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Using transcripts of Greenspan's FOMC meetings as well as testimony before Congress, this book delivers a timeline of his most devastating mistakes and weaves together the connection between every economic calamity of the past 19 years.
Why do stock and housing markets sometimes experience amazing booms followed by massive busts and why is this happening more and more frequently? In order to answer these questions, William Quinn and John D. Turner take us on a riveting ride through the history of financial bubbles, visiting, among other places, Paris and London in 1720, Latin America in the 1820s, Melbourne in the 1880s, New York in the 1920s, Tokyo in the 1980s, Silicon Valley in the 1990s and Shanghai in the 2000s. As they do so, they help us understand why bubbles happen, and why some have catastrophic economic, social and political consequences whilst others have actually benefited society. They reveal that bubbles start when investors and speculators react to new technology or political initiatives, showing that our ability to predict future bubbles will ultimately come down to being able to predict these sparks.
A multi-disciplinary framework through which to spot financial bubbles before they burst. Based on a popular undergraduate seminar, entitled Financial Booms & Busts, taught by the author at Yale University, Boombustology presents a multi-disciplinary framework for identifying unsustainable booms and forthcoming busts. The magnitude of our recent financial crisis mandates a firm understanding of this phenomenon before the next crisis occurs. Boombustology provides an in-depth look at several major booms and busts and offers a solid framework for thinking about future occurrences. Examines why booms and busts are not random and can therefore be identified Focuses upon various theoretical and disciplinary lenses useful in the study of booms and busts Contains a framework for thinking about and identifying forthcoming financial bubbles including several tell-tale indicators of a forthcoming bust. Illustrates the framework in action by evaluating China as a potential bubble in the making. If you want to make better decisions in today’s turbulent investment environment, understanding the dynamics of booms and busts is the best place the start. Boombustology can help you achieve this elusive goal. Vikram Mansharamani is a Lecturer at Yale University and a global equity investor.
Updated version of the bestselling book on how to grow and protect wealth in difficult economic times Having an effective financial plan has always been important; today, it's crucial. In The Ultimate Money Guide for Bubbles, Busts, Recession, and Depression—the updated and revised edition of the bestseller, The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide—author Martin D. Weiss shows readers how to create a safe and effective financial plan for today's unpredictable economic environment. Explains why the U.S. economy continues to slump, and how persistently high unemployment and increasing government spending could lead to a far worse, double-dip recession Details how investors are missing opportunities by failing to look at overseas investments, specifically in Asia and Latin America Reveals what everyone should be doing now to protect their savings, investments, and jobs The Ultimate Ultimate Money Guide for Bubbles, Busts, Recession, and Depression answers the questions readers have about the new challenges of the "new normal," while also offering strategies to cope with the credit crunch, housing bust, and decline of the U.S. dollar.
Governments and central banks across the developed world have tried every policy tool imaginable, yet our economies remain sluggish or worse. How did we get here, and how can we compete and prosper once more? Daniel Alpert argues that a global labor glut, excess productive capacity, and a rising ocean of cheap capital have kept the Western economies mired in underemployment and anemic growth. We failed to anticipate the impact of the torrent of labor and capital unleashed by formerly socialist economies. Many policymakers miss the connection between global oversupply and the lack of domestic investment and growth. But Alpert shows how they are intertwined and offers a bold, fresh approach to fixing our economic woes. Twitter: @DanielAlpert
The jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful terms for market-asset prices at odds with any reasonable economic explanation. Examples include "bubble," "tulipmania," "chain letter," "Ponzi scheme," "panic," "crash," "herding," and "irrational exuberance." Although such a term suggests that an event is inexplicably crowd-driven, what it really means, claims Peter Garber, is that we have grasped a near-empty explanation rather than expend the effort to understand the event. In this book Garber offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720). He focuses most closely on the Tulipmania because it is the event that most modern observers view as clearly crazy. Comparing the pattern of price declines for initially rare eighteenth-century bulbs to that of seventeenth-century bulbs, he concludes that the extremely high prices for rare bulbs and their rapid decline reflects normal pricing behavior. In the cases of the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, he describes the asset markets and financial manipulations involved in these episodes and casts them as market fundamentals.
The authors challenge this view here and develop two alternative interpretations. Both are based on the notion that a bubble (the "dot-com" bubble) has been driving the stock market, but differ in their assumptions about the interactions between this bubble and fiscal policy (the "Bush" deficits). The "benevolent" view holds that a change in investor sentiment led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the Bush deficits were a welfare-improving policy response to this event. The "cynical" view holds instead that the Bush deficits led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble as the new administration tried to appropriate rents from foreign investors. The authors discuss the implications of each of these views for the future evolution of the U.S. economy and, in particular, its net foreign asset position."
A lively, original, and challenging history of stock market speculation from the 17th century to present day. Is your investment in that new Internet stock a sign of stock market savvy or an act of peculiarly American speculative folly? How has the psychology of investing changed—and not changed—over the last five hundred years? In Devil Take the Hindmost, Edward Chancellor traces the origins of the speculative spirit back to ancient Rome and chronicles its revival in the modern world: from the tulip scandal of 1630s Holland, to “stockjobbing” in London's Exchange Alley, to the infamous South Sea Bubble of 1720, which prompted Sir Isaac Newton to comment, “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” Here are brokers underwriting risks that included highway robbery and the “assurance of female chastity”; credit notes and lottery tickets circulating as money; wise and unwise investors from Alexander Pope and Benjamin Disraeli to Ivan Boesky and Hillary Rodham Clinton. From the Gilded Age to the Roaring Twenties, from the nineteenth century railway mania to the crash of 1929, from junk bonds and the Japanese bubble economy to the day-traders of the Information Era, Devil Take the Hindmost tells a fascinating story of human dreams and folly through the ages.
Based on computer analysis of price quotes from the eighteenth-century financial press, this work reevaluates the evolution of financial markets.