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In this paper, we adopt a cross-country perspective to examine the evolution of capital flows into China, both in terms of volumes and composition. China's inflows have generally been dominated by foreign direct investment (FDI), a pattern that appears to be favorable in light of the recent literature on the experiences of developing countries with financial globalization. We provide a detailed documentation of the evolution of China's capital controls, a proximate determinant of the pattern of capital inflows. We also discuss a number of other intriguing hypotheses that attempt to capture the "deeper" causes underlying China's approach to capital flows. In particular, we argue that some popular mercantilist-type arguments are inconsistent with the facts. We also analyze the recent rapid rise of China's international reserves and discuss its implications. Contrary to some popular perceptions, the dramatic surge in foreign exchange reserves since 2001 is mainly attributable to non-FDI capital inflows, rather than current account surpluses or FDI.
In this paper, we adopt a cross-country perspective to examine the evolution of capital flows into China, both in terms of volumes and composition. China`s inflows have generally been dominated by foreign direct investment (FDI), a pattern that appears to be favorable in light of the recent literature on the experiences of developing countries with financial globalization. We provide a detailed documentation of the evolution of China`s capital controls, a proximate determinant of the pattern of capital inflows. We also discuss a number of other intriguing hypotheses that attempt to capture the deeper causes underlying China`s approach to capital flows. In particular, we argue that some popular mercantilist-type arguments are inconsistent with the facts. We also analyze the recent rapid rise of China`s international reserves and discuss its implications. Contrary to some popular perceptions, the dramatic surge in foreign exchange reserves since 2001 is mainly attributable to non-FDI capital inflows, rather than current account surpluses or FDI.
Since China began its pro-market reform in 1978, its management of capital flows has followed a cautious learning-by-doing approach, guided by the goal of propelling strong economic growth while minimizing risk to stability. Claiming that the country's financial infrastructure is still not ready to deal with large swings of financial flows, China has frequently fine-tuned restrictions of portfolio flows but generally kept a tight rein of those flows. Meanwhile, promoting foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows (and outflows in recent years)--with the aim of accessing foreign management knowhow, technologies, raw material, and markets for exports--has been an important element of China's development strategy. There is some evidence that China's approach of encouraging FDI in strategic locations and sectors while restricting portfolio flows has contributed to its high growth rates since 1994. But that approach also has some problematic legacies. China's FDI policies may have exacerbated a pattern of unbalanced growth between rural and urban areas and rising income inequality. China's gradualist approach toward capital-account liberalization also has retarded the development of an efficient domestic financial market and well-functioning foreign exchange market, which need to be in place for the smooth functioning of a flexible exchange rate system.
This investigation uses state-mobilized globalization as a framework to understand China's capitalism and emergence as a global power.
This volume contains country experiences explained by policy makers and studies by leading experts on causes and consequences of capital flows as well as policies to control these flows. It addresses portfolio flow issues central to open economies, especially emerging markets.
This book takes a unique approach to analysing foreign capital flows. Using the neighbourhood model, it analyzes foreign capital inflows from the perspective of both the source and destination countries. Focusing on China, India and the Caribbean, it explores the direct and spillover effects of foreign capital on the destination countries' economy.
In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in international trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. Not surprisingly, China's economic dynamism has generated considerable attention and concern in the United States and beyond. While some analysts have warned of the potential pitfalls of China's rise—the loss of jobs, for example—others have highlighted the benefits of new market and investment opportunities for US firms. Bringing together an expert group of contributors, China's Growing Role in World Trade undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status. The essays collected here provide detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implications, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment. This volume's careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories clarifies a number of misconceptions, disproves some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of China's trade and what it may mean to the rest of the world.
We examine time-series characteristics of China's capital flows during 1998-2014. More specifically, we employ Kalman filtering state-space models to gauge relative importance of permanent and transitory components in China's overall FDI, equity, bond, other investment, and bank credit flows. Our results show that only in the case of FDI are both gross inflow and net flow dominated by a permanent stochastic level, suggesting that this source of capital is largely permanent. Incorporating covariates into the state-space models, we find that larger difference between RMB onshore and offshore interest rates encourages capital inflows that are dominated by a transitory component. Greater global risk perception, proxied by S&P 500's volatility index, on the other hand, discourages them. These covariates imply that capital control may not be effective in stemming volatile and speculative flows. Our results on bilateral capital flows between China and US also suggest that these flows are less persistent and more volatile during 1998-2014 than previously found based on 1988-1997 data. Our results bear important policy implications as China engages in further reforms in its domestic financial system and greater integration with the world financial system.
This is the third report stemming from the Pardee Center Task Force on Regulating Capital Flows for Long-Run Development, a project of the Global Economic Governance Initiative (GEGI) at Boston University.This report is the collective work of experts examining the benefits and risks of accelerated capital account liberalization in China. The contributing authors - all leading scholars and practitioners from around the world - met at Boston University in February 2014 to discuss the experiences of other emerging market countries that liberalized the capital account in the past to glean lessons for China as it considers this delicate task. This volume is an outcome from that meeting, presenting the authors' perspectives on important aspects of capital account liberalization that China should pay special attention to, not only for its own sake, but also in consideration of the potential impacts that China's actions may have on other emerging markets and the global economy overall.The co-chairs for this Pardee Center Task Force Report are Kevin P. Gallagher, co-director of GEGI; José Antonia Ocampo of the Initiative for Policy Dialogue (IPD) at Columbia University; and Ming Zhang and Yu Yonding of the Institute for World Economics and Politics (IWEP) at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. GEGI, IPD, and IWEP are co-sponsors of this report, and IWEP will oversee publication of a Chinese translation. The Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future and the Center for Finance, Law & Policy at Boston University also provided support for this project.The first two reports of the Pardee Center Task Force on Regulating Capital Flows for Long-Run Development are available at www.bu.edu/publications-library. All three reports and other publications of the Global Economic Governance Initiative are available at www.bu.edu/gegi.
China has experienced a remarkable transformation since the 1990s. It now boasts the second-largest — some would argue the largest — economy in the world, having evolved from a closed economy into the leading goods-trading nation. China’s economic rise has given it increasing prominence in international monetary and financial governance, but it also exposes China to new risks associated with its integration into the global financial system. Drawing insights from economics and political science, Enter the Dragon: China in the International Financial System takes a broad conceptual approach and tackles the questions that accompany China’s ascendance in international finance: What are the motivations and consequences of China’s effort to internationalize the renminbi? What is the political logic underlying China’s foreign financial policy? What forces have shaped China’s preferences and capacities in global financial governance? Enter the Dragon contributes to the ongoing debate over China’s political interests, its agenda for economic and financial cooperation, and the domestic and international implications of its economic rise. Bringing together experts from both inside and outside of China, this volume argues that China’s rise in the international financial system is a highly complex and political process, and can only be understood by incorporating analysis of domestic and international political economy.