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In 2014's The Accidental Superpower, geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan made the case that geographic, demographic and energy trends were unravelling the global system. Zeihan takes the story a step further in The Absent Superpower, mapping out the threats and opportunities as the world descends into Disorder.
With a new "10 years later" epilogue for every chapter, comes an eye-opening assessment of American power and deglobalization in the bestselling tradition of The World is Flat and The Next 100 Years. Near the end of the Second World War, the United States made a bold strategic gambit that rewired the international system. Empires were abolished and replaced by a global arrangement enforced by the U.S. Navy. With all the world's oceans safe for the first time in history, markets and resources were made available for everyone. Enemies became partners. We think of this system as normal - it is not. We live in an artificial world on borrowed time. In The Accidental Superpower, international strategist Peter Zeihan examines how the hard rules of geography are eroding the American commitment to free trade; how much of the planet is aging into a mass retirement that will enervate markets and capital supplies; and how, against all odds, it is the ever-ravenous American economy that - alone among the developed nations - is rapidly approaching energy independence. Combined, these factors are doing nothing less than overturning the global system and ushering in a new (dis)order. For most, that is a disaster-in-waiting, but not for the Americans. The shale revolution allows Americans to sidestep an increasingly dangerous energy market. Only the United States boasts a youth population large enough to escape the sucking maw of global aging. Most important, geography will matter more than ever in a de-globalizing world, and America's geography is simply sublime.
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Larry Schweikart has won wide acclaim for his number one New York Times bestseller, A Patriot’s History of the United States. Now, with A Patriot's History of Globalism, Schweikart shows that globalism, or the attempt to form a one-world government is nothing new. In the wake of Napoleon's defeat in 1814, the globalists of the day (mostly monarchs) sought to create a governing arrangement for Europe. Within forty years, three of the major participants were at war with each other. After World War I, they tried again at Versailles, this time even more aggressively changing boundaries of nations and moving populations. That attempt only lasted twenty years before another major war between the participants. Yet again, after World War II, globalists used the threat of the atomic bomb to try to form an international government with the United Nations. Most recently, the World Economic Forum and World Health Organization are attempting to minimize nationalities with global control of money and medicine. But there are signs this tide has been reversed and is finally in decline. A Patriot's History of Globalism is the gold standard text for the history of globalism.
The conduct of warfare is constantly shaped by new forces that create complexities in the battlespace for military operations. This inaugural volume of the Lieber Studies Series seeks to address several issues in the confluence of law and armed conflict, featuring chapters from world class scholars, policymakers and other government officials; military and civilian legal practitioners; and other thought leaders who examine the role of the law of armed conflict in current and future armed conflicts around the world.
The value of a theory of deterrence lies in its ability to reconstruct and predict strategic behavior accurately and consistently. Contemporary scholarship on deterrence has drawn upon decision models and classical game theory, with some success, to explain how deterrence works. But the field is marked by unconnected and sometimes contradictory hypotheses that may explain one type of situation while being inapplicable to another. The Dynamics of Deterrence is the first comprehensive treatment of deterrence theory since the mid-1960s. Frank C. Zagare introduces a new theoretical framework for deterrence that is rigorous, consistent, and illuminating. By placing the deterrence relationship in a "theory of moves" framework, Zagare is able to remedy the defects of other models. His approach is illustrated by and applied to a number of complex deterrence situations: the Berlin crisis of 1948, the Middle East crises of 1967 and 1973, and The Falkland/Malvinas crisis of 1980. He also examines the strategic relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union from 1945 to the present. Zagare studies the dynamics of both mutual and unilateral deterrence games in nuclear and non-nuclear situations, and the impact of credibility, capability, and power asymmetries on deterrence stability. He shows that his theory is applicable for analyzing deterrence situations between allies as well as between hostile states. One of the additional strengths of his model, however, is its general usefulness for other levels and settings, such as deterrence games played by husband and wife, parent and child, employer and employee, and the state and its citizens. With its lucid prose and illustrative examples, The Dynamics of Deterrence will be of interest to a wide audience in international relations, peace studies, and political science.
Since the birth of the Yinyang Continent, the two races of Yin and Yang had been born and bred. The Yang Race possessed the attribute of 'goodness', and possessed all sorts of superpowers to defend their 'goodness'. The attribute of the Yin Clan was' evil '. Demons, demons, ghosts, and other creatures belonged to it. They wanted to enslave the Yang Clan and control the entire continent. A youth who had comprehended 'creating from nothing' from the 'Classic of Virtue' was not tolerated by the current Heavenly Dao and had his body destroyed. His soul, by chance and coincidence, was taken in by the Yinyang Continent and reborn into the body of an ordinary Yang Clan youth. None: "The Yang race is good, forsaken by the Evil God; the Yin race is evil, born of the Good God. Tell me what is evil and what is good? " Close]
This new book offers a coherent model of a unipolar world order. Unipolarity is usually described either as a ‘brief moment’ or as something historically insignificant. However, we have already seen nearly twenty years of virtual unipolarity and this period has been of great significance for world politics. Two issues have been crucial since the end of the Cold War: How to theorize the distinctiveness and exceptional character of a unipolar international system? And what is it like to conduct state business in a unipolar world? Until now, a comprehensive model for unipolarity has been lacking. This volume provides a theoretical framework for analysis of the current world order and identifies the patterns of outcomes and systematic variations to be expected. Terrorism and attempts by small states to achieve a nuclear capability are not new phenomena or exclusive to the current world order, but in the case of unipolarity these have become attached to the fear of marginalization and the struggle against a powerful centre without the possibility of allying with an alternative superpower. Supplying a coherent theoretical model for unipolarity, which can provide explanations of trends and patterns in the turbulent post-Cold War era, this book will be of interest to students of IR theory, international security and foreign policy.
While other studies of international leadership have looked at a variety of measures to predict behavior, this book demonstrates that the key factor is international finance. J. Samuel Barkin uses an innovative blend of rationalist and constructivist methodologies, approaches to international political economy that normally exist in isolation from one another. Barkin argues that the level of a country's involvement in international finance specifically motivates it to lead. This is particularly relevant today, given the on-going discussions on how to respond to local and global financial crises. Barkin illustrates his theory with an episodic history of international monetary leadership over the last four centuries: Dutch leadership in the seventeenth century; British leadership in the nineteenth; the failure of leadership in the interwar era and Great Depression; and the role of the U.S. in the construction of an international economic infrastructure since World War II.
Today’s investors need to understand geopolitical trends as a main driving force of markets. This book provides just that: an understanding of the interplay between geopolitics and economics, and of the impact of that dynamic on financial markets. To me, geo-economics is the study of how geopolitics and economics interact in international relations. Plenty of books on geopolitics have been written by eminent experts in politics and international affairs. This book is not one of them. First, I am neither a political scientist nor an expert in international affairs. I am an economist and an investment strategist who has been fascinated by geopolitics for many years. And this fascination has led me to the realization that almost all books and articles written on geopolitics are useless for investors. Political scientists are not trained to think like investors, and they are not typically trained in quantitative methods. Instead, they engage in developing narratives for geopolitical events and processes that pose risks and opportunities for investors. My main problem with these narratives is that they usually do not pass the “so what?” test. Geopolitical risks are important, but how am I to assess which risks are important for my portfolio and which ones are simply noise? Because geopolitics experts focus on politics, they do not provide an answer to this crucial question for investors. What could be important for a geopolitics expert and for global politics could be totally irrelevant for investors. For example, the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been going on for almost two decades now and have been an important influence on the political discussion in the United States. But for investors, the war in Afghanistan was a total nonevent, and the war in Iraq had only a fleeting influence, when it started in 2003. Geopolitics experts cannot answer the question of which geopolitical events matter for investors and which do not. Unfortunately, some experts thus claim that all geopolitical risks matter and that these risks cannot be quantified but only assessed qualitatively. Nothing could be further from the truth. In the chapters that follow, I discuss geopolitical and geo-economic events from the viewpoint of an investor and show that they can be quantified and introduced as part of a traditional risk management process. I do this in two parts. The first part of this book focuses on geopolitics that matters to investors. It reviews the literature on a range of geopolitical events and shows which events have a material economic effect and which do not. The second part of this book puts the insights from those first chapters into practice by applying them to current geopolitical trends. In this second part, I stick my head out and examine the impact the geopolitical trends have on the economy and financial markets today and their likely development in the coming years. —Joachim Klement, CFA