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A gripping history of the pioneers who sought to use science to predict financial markets The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune tellers, men such as Roger Babson, Irving Fisher, John Moody, C. J. Bullock, and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses, and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929. Walter Friedman paints vivid portraits of entrepreneurs who shared a belief that the rational world of numbers and reason could tame--or at least foresee--the irrational gyrations of the market. Despite their failures, this first generation of economic forecasters helped to make the prediction of economic trends a central economic activity, and shed light on the mechanics of financial markets by providing a range of statistics and information about individual firms. They also raised questions that are still relevant today. What is science and what is merely guesswork in forecasting? What motivates people to buy forecasts? Does the act of forecasting set in motion unforeseen events that can counteract the forecast made? Masterful and compelling, Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent to capitalism itself.
"As is often noted, 'everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it.' Not Bill Hooke! His thoughtful analysis of actions that we need to take to reduce the impacts of extreme weather is a must-read for everyone with an interest in the weather and climate." --Franklin W. Nutter, president, Reinsurance Association of America.
This memoir follows the sixty-year meteorology career of Robert M. Atlas. As a young child, Robert M. Atlas would often look up at the sky, observe the clouds, and ask his parents questions about the weather. That early interest sparked a career in meteorology that took place during a period of rapid development in the field. Weather Forecaster to Research Scientist follows his decades-long career and his innovative research, which led to improvements in the understanding and prediction of extreme weather. Atlas's journey begins with his start as an apprentice forecaster for the US Weather Bureau during a time when satellite meteorology and operational numerical weather prediction were just in their infancy. Weather Forecaster to Research Scientist also traces his experiences as an operational forecaster in the US Air Force, discusses his pioneering work on ocean surface winds using satellites, and describes his leadership of scientific organizations within NASA and NOAA as well as his experiences teaching at several universities. An engaging account of a distinguished career, this book will appeal to students, educators, weather forecasters, scientists, and weather enthusiasts alike.