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South Africa's leading economists adopt within this volume a sectoral approach in their analysis of the drastic changes that have occurred within the South African economy since 1970. The book illustrates how, despite its sophisticated infrastructure, the South African economy has shared in the economic decline - resulting from misguided economic policies - that has been the experience of Sub-Saharan Africa. The contributors argue that the failure of manufacturing to maintain the country's economic growth, once the output of the gold mines began to decline, is central to an understanding of events and outcomes in the economy. Government policy towards manufacturing has played a major part in the decline of the South African economy, but this has, however, tended to be overlooked as a result of the turbulence generated by the political events unfolding in South Africa.
While sharing some characteristics with other middle-income countries, South Africa is a country with a unique economic history and distinctive economic features. It is a regional economic powerhouse that plays a significant role, not only in southern Africa and in the continent, but also as a member of BRICS. However, there has been a lack of structural transformation and weak economic growth, and South Africa faces the profound triple challenges of poverty, inequality, and unemployment. Any meaningful debate about economic policies to address these challenges needs to be informed by a deep understanding of historical developments, robust empirical evidence, and rigorous analysis of South Africa's complex economic landscape. This volume seeks to provide a wide-ranging set of original, detailed, and state-of-the-art analytical perspectives that contribute to scientific knowledge as well as to well-informed and productive discourse on the South African economy. While concentrating on the more recent economic issues facing South Africa, the handbook also provides historical and political context. It offers an in-depth examination of strategic issues in the country's key economic sectors, and brings together diverse analytical perspectives.
The theme of the book is how efficient economic organisation with clearly defined property rights in the framework of a market economy has made possible the development of the South African economy. The book is divided into three periods: 1910-33, 1933-61 and 1961-90. Each of them begins with a brief survey of the growth of population and GDP which is then followed by a more detailed sectoral analysis. The book represents an important general survey of the South African economy in the twentieth century and as such will be required reading for all interested in the making of the modern South African economy.
As the South African economy emerges from the downturn induced by COVID-19, policy makers are concerned with recovery, reconstruction, and transformation. This paper focuses on the recovery from the severely depressed levels of economic activity that occurred in April 2020. However, before considering the period after the economic trough of April 2020, a mention of economic conditions prior to the pandemic is worthwhile. In brief, economic performance was terrible by almost any metric. Furthermore, economic performance had been poor since 2008, with evidence pointing to ongoing deterioration culminating in the fourth quarter of 2019, when per capita GDP contracted, unemployment ticked upwards to its highest level since 1994, productivity declined, and inequality worsened. The striking difficulties of the South African economy in avoiding/absorbing shocks-whether internally generated, such as shocks to electricity supply, or externally generated, such as changes in terms of trade or investor sentiment in relation to emerging markets-have been an integral part of this disappointing economic performance over time. In short, the situation prevailing prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic was one of economic weakness. Beginning from this position of weakness, the economic shock related to COVID-19 was enormous, likely the largest single economic shock in the history of South Africa. According to official statistics, GDP in the second quarter of 2020 was approximately 17% below the level registered in the second quarter of 2019. In assessing this shock, it is important to recall that GDP is a flow concept. One can, in principle, consider the volume of flow over any arbitrary period: a day, a week, a month, a quarter, a semester, a year, and so forth. The lockdown associated with COVID-19 precipitated an extraordinarily rapid decline in economic activity. Indeed, the available analytics and data point to a trough in economic activity, or flow value of GDP, at less than 70% of the level that would have pertained in the absence of the pandemic, or a greater than 30% decline in the flow rate of GDP (Arndt et al 2020). If we accept a 17% reduction as the average flow rate of GDP over the quarter and we accept that the economic shock related to COVID-19 was unprecedently rapid and drove a decline in the flow value of GDP of much more than 17% at the trough (which probably occurred sometime in late April or early May), then we must also accept a rapid recovery in economic activity in May and June in order to achieve an average decline of 17% over the quarter. Furthermore, this relatively rapid recovery continued. GDP in the third quarter of 2020 was “only” about 6% below the levels recorded for the third quarter of 2019, with the corresponding figure for the fourth quarter at about 4%. Other figures, including recent ones, broadly support this basic story. For example, retail sales in February 2021 were up 2.4% year-on-year, with the previous two months, January and December, having registered only a slight decline year-on-year. Correspondingly, manufacturing production and sales were down by 2.1% in February 2021 year-on-year. A few broad observations emerge from this history and the available data. First, the South African economy has exhibited more resilience to the COVID-19 shock than performance up to December 2019 might have led one to expect. In Mexico, for example, the distance between fourth quarter GDP in 2020 and that in 2019 was greater than for the same comparison in South Africa. At the same time, Mexico registered close to twice as many deaths related to COVID-19 per million population as South Africa. Second, multiplier effects are important. As discussed in Arndt et al (2020), multiplier effects accounted for the bulk of the initial economic contraction. However, they also operate positively, buoying the recovery experienced to date and bringing economic activity back towards the levels of 2019. Third, while having GDP about 4% down year-on-year is much better than the 17% decline observed in the second quarter, 4% down is still a deep recession by ordinary standards. While some sectors are producing at close to levels observed in the fourth quarter of 2019, others are more strongly affected. The incidence of these depressed levels of economic activity remains likely to be tilted toward lower-income households, which are more vulnerable to begin with. Overall, there remains substantial slack in the economy, multiplier effects still apply, and many households remain deeply vulnerable to severe economic hardship.
Recession, inflation, interest rates, income tax, exchange rates ... We are bombarded with these terms every day - by newspapers, the radio, TV and the internet - but what do they actually mean? And how do they impact on you? In this updated edition of Everyone’s Guide to the South African Economy, all these issues - and more - are addressed. The book clearly explains and evaluates a wide range of economic occurrences - from the budget and the rand/dollar exchange rate to the balance of payments and the role of the South African Reserve Bank. The book investigates the causes and consequences of the 2008/2009 global financial and economic crisis, looks at the sub-Saharan African economy, and explores human development issues in South Africa and their implications for policy-making. If you are baffled by the specialised jargon of economists and bankers and want to know more about the economic forces that subtly dictate your day-to-day existence, Everyone’s Guide to the South African Economy will put you in the picture. This is essential reading for every South African consumer and taxpayer. Economics, after all, is too important to be left to economists.
52 entries by leading economists from within and working on South Africa bringing together perspectives on a range of issues: micro, macro, sectoral, country wide and global.
South Africa still faces low economic growth and high unemployment, coupled with the persistent challenges of poverty and inequality. These exert pressure on South Africa to foster structural transformation that will facilitate a more inclusive and resilient economy. Authors apply multiple theoretical and empirical perspectives to take stock of the historical and contemporary structure of the South African economy, its evolving nature and possible future pathways. The explore how South Africa's structural transformation agenda is affected by the global context, and discuss debates on the extreme social impacts of globalised and financialised economic structures. Contributors offer technical and analytical discussions of the overlapping structural faultlines that produce uneven economic performance. They explain the changes and continuities of South Africa's economic structure, bound by an analytical thread that centres power relations and political settlements. Varied chapters explain how poor governance and corruption have slowed down structural reform. This has been further exacerbated by the inconsistent availability of energy and the deterioration of logistics. The book details the structural reforms and policy regimes necessary for increasing productive capacity in South Africa's agriculture, manufacturing, agro-processing. retail and services, energy and mining industries. It also reflects on the role that micro- and informal enterprises can play if afforded the necessary support. The technical details and analyses in the book highlight the need for a radical review of macroeconomic policy to reduce the country's chronic vulnerability to poverty and inequality.
In sub-Saharan Africa, older people make up a relatively small fraction of the total population and are supported primarily by family and other kinship networks. They have traditionally been viewed as repositories of information and wisdom, and are critical pillars of the community but as the HIV/AIDS pandemic destroys family systems, the elderly increasingly have to deal with the loss of their own support while absorbing the additional responsibilities of caring for their orphaned grandchildren. Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa explores ways to promote U.S. research interests and to augment the sub-Saharan governments' capacity to address the many challenges posed by population aging. Five major themes are explored in the book such as the need for a basic definition of "older person," the need for national governments to invest more in basic research and the coordination of data collection across countries, and the need for improved dialogue between local researchers and policy makers. This book makes three major recommendations: 1) the development of a research agenda 2) enhancing research opportunity and implementation and 3) the translation of research findings.