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The U.S. Air Force (USAF) needs accurate models to develop retention policies that ensure the force has a sufficient number of experienced officers to meet current and future requirements. The dynamic retention model (DRM) can be used to take into account the effect of the availability of multi-year contracts to certain classes of Air Force officers. Unlike the annualized cost of leaving (ACOL) model long used by researchers working on USAF personnel issues, the DRM takes into account the value an officer may place on future career flexibility in the face of uncertainty, and thus is particularly well suited to examining the effect of bonus programs that have service commitments, such as the Aviator Continuation Pay (ACP) program, which pays an annual bonus to pilots and certain groups of navigators and air battle managers who commit to extend their service for specified numbers of years or to a specified length of service.
This report describes the theory and methodology for estimating the parameters of a dynamic retention model for Air Force officers. The model was designed to estimate voluntary retention rates under a broad range of compensation, retirement, and personnel policies. It is a decisions model of the decisionmaking process of individuals making stay/leave decisions over time in an uncertain environment, which allows it to predict policy changes that have no historical analogues. The report presents the theory and estimated parameters of the model, compares actual retention rates and those predicted by the model, and two competing models, and examines five illustrative changes in compensation policies. (Author).
The USAir Force human capital management (HCM) system is not easily defined or mapped. It affects virtually every part of the Air Force because workforce policies, procedures, and processes impact all offices and organizations that include Airmen and responsibilities and relationships change regularly. To ensure the readiness of Airmen to fulfill the mission of the Air Force, strategic approaches are developed and issued through guidance and actions of the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower, Personnel and Services and the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Manpower and Reserve Affairs. Strengthening US Air Force Human Capital Management assesses and strengthens the various U.S. Air Force initiatives and programs working to improve person-job match and human capital management in coordinated support of optimal mission capability. This report considers the opportunities and challenges associated with related interests and needs across the USAF HCM system as a whole, and makes recommendations to inform improvements to USAF personnel selection and classification and other critical system components across career trajectories. Strengthening US Air Force Human Capital Management offers the Air Force a strategic approach, across a connected HCM system, to develop 21st century human capital capabilities essential for the success of 21st century Airmen.
Over the past ten years, maintenance career fields in the U.S. Air Force have been negatively affected by a series of events that have resulted in an experience shortage. Although there has been an improvement in Total Force manning since 2015, several skill levels are still experiencing shortages. To bridge the experience shortfall, the U.S. Government Accountability Office called for an Air Force retention strategy tailored to retain experienced maintainers. The RAND Corporation was asked to explore whether individual characteristics, economic and geographic factors, and the new Blended Retirement System (BRS) could provide additional insights into what predicts retention of this workforce. This report focuses primarily on aircraft maintenance career fields, with some attention to munitions and logistics career fields as resources permitted. The authors undertake two analytic approaches to examine the underlying determinants of retention. First, they use logistic regression to determine how strongly a variety of individual and environmental characteristics are associated with decisions to reenlist, extend an enlistment, or separate from the Air Force; second, they use RAND's Dynamic Retention Model to estimate how the new BRS will affect maintenance, munitions, and logistics career fields when those in the new system reach retention decision points. The authors find that changes in individual characteristics and environmental variables have improved retention in the maintenance, munitions, and logistics career fields. Although much of what influences retention is beyond the Air Force's control, the authors offer a number of recommendations and identify areas of emphasis that could be exploited.
RAND Project Air Force was tasked with developing a new capability for planners: a retention early warning system (REWS) that alerts policymakers when a subgroup of U.S. Air Force (USAF) military members is at risk for future shortages. The goal of the research project was to develop a forecasting model for retention, operationalized within a prototype decision-support application, that can alert decisionmakers to emerging problems and thus allow them enough time to consider adjusting accession and retention policies before shortages occur. The authors' overall approach to designing the system drew on widely used paradigms for solving data science problems. These paradigms emphasize understanding the business problem, drawing on a wide array of data sources and types, testing several flexible prediction approaches to optimize performance, and operationalizing the information for decisionmaking. To gain an understanding of the data sources that would be desirable for this application, the authors performed an extensive review of the turnover literature and identified gaps in existing USAF data collection efforts.
Since Hurricane Katrina, resignations from the New Orleans Police Department (NOPD) have increased, and the department went more than a year without recruiting enough candidates to justify a police academy training course. The authors present practical recommendations for change that could help the NOPD improve recruiting and retention. Issues addressed include the lack of affordable post-Katrina housing, the fact that the families of many police officers no longer live in the New Orleans area, the destroyed departmental infrastructure, and a budget that does not provide enough resources to meet basic needs. They focus on compensation, including housing; the promotion process and the career management system; recruiting; the mix of officers and civilians; and ways to improve the morale of the NOPD. The recommendations, which are specifically tailored to the unique circumstances of the NOPD, include (1) using civilian employees, where appropriate, for jobs currently being performed by uniformed officers; (2) developing a proactive recruiting program; (3) offering some of the city's housing stock in-kind to police officers or selling the property and using the proceeds to improve compensation; (4) increasing the frequency of promotion examinations; (5) eliminating the backlog of promotions to higher levels in the department; (6) restructuring compensation to attract recruits and retain serving officers; (7) establishing a first-responders charter school; and (8) rebuilding the police infrastructure to improve morale.
A guide to the continually evolving field of labour economics.
The Routledge Handbook of Defence Studies provides a comprehensive collection of essays on contemporary defence studies by leading international scholars. Defence studies is a multi-disciplinary study of how agents, predominantly states, prepare for and go to war. Whereas security studies has been broadened and stretched to cover at times the near totality of international and domestic affairs, and war studies has come to mean not just operations and tactics but also experiences and outcomes, defence studies remains a coherent area of study primarily aimed at how defence policy changes over time and in relation to stimulating factors such as alterations in power, strategy and technology. This new Handbook offers a complete landscape of this area of study and contributes to a review of defence studies in terms of policy, security and war, but also looks forward to new challenges to existing conceptions of defence and how this is changing as states and their militaries also change. The volume is divided into four thematic sections: Defence as Policy; Defence Practice; Operations and Tactics; and Contemporary Defence Issues. The ability to review the field while also looking forward to further research is an important element of a sustainable text on defence studies. In as much as this volume is able to highlight the main themes of defence studies, it also offers an in-depth look into how defence issues can be examined and compared in a contemporary setting. This Handbook will be of great interest to students of defence studies, strategic studies, war studies, security studies and IR.
This volume is the proceedings of a symposium entitled, "Strategic Human Resource Planning Applications" which was held at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia on December 4-6, 1985. The meeting was sponsored by the Research Committee of the Human Resource Planning Society. In developing the symposi~m, the Research Committee built upon a study which resulted in a broad research agenda for the Society. The thrust of that research agenda was emphasis on linking the state-of- practice with the state-of-the-art. In the case of the symposium emphasiS was on the presentation of forward looking applications which could help member organizations link current practice with the research frontier. The meeting had sessions on (1) Description of Issues, (2) Human Resource Costs and Strategy, (3) Case Studies of Strategic Planning, (4) Computer Technology and Office Automation, (4) Large Scale Forecasting and Compensation Issues, (5) Models for Policy Analysis, (6) Work Force Optimization, (7) Implementation of Information Processing Activities, (8) Productivity Analysis, and (9) Relationship of Strategy to Practice. Thirty papers were presented with discussion sessions at appropriate points in the m~eting. This volume contains 18 of these papers along with an introductory paper. A short summary is also provided at the beginning of each major subdivision into which the papers are arraigned.