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The Thai economy was in a state of confusion following the currency crisis of 1997, but has been showing signs of recovery from the second half of 1998. If this trend towards recovery continues, then how fast can we expect the economy to grow over the long-term? In this study, we use an econometric model to estimate the long-term growth path of the Thai economy.
This volume looks at the origins and consequences of the accelerated growth of the Thai economy since the mid-1980s, and explores the factors that set Thailand apart from other Asian, African and Latin American countries.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes factors that could bring inflation back to target in Thailand. The paper estimates a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve with time varying parameters to gauge the quantitative role of (long-term) inflation trends, economic slack, and import price inflation in shaping inflation dynamics. The analysis reveals some important changes in Thailand’s inflation dynamics. It suggests that the impact of lower import prices was a major factor behind the decline in headline inflation in 2015, with low oil prices the largest contributor to inflation dynamics. Monetary policy easing, within a broader expansionary policy mix, should help bring inflation back to target.
Thailand is a society in political, economic and social transition. Change is happening to varying degrees-at the national level and at the regional level where there are contrasting issues. Changes are positive, some are negative. This book looks at the various aspects of change as it impacts on business and the lives of the people.
"Thailand is one of the most successful developing countries. After decades of rapid growth, the economy rebounded quickly from the 1997-98 Asian crisis and is set to continue its expansion into the future. Nevertheless, there are doubts about the resilience of the Thai economy. The country appears to be on a lower growth projectory now than before the crisis. What growth can Thailand realistically expect? And what can the government do to sustain such growth into the future? Using a new methodology for identifying binding constraints to growth (Rodrik 2004 and Hausmann and others 2005), the author argues that Thailand's challenge is to maintain growth levels of 4 to 5 percent over the medium term. To achieve this goal, Thailand needs to continue its efforts of improving business infrastructure, trade integration, and skills, as well as intensifying its governance reforms."--World Bank web site.