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This study assesses the redistributive impact of fiscal policy -- including expenditures and taxation -- in the Arab Republic of Egypt. Using a broadly applied methodology, a fiscal incidence analysis is conducted using survey and government data for fiscal year 2015. Evidence shows that Egyptian fiscal policy reduces income inequality, and that among individual fiscal programs, the largest reduction is due to public expenditures on the primary education system. Compared with similar countries, Egypt's overall fiscal policy placed it in the median of the distribution of inequality reduction. Fiscal policies in Egypt also led to a decrease in poverty, mostly from the flagship Tamween program. Poverty and inequality could be reduced more effectively if the country would shift away from spending on untargeted energy subsidies to more targeted transfers. The large gap between the government's expenditures and revenues helps explain the positive outcomes on poverty and inequality but poses challenges in the long term.
This Selected Issues paper examines whether Egypt's current account and exchange rate are in broad equilibrium. The paper analyzes areas of fiscal spending that have the biggest saving potential in a cross-country perspective. An assessment of Egypt's real exchange rate is presented. The paper uses data envelopment analysis to analyze the efficiency in public spending on health, education, and social protection relative to comparable countries. The results suggest significant scope to improve efficiency in all three social areas, and that room for fiscal savings is particularly apparent in social protection and education.
This paper discusses Egypt’s Request for Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The EFF-supported program will help Egypt restore macroeconomic stability and promote inclusive growth. The risks to the program mainly emerge from the difficulties inherent in implementing a strong and wide-ranging reform program. Fiscal slippages could undermine the program’s debt sustainability objective. There is a risk that regional conflicts could intensify and domestic security conditions deteriorate, which could affect confidence, investment, and tourism. These risks are mitigated by the authorities’ commitment to the program. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the EFF arrangement.
Economic conditions in Egypt are favorable, and the economic reform is moving forward. The discussions focused on the elements of a macroeconomic policy. IMF staff discussed the following with authorities: a multiyear fiscal consolidation plan, the monetary policy stance and strategy appropriate for maintaining inflation in low single digits, the exchange rate policy, and progress in financial sector reform. Executive Directors recommended the reforms that are needed to support central bank operational autonomy and strengthen policy formulation, and they also stressed the need to enhance the flexibility of labor and improve education.
This report summarizes key findings and recommendations of two off-site visits made by Mr. Benoit Wiest, Public Financial Management Advisor at METAC, and Ms. Katja Funke, Expert, between December 2020 and April 2021. The mission worked with the Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) unit to develop capacities and transparency of fiscal risk management, and support the update of the regulatory framework, as well as the analysis of fiscal risks from PPPs.