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This is a unique insider account of the new world of unfettered finance. The author, an Asian regulator, examines how old mindsets, market fundamentalism, loose monetary policy, carry trade, lax supervision, greed, cronyism, and financial engineering caused both the Asian crisis of the late 1990s and the global crisis of 2008–9. This book shows how the Japanese zero interest rate policy to fight deflation helped create the carry trade that generated bubbles in Asia whose effects brought Asian economies down. The study's main purpose is to demonstrate that global finance is so interlinked and interactive that our current tools and institutional structure to deal with critical episodes are completely outdated. The book explains how current financial policies and regulation failed to deal with a global bubble and makes recommendations on what must change.
In the late 1990s, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia experienced a series of major financial crises evinced by widespread bank insolvencies and currency depreciations, as well as sharp declines in gross domestic production. This sudden disruption of the Asian economic `miracle' astounded many observers around the world, raised questions about the stability of the international financial system and caused widespread fear that this financial crisis would spread to other countries. What has been called the Asian crisis followed a prolonged slump in Japan dating from the early 1980s and came after the Mexican currency crisis in the mid-1990s. Thus, the Asian crisis became a major policy concern at the International Monetary Fund as well as among developed countries whose cooperation in dealing with such financial crises is necessary to maintain the stability and efficiency of global financial markets. This book collects the papers and discussions delivered at an October 1998 Conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the International Monetary Fund to examine the causes, implications and possible solutions to the crises. The conference participants included a broad range of academic, industry, and regulatory experts representing more than thirty countries. Topics discussed included the origin of the individual crises; early warning indicators; the role played by the global financial sector in this crisis; how, given an international safety net, potential risks of moral hazard might contribute to further crises; the lessons for the international financial system to be drawn from the Asian crisis; and what the role of the International Monetary Fund might be in future rescue operations. Because the discussions of these topics include a wide diversity of critical views and opinions, the book offers a particularly rich presentation of current and evolving thinking on the causes and preventions of international banking and monetary crises. The book promises to be one of the timeliest as well as one of the most complete treatments of the Asian financial crisis and its implications for future policymaking.
Two Crises, Different Outcomes examines East Asian policy reactions to the two major crises of the last fifteen years: the global financial crisis of 2008–9 and the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98. The calamity of the late 1990s saw a massive meltdown concentrated in East Asia. In stark contrast, East Asia avoided the worst effects of the Lehman Brothers collapse, incurring relatively little damage when compared to the financial devastation unleashed on North America and Europe. Much had changed across the intervening decade, not least that China rather than Japan had become the locomotive of regional growth, and that the East Asian economies had taken numerous steps to buffer their financial structures and regulatory regimes. This time Asia avoided disaster; it bounced back quickly after the initial hit and has been growing in a resilient fashion ever since. The authors of this book explain how the earlier financial crisis affected Asian economies, why government reactions differed so widely during that crisis, and how Asian economies weathered the Great Recession. Drawing on a mixture of single-country expertise and comparative analysis, they conclude by assessing the long-term prospects that Asian countries will continue their recent success.
This book analyzes the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1999. In addition to the issues of financial system restructuring, export-led recovery, crony capitalism, and competitiveness in Asian manufacturing, it examines six key Asian economies--China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. The book makes clear that there is little particularly Asian about the Asian financial crisis. The generic character of the crisis became clear during 1998, when it reached Russia, South Africa, and Brazil. The spread of the crisis reflects the rapid arrival of global capitalism in a world economy not used to the integration of the advanced and developing countries. The book makes recommendations for reform, including the formation of regional monetary bodies, the establishment of an international bankruptcy system, the democratization of international organizations, the infusion of public money to revive the financial and corporate sectors in Pacific Asia, and stronger supervision over financial institutions. The book emphasizes a mismatch in Pacific Asia between investment in physical hardware (e.g., factories and machinery) and in social software (e.g., scientific research centers and administrative and judiciary systems). In a world of growing international competitiveness, concerns over governance will weigh increasingly heavily on unreformed Asian countries. The long-term competitiveness of Asia rests on its getting its institutions right.
This study examines the social impact of the Asian financial crisis which began in July 1997. Several countries experienced an economic shock of unprecedented severity after decades of uninterrupted growth. The severe rise in unemployment and its repercussions in the worst-affected countries (Thailand, Republic of Korea and Indonesia) overwhelmed the underdeveloped systems of social protection. Higher unemployment and inflation combined to push many people into poverty. A central policy message is that current programmes of policy and institutional reform following the crisis, should include a basic rethinking of the social dimension of the future model of development. The author also argues for the introduction of unemployment insurance, the expansion of social assistance and the strengthening of active labour market policies.
Khan presents a theory of financial crises in the age of globalization from an evolutionary perspective and suggests policies that may be necessary for averting or managing new financial crises. Starting with the Asian financial crises, he identifies new types of financial crises that result from a combination of liberalization, weak domestic institutions for economic governance and a chaotic global market system without global governance institutions. Suggested solutions involve building new institutions for global and domestic governance and domestic and international policy reforms.
'Filled with fresh observations from the global financial crisis, this book provides a blueprint for making Asia's financial systems safe. With contributions from experts in several countries, it is both comprehensive and rigorous. It will be invaluable to policy makers and students of finance everywhere, but its unique Asian perspective provides special insight into the systems that managed to ride out the global crisis but absent further reform might set the stage for another one. The book's analysis and recommendations deserve urgent policy attention.' Peter Petri, Brandeis University, US 'What are the lessons of the global financial crisis of 20072009 for Asia? This is a key issue for Asia today. On one hand, some observers argue that following the Asian financial crisis in 199798, most Asian developing countries built up strong mechanisms to guarantee financial stability. But the recent financial shocks across America and Europe show that even the best financial systems have key weaknesses. This book is a valuable guide for Asian financial policy-makers of the road ahead.' Peter McCawley, Australian National University In light of the experience of the global financial crisis, this book develops concrete recommendations for financial sector reform and regulation in Asian economies aimed at preventing the recurrence of systemic financial crises, improving the ability to manage and resolve crises, managing capital flows, and promoting the development of Asian bond markets. The focus of the book is on longer-term structural measures. It explores areas such as the scope for regional monitoring and cooperation; deepening and integration of Asian bond and money markets; liberalization/regulation of capital flows; issues related to macroprudential oversight, regulatory structure and cooperation; as well as role of state intervention in crisis resolution in the financial sector. The need for and impacts of regulations on innovative financial products and specific investor groups such as hedge funds; ways to reduce systemic risk of pro-cyclicality of regulation; and ways to improve the infrastructure and regulatory environment for local currency bond markets, are also examined in depth. The book will appeal to public and private finance experts, policy and decisions makers in governments and banks, think-tanks, and students in graduate courses related to financial and economic development.
The turmoil that has rocked Asian markets since the middle of 1997, and that is now having such deep effects on the economies in the region, is the third major currency crisis of the 1990s. This study explains how the Asian crisis arose and spread. It then outlines the corrective policy measures that could help end the crisis, and the shortcomings that have been revealed in the international financial system that require reform to reduce the chances of a recurrence.
An examination of the political and economic causes and consequences of the Asian financial crises.
As witness to one of the world's great crises in recent times, academics and students, business people, national and international government analysts, policy makers and political leaders worldwide have been pre-occupied by an effort to adequately unravel or sufficiently understand the factors that have brought about the so-called Asian financial, currency or economic crisis and hopefully to find plausible cures or solutions to it. This book examines the impact of economic globalization in developing economies and it applies empirical studies of all of the major countries to theoretical perspectives on the crisis.