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The tensions between the Koreas--and the potential involvement of China, Japan, Russia, and the United States in a Korean conflict--create a nearly open-ended spectrum of possible conflicts. These conflicts could range from posturing and threats to a major conventional conflict on the Korean peninsula, with intervention by outside powers, to the extreme of nuclear conflict. The Korean balance is also affected by the uncertain mix of cooperation and competition between the United States and China, particularly with the U.S. "pivot" toward Asia and the steady modernization of Chinese forces. This new volume, up to date through Spring 2015, provides a detailed examination of the military forces in Northeast Asia--North and South Korea, China, Russia, Japan, and the United States--setting those forces in the larger geostrategic context.
The tensions between the Koreas—and the potential involvement of China, Japan, Russia, and the United States in a Korean conflict—create a nearly open-ended spectrum of possible conflicts. These conflicts could range from posturing and threats to a major conventional conflict on the Korean peninsula, with intervention by outside powers, to the extreme of nuclear conflict. The Korean balance is also affected by the uncertain mix of cooperation and competition between the United States and China, particularly with the U.S. “pivot” toward Asia and the steady modernization of Chinese forces. This new volume, up to date through Spring 2015, provides a detailed examination of the military forces in Northeast Asia—North and South Korea, China, Russia, Japan, and the United States—setting those forces in the larger geostrategic context.
China’s emergence as a global economic superpower, and as a major regional military power in Asia and the Pacific, has had a major impact on its relations with the United States and its neighbors. China was the driving factor in the new strategy the United States announced in 2012 that called for a “rebalance” of U.S. forces to the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, China’s actions on its borders, in the East China Sea, and in the South China Sea have shown that it is steadily expanding its geopolitical role in the Pacific and having a steadily increasing impact on the strategy and military developments in other Asian powers.
China’s military development has become a key focus of US security policy as well as that of virtually all Asia-Pacific states. This report from the CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy examines trends in Chinese strategy, military spending, and military forces based on Chinese defense white papers and other official Chinese sources; US reporting by the Department of Defense and other defense agencies; and other government sources, including Japanese and Korean defense white papers and the International Monetary Fund. The analysis also draws on the work of experts outside of government, various research centers, and nongovernmental organizations.
The Evolving Military Balance in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia describes the strategy, force deployments, and the military balance in potential current and future scenarios involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Republic of Korea, People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the United States. The analysis in these volumes shows how tensions between the Koreas—and the potential involvement of the China, Japan, Russia, and the United States—create a nearly open-ended spectrum of possible conflicts. These range from posturing and threats (“wars of intimidation”) to a major conventional conflict on the Korean Peninsula to intervention by outside powers like the United States and China to the extreme of nuclear conflict. The analysis shows that the Korean balance is sharply affected by the uncertain mix of cooperation and competition between the United States and China. The U.S. rebalancing of its forces to Asia and the steady modernization of Chinese forces, in particular the growth of Chinese sea-air-missile capabilities, affect the balance in the Koreas and Northeast Asia. They also raise the possibility of far more intense conflicts that could extend far beyond the boundaries of the Koreas.
The Evolving Military Balance in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia describes the strategy, force deployments, and the military balance in potential current and future scenarios involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Republic of Korea, People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the United States. The analysis in these volumes shows how tensions between the Koreas—and the potential involvement of the China, Japan, Russia, and the United States—create a nearly open-ended spectrum of possible conflicts. These range from posturing and threats (“wars of intimidation”) to a major conventional conflict on the Korean Peninsula to intervention by outside powers like the United States and China to the extreme of nuclear conflict. The analysis shows that the Korean balance is sharply affected by the uncertain mix of cooperation and competition between the United States and China. The U.S. rebalancing of its forces to Asia and the steady modernization of Chinese forces, in particular the growth of Chinese sea-air-missile capabilities, affect the balance in the Koreas and Northeast Asia. They also raise the possibility of far more intense conflicts that could extend far beyond the boundaries of the Koreas.
This report describes the key results of an analysis conducted to assess the overall balance of forces on the Korean Peninsula. Given the complexity of relations between the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), such an assessment of the conventional, asymmetric, and CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear) capabilities on each side is vital to negotiations between states and efforts at arms control. At the same time, there is no one Korean military balance that can be used for policy planning or arms control negotiations until decisions are made about what forces and issues to address. The tensions between the Koreas -- and the potential involvement of the People's Republic of China, Japan, and the United States at both the political and military level -- create a virtually open-ended spectrum of possible conflicts. This is particularly true if one considers the number of times that war has grown out of unpredictable incidents and patterns of escalation, the historical reality that the probability of less likely forms of war actually occurring has been consistently higher than what seem to be the most probable contingencies in peacetime, and the patterns of escalation that seem most likely from the viewpoint of a "rational bargainer."
Nearly half a century after the fighting stopped, the 1953 Armistice has yet to be replaced with a peace treaty formally ending the Korean War. While Russia and China withdrew the last of their forces in 1958, the United States maintains 37,000 troops in South Korea and is pledged to defend it with nuclear weapons. In Korean Endgame, Selig Harrison mounts the first authoritative challenge to this long-standing U.S. policy. Harrison shows why North Korea is not--as many policymakers expect--about to collapse. And he explains why existing U.S. policies hamper North-South reconciliation and reunification. Assessing North Korean capabilities and the motivations that have led to its forward deployments, he spells out the arms control concessions by North Korea, South Korea, and the United States necessary to ease the dangers of confrontation, centering on reciprocal U.S. force redeployments and U.S. withdrawals in return for North Korean pullbacks from the thirty-eighth parallel. Similarly, he proposes specific trade-offs to forestall the North's development of nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems, calling for the withdrawal of the U.S. nuclear umbrella in conjunction with agreements to denuclearize Korea embracing China, Russia, and Japan. The long-term goal of U.S. policy, he argues, should be the full disengagement of U.S. combat forces from Korea as part of regional agreements insulating the peninsula from all foreign conventional and nuclear forces. A veteran journalist with decades of extensive firsthand knowledge of North Korea and long-standing contacts with leaders in Washington, Seoul, and Pyongyang, Harrison is perfectly placed to make these arguments. Throughout, he supports his analysis with revealing accounts of conversations with North Korean, South Korean, and U.S. leaders over thirty-five years. Combining probing scholarship with a seasoned reporter's on-the-ground experience and insights, he has given us the definitive book on U.S. policy in Korea--past, present, and future.
Intensifying geopolitical rivalries, rising defence spending and the proliferation of the latest military technology across Asia suggest that the region is set for a prolonged period of strategic contestation. None of the three competing visions for the future of Asian order – a US-led ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’, a Chinese-centred order, or the ASEAN-inspired ‘Indo-Pacific Outlook’ – is likely to prevail in the short to medium term. In the absence of a new framework, the risk of open conflict is heightened, and along with it the need for effective mechanisms to maintain peace and stability. As Asia’s leaders seek to rebuild their economies and societies in the wake of COVID-19, they would do well to reflect upon the lessons offered by the pandemic and their applicability in the strategic realm. The societies that have navigated the crisis most effectively have been able to do so by putting in place stringent protective measures. Crisis-management and -avoidance mechanisms – and even, in the longer term, wider arms control – can be seen as the strategic equivalent of such measures, and as such they should be pursued with urgency in Asia to reduce the risks of an even greater calamity.