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This 1986 book examines some of the main issues that have characterized macroeconomics: the debate between 'monetarists' and 'Keynesians'; the response to demand shocks and supply shocks, by which the monetary authorities control aggregrate nominal income and the use and relevance of the money supply as a target; and the consumption function and the determinants of wealth. It shows that Keynesian stabilization policies succeeded in reducing instability due to demand shocks dramatically, but that no aggregrate demand policy can stabilize both price and employment simultaneously after a supply shock. However, by assigning an overall 'social cost' to (excess) unemployment and (initially) unexpected inflation, an optimism path can be derived. In looking at the consumption function and determinants of wealth the empirical evidence is shown to be most consistent with the life-cycle hypothesis. A concluding section is devoted to the impact on private and national society of the 'social security revolution'.
Brings together Buiter's major papers on macroeconomic theory and policy
The role and conduct of macroeconomic policy is examined in the light of recent developments in theory. The first Chapter of the book is concerned with the debate about the nature and causes of unemployment and inflation. The second section investigates the theory of monetary and fiscal policy in closed and open economics. The final chapter contains a full analysis of macroeconomic interdependence and policy coordination. For advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students of macroeconomic theory and policy. Contents: Introduction: The Theory of Aggregate Demand; Classical Versus Keynesian Economics: The Debate on Underemployment Equilibrium; Aggregate Supply: Monetarism and New Classical Macroeconomics; Aggregate Supply and Stabilization Policies: The Keynesian Perspective; Money, Financial Markets, and Aggregate Demand; Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand; Macroeconomic Policy and the Balance of Payments; Macroeconomic Policy and the Exchange Rate; The Design of Macroeconomic Policy; International Interdependence and Policy Coordination; Bibliography; Author Index; Subject Index.
Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Hassan Bougrine, Louis-Philippe Rochon and the expert contributors to this book explore issues of economic growth and full employment; presenting a clear explanation to stagnation, recessions and crises, including the latest Global Financial Crisis of 2007-8. With a central focus on the role played by government spending, deficits and debt as well as the setting of interest rates, the chapters propose alternative policies that can be used by central banks and fiscal authorities to deal with problems of income inequality, unemployment and slow productivity.
The main focus of this book is the construction and analysis of an integrated macroeconomic model.
Fiscal policy in Latin America has been guided primarily by short-term liquidity targets whose observance was taken as the main exponent of fiscal prudence, with attention focused almost exclusively on the levels of public debt and the cash deficit. Very little attention was paid to the effects of fiscal policy on growth and on macroeconomic volatility over the cycle. Important issues such as the composition of public expenditures (and its effects on growth), the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize cyclical fluctuations, and the currency composition of public debt were largely neglected. As a result, fiscal policy has often amplified cyclical volatility and dampened growth. 'Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth' explores the conduct of fiscal policy in Latin America and its consequences for macroeconomic stability and long-term growth. In particular, the book highlights the procyclical and anti-investment biases embedded in the region's fiscal policies, explores their causes and macroeconomic consequences, and asesses their possible solutions.
There have been large changes in the conduct of aggregate demand policy in the United States over the past fifty years. This paper shows that these changes in policy have resulted largely from changes in policymakers' beliefs about the functioning of the economy and the effects of policy. We document the changes in beliefs using contemporaneous discussions of the economy and policy by monetary and fiscal policymakers and, for the period since the late 1960s, using the Federal Reserve's internal forecasts. We find that policymakers' understanding of the economy has not exhibited steady improvement. Instead, the evidence reveals an evolution from a fairly crude but basically sound worldview in the 1950s, to a more sophisticated but deeply flawed model in the 1960s, to uncertainty and fluctuating beliefs in the 1970s, and finally to the modern worldview of the 1980s and 1990s. We establish a link between policymakers' beliefs and aggregate demand policy by examining narrative evidence on the motivation for key policy choices. We also compare monetary policymakers' choices with the implications of a modern estimated policy rule and show that the main differences are consistent with the changes in beliefs that we observe
Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.