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This paper uses an intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy to analyze how terms of trade changes affect real exchange rates and the trade balance. We consider temporary current, anticipated future, and permanent changes in the terms of trade. The results suggest that the relationship between the terms of trade and the current account (the so-called Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect) may be quite sensitive to whether or not the model incorporates nontraded goods. Thus, the real exchange rate may be an important variable through which terms of trade shocks are transmitted to the current account.
This paper uses an intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy to analyzehow terms of trade changes affect real exchange rates and the trade balance. We consider temporary current, anticipated future, and permanent changes in the terms of trade. The results suggest that the relationship between the terms of trade and the current account (the so-called Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect) may be quitesensitive to whether or not the model incorporates nontraded goods. Thus, the realexchange rate may be an important variable through which terms of trade shocks are transmitted to the current account.
The book provides a hands-on introduction to computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, written at an accessible, undergraduate level.
In this paper we investigate the relation between tariff changes, terms of trade changes and the equilibrium real exchange rate. For this purpose we use two models of a small open economy: (1) a three goods version of the Ricardo-Viner model; and (2) a three goods model with full intersectoral factor mobility. We show that, in general, it is not possible to know how the equilibrium real exchange rate will respond to these two disturbances. Moreover, we show that the traditional wisdom that establishes that a tariff hike will always result in a real appreciation, while a terms of trade worsening will generate an equilibrium real depreciation, is incorrect.
A reduction in the U.S. current account deficit vis-à-vis emerging Asia involves a shift in demand from U.S. to emerging Asia tradable goods and a change in international relative prices. This paper quantifies the required adjustment in the terms of trade and real exchange rates in a three-country open economy model of the U.S., China, and other emerging Asia. We compare scenarios where both Chinese and other emerging Asian export prices change by the same proportion to the case where export prices remain constant in one country and increase in the other. Our results are robust to different assumptions about elasticities of substitution and to introducing a high degree of vertical fragmentation in production in the model.
In this paper a minimal general equilibrium intertemporal model, with optimizing consumers and producers, is developed to analyze the process of real exchange rate determination. The model is completely real, and considers a small open economy that produces and consumes three goods each period. The model is also used to analyze the way in which the current account responds to several shocks. The working of the model is illustrated for the case of two disturbances: the imposition of import tariffs, and external terms of trade shocks. In the case of import tariffs, a distinction is made between temporary, anticipated, and permanent changes. It is shown that, without imposing rigidities or adjustment costs, interesting paths for the equilibrium real exchange rate can be generated. In particular "overshooting" and movements in opposite directions in periods one and two can be observed. Precise conditions under which temporary import tariffs will improve the current account are derived. Finally, several ways in which the model can be extended to take into account other issues such as changes in the fiscal deficit, and financial deregulation are discussed in detail.
This book is a synthesis of the author's ideas and research concerning the monetary consequences of trade flows, and the relevance of conventional balance of payments adjustment theory. These ideas are considered mainly in the context of developing countries, many of which suffer from deep structural difficulties and severe foreign exchange shortages. Mainstream economic theory regards the balance of payments to be self-adjusting, meaning that the impact of the balance of payments on the growth and development process is neither considered nor analysed. In contrast, the author emphasises the importance of integrating monetary considerations into trade theory and argues that the balance of payments consequences of trade policy need to be carefully addressed. This approach has a number of implications for important issues such as the sequencing of trade liberalisation; the role of the exchange rate in equilibrating the balance of payments; the case for protection; and the way in which the importance of export growth is articulated. Some of the ideas expressed have a long and distinguished ancestry, but they are not part of the mainstream orthodoxy and need airing in a world increasingly divided into rich and poor countries. The author also considers the case for a new international economic order which would better serve the needs of developing countries, particularly by stabilising primary product prices and controlling speculative capital flows. Trade and development economists, and policymakers concerned with economic growth and development, will appreciate the original and illuminating research in this book.
A cutting-edge graduate-level textbook on the macroeconomics of international trade Combining theoretical models and data in ways unimaginable just a few years ago, open economy macroeconomics has experienced enormous growth over the past several decades. This rigorous and self-contained textbook brings graduate students, scholars, and policymakers to the research frontier and provides the tools and context necessary for new research and policy proposals. Martín Uribe and Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé factor in the discipline's latest developments, including major theoretical advances in incorporating financial and nominal frictions into microfounded dynamic models of the open economy, the availability of macro- and microdata for emerging and developed countries, and a revolution in the tools available to simulate and estimate dynamic stochastic models. The authors begin with a canonical general equilibrium model of an open economy and then build levels of complexity through the coverage of important topics such as international business-cycle analysis, financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises, sovereign default, pecuniary externalities, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and the role of nominal rigidities in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy. Based on courses taught at several universities, Open Economy Macroeconomics is an essential resource for students, researchers, and practitioners. Detailed exploration of international business-cycle analysis Coverage of financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises Extensive investigation of nominal rigidities and their role in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy Other topics include fixed exchange-rate regimes, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and sovereign default and debt sustainability Chapters include exercises and replication codes
This account of exchange rates in the international monetary system considers the issues in international macroeconomics. Using theoretical models of international economics it explains the effects of various policies and issues in macroeconomics.