression taxes. Over time, these very factors plus lower entry barriers have contributed to stronger microfoundations for growth by increasing competition and hardening budget constraints for firms and financial sector institutions. The authors suggest that the impressive growth acceleration of the past few years, which is now lowering government indebtedness, can be attributed to the lagged effects of these factors, which have taken time to attain a critical mass in view of India's gradual reforms. Similarly, the worsening of public finances during the late 1990s can be attributed to the cumulative effects of tax losses, the negative growth effects of cuts in capital expenditure that were made to offset the tax losses, and a pullback in private investment (hence, growth and taxes), a situation which is now turning around. Insufficient capital expenditures have contributed to the infrastructure gap, which is seen as a constraint especially for rapid growth in manufacturing. The authors discuss ongoing reforms in revenue mobilization and fiscal adjustment at the state level, which if successfully implemented, will result in a better alignment of public finances with growth by generating further fiscal space for infrastructure and other development spending.
In the light of the recent observation that the relationship between financial development and economic growth is one of non-linear and limitations of granger test, this paper re-examined relationship in the framework of non-linear Granger causality employing (Diks and Panchenko in Stud Nonlinear Dyn Econ 9(2), 2006) test. The limitation of non-stationarity of earlier study is also addressed using the Toda and Yamamoto (J Econ 66:225-250, 1995) test. The present study attempts to undertake this exercise, as causal inference is sensitive to the twin limitations of non-stationarity and non-linearity. We used principal component analysis to construct index of financial development comprising alternative measures of financial development. The analysis has been carried out for the period 1990-2010. The results of Toda-Yamamoto and Diks-Panchenko tests reveal that financial development and economic growth bear no causal relationship, a finding contrary to the findings of several of the existing studies in the Grangerian framework.
This proceedings volume highlights important points of achieving a balanced and sustained growth path from diverse economics and finance perspectives, touching on a wide array of economic and social analyses in India. Featuring contributions presented at the 2018 International Conference on Economics and Finance (ICEF-2018) held at the Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani, Goa, India, the enclosed papers explore topics such as inflation dynamics, information transmission in post-recession era, leverage effect and volatility asymmetry, structural change and economic growth and reforming tax systems, among others. The Indian economy today is remarkable and, not surprisingly, it is growing very rapidly. It has emerged as the fastest growing major economy in the world as per the Central Statistical Organization (CSO) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) and it is expected to be one of the top three economic powers of the world over the next 10 to15 years, backed by its strong democracy and partnership. At the backdrop of impressive progress of the Indian economy during the last two decades, the question that remains to be answered is does India still have a long way to go before it is functioning well as a market economy? This book critically examines the performance of the Indian economy at the national, state and sectorial levels. Featuring contributions from leading academicians, scholars and practitioners from Asia and the rest of the world, this book is an asset to students, professors, scholars, practitioners and policy makers in the areas of India economics, finance and sustainable development.