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The search for a distinct "terrorist profile" has been going on for many years, and while it is generally agreed that nobody is born a terrorist, there is plenty of disagreement about why a person might become one. Whereas personal and situational push and pull factors can be combined to determine how and why young people become involved in terrorism, preventing an individual from following a path that ends in violence without moral restraint poses an enormous challenge, especially in an open society. This book presents papers from the NATO Advanced Research Workshop titled "A Review of the Utility of Existing Terrorism Risk Assessment Instruments and Policies: Is there the Need for Possible New Approaches?", held in Berlin, Germany, on 29-30 November 2019. Researchers were asked to present papers for discussion sessions with invited participants and practitioners from a number of NATO member and partner countries. Various assessment instruments for identifying problematic individuals at an early stage were presented by experts. It was generally agreed that, due to cultural, religious and other differences, there is no simple way to identify the relatively few high-risk individuals among the larger population of politically radicalized but not necessarily violent individuals who pose no threat. Framed by an Introduction and Conclusion, the 16 chapters in the book are divided into three parts: Theory and Risk/Threat Assessment Instrument Policy Themes; Implementation of Politically Motivated Terrorism Protocols; and Personality Traits/Disorders, Anti-State Terrorism Profiles and the DSM-5 Personality Trait Instrument. This practice-oriented book will be of interest to all those tasked with protecting society from some of its most dangerous members.
Research into terrorism risk profiles has long been an integral part of the political science, psychology, and criminology fields. Before 9/11, debates on the importance of rational choice and/or personality were theoretical in nature. Al Qaeda's attacks moved this debate to the forefront of the domestic and international politics. An investigation into the September 11 attacks conducted by the United States (US) revealed that many of those involved in the attacks were considered foreign cell members operating in other liberal democracies (e.g., Germany), constituting a previously unknown threat profile (National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, 2004). As a result, the need to identify radicalized individuals became one of the priorities for liberal democratic governments. Although often successful at identifying radicalized individuals, national security agencies have struggled to determine who is at most risk of committing a terrorist attack. Unable to monitor every radicalized individual 24 hours a day, governments have placed trust into a variety of terrorism risk assessment instruments (TRAs). Most instruments currently in use focus heavily on the process of radicalization and extremist involvement while minimizing the importance of personality traits and disorders (Lloyd, 2019). As a result of a number of publicized false-negatives and the increased threat emerging from the lone actor spectrum, Corrado has developed a terrorism risk assessment instrument based on themes emerging from academic research, case studies, the Personality Disorder Inventory (PID) of the DSM-5, and the Comprehensive Assessment of Psychopathic Personality (CAPP) (Corrado et al., 2012). This dissertation assessed the strength of Corrado's TRA by conducting an exploratory four-part validation study. First, the study evaluated interrater reliability; second, the instrument's utility in predicting risk across ideologies was assessed; third the instrument was used to compare personality profiles of lone actor terrorists to group-based terrorists, and last, possible overlap in profiles of lone actor terrorists and mass shooters was examined. Findings suggest that there is no need for ideologically categorized terrorism risk assessment and that lone actors constitute a distinct terrorist typology.
Outlines the essential components of risk assessment and management, which entail the following sequential tasks: Critical infrastructure and key asset inventory; Criticality assessment; Threat assessment; Vulnerability assessment; Risk calculation; and Countermeasure identification. Risk assessment and management concepts and methodologies are evolving rapidly. Here, each component is defined and briefly examined. Protocols are supplied to quantify/calculate criticality, threat, vulnerability, and risk. Experience with risk assessment and management are limited in many law enforcement agencies. To assist in reversing this situation, this report supplies capacity building info. that includes promising programs, software, and training references.
This paper critically compares seven widely used risk assessment tools for violent extremism, including the VERA-2R, the ERG 22+, the SQAT, the IR46, the RRAP, the Radar, and the VAF. For each risk assessment method, the authors (1) provide background information about its country of origin, the field of expertise/discipline within which they were created, their underlying methodology (theory or case-based), and the various ways these tools are structured; (2) describe the purpose of the risk assessment tools and their respective target audience(s); and (3) elaborate on the use (practical implications) of the tools. The objective is to enable policymakers and practitioners to better navigate the often muddy, copyrighted, and expensive waters of the world of risk assessment of violent extremism—as well as to facilitate their decision-making process when it comes to determining what approach is best suited to their needs.

Using the Web as a Weapon

United States. Congress. House. Committee on Homeland Security. Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 48


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'This book's excellent discussion of the theories and concepts involved in profiling terrorists, including those who are incarcerated, is a major contribution to the academic discipline on these issues.'Perspectives on TerrorismTerrorist Minds: From Social-Psychological Profiling to Assessing the Risk explores the process of terrorist behavioural analysis, from the social-psychological profiling of terrorists to the development of risk assessment tools. Most of the research for this book was conducted in cooperation with the Intelligence Department of the Israeli Prison Service via qualitative, in-depth interviews with leaders of terrorist organisations in Israeli prisons. Once social-psychological profiles were established, terrorist risk assessment tools were developed to allow for better observation and practical management of associated problems.This book fills the gaps in existing literature on the psychology of imprisoned terrorist group leaders through the analysis of individuals' social, professional and personal lives, as well as their attitudes and perceptions. The book also covers the practical aspects of risk assessment based on social-psychological profiling, and discusses relevant tools that have been developed in recent years. It aims to better inform counter-terrorism initiatives and policymaking, as well as improve methods of communication, counter-terrorism, and conflict resolution.
The Department of Homeland Security is responsible for protecting the United States from terrorism. It does so partly through the Urban Areas Security Initiative, though its distribution has been criticized for not reflecting risk. This monograph offers a practical definition of terrorism risk and a method for estimating it that addresses inherent uncertainties. It also demonstrates a framework for evaluating alternative risk estimates. Finally, it makes five recommendations for improving resource allocation.
RAND evaluated a terrorism risk modeling tool developed by the Transportation Security Administration and Boeing to help guide program planning for aviation security. This tool, the Risk Management Analysis Tool, or RMAT, is used by TSA to estimate the terrorism risk-reduction benefits attributable to new and existing security programs, technologies, and procedures. RMAT simulates terrorist behavior and success in attacking vulnerabilities in the domestic commercial air transportation system, drawing on estimates of terrorist resources, capabilities, preferences, decision processes, intelligence collection, and operational planning. It describes how the layers of security protecting the air transportation system are likely to perform when confronted by more than 60 types of attacks, drawing on detailed blast and other physical modeling to understand the damage produced by different weapons and attacks, and calculating expected loss of life and the direct and indirect economic consequences of that damage. This report describes RAND's conclusions about the validity of RMAT for TSA's intended uses and its recommendations for how TSA should perform cost-benefit analyses of its security programs.