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This dissertation, "Temporal Modeling of Information Diffusion in Online Social Networks" by Guolin, Niu, 牛国林, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: The rapid development of online social networks (OSNs) renders them a powerful platform for information diffusion on a massive scale. OSNs generate enormous propagation traces. An important question is how to model the real-world information diffusion process. Although considerable studies have been conducted in this field, the temporal characteristics have not been fully addressed yet. This thesis addresses the issue of modeling the temporal dynamics of the information diffusion process. Based on empirical findings drawn from large-scale propagation traces of a popular OSN in China, we demonstrate that the temporal characteristics has a significant impact on the diffusion dynamics. Hence, a series of new temporal information diffusion models have been proposed by incorporating these temporal features. Experimental results demonstrate that these proposed models are more accurate and practical than existing discrete diffusion models. Moreover, one application of information diffusion models, i.e., the revenue maximization problem, is studied. Specifically, the thesis consists of three major parts: 1) preliminaries, i.e., introduction of research platform and collected dataset, 2) modeling social influence diffusion from three different temporal aspects, and 3) monetizing OSNs through designing intelligent pricing strategies in the diffusion process to realize the goal of revenue maximization. Firstly, the research platform is introduced and the statistical properties of the data derived from this platform are investigated. We choose Renren, the dominant social network website in China, as our research platform and study its information propagation mechanisms. Specifically, we concentrate on the propagation of "sharing video" behaviors, and collect data on more than 2.8 million Renren users and over 209 million diffusion traces. The analysis result shows that the video access patterns in OSNs differ significantly from Youtube-like systems, which makes understanding the video propagation behaviors in OSNs an important research task. Secondly, the temporal modeling of information diffusion is explored. By investigating temporal features using real diffusion traces, we find that three factors should be considered in building realistic diffusion models, including, information propagation latency, multiple influential sources and user diversities. We then develop models to explain the information propagation process by incorporating these factors, and demonstrate that the models reflect reality well. Finally, revenue maximization in the information diffusion process is studied. Specifically, the pricing factor is explicitly incorporated into the product diffusion process. To realize the goal of revenue maximization, we develop a Dynamic Programming Based Heuristic (DPBH) to obtain the optimal pricing sequence. Application of the DPBH in the revenue maximization problem shows that it performs well in both the expected revenue achieved and in running time. This leads to fundamental ramifications to many related OSN marketing applications. DOI: 10.5353/th_b5317018 Subjects: Online social networks
The book lies at the interface of mathematics, social media analysis, and data science. Its authors aim to introduce a new dynamic modeling approach to the use of partial differential equations for describing information diffusion over online social networks. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Laplacian matrix for the underlying social network are used to find communities (clusters) of online users. Once these clusters are embedded in a Euclidean space, the mathematical models, which are reaction-diffusion equations, are developed based on intuitive social distances between clusters within the Euclidean space. The models are validated with data from major social media such as Twitter. In addition, mathematical analysis of these models is applied, revealing insights into information flow on social media. Two applications with geocoded Twitter data are included in the book: one describing the social movement in Twitter during the Egyptian revolution in 2011 and another predicting influenza prevalence. The new approach advocates a paradigm shift for modeling information diffusion in online social networks and lays the theoretical groundwork for many spatio-temporal modeling problems in the big-data era.
This book presents the leading models of social network diffusion that are used to demonstrate the spread of disease, ideas, and behavior. It introduces diffusion models from the fields of computer science (independent cascade and linear threshold), sociology (tipping models), physics (voter models), biology (evolutionary models), and epidemiology (SIR/SIS and related models). A variety of properties and problems related to these models are discussed including identifying seeds sets to initiate diffusion, game theoretic problems, predicting diffusion events, and more. The book explores numerous connections between social network diffusion research and artificial intelligence through topics such as agent-based modeling, logic programming, game theory, learning, and data mining. The book also surveys key empirical results in social network diffusion, and reviews the classic and cutting-edge research with a focus on open problems.
Online Social Networks: Human Cognitive Constraints in Facebook and Twitter provides new insights into the structural properties of personal online social networks and the mechanisms underpinning human online social behavior. As the availability of digital communication data generated by social media is revolutionizing the field of social networks analysis, the text discusses the use of large- scale datasets to study the structural properties of online ego networks, to compare them with the properties of general human social networks, and to highlight additional properties. Users will find the data collected and conclusions drawn useful during design or research service initiatives that involve online and mobile social network environments. Provides an analysis of the structural properties of ego networks in online social networks Presents quantitative evidence of the Dunbar’s number in online environments Discusses original structural and dynamic properties of human social network through OSN analysis
The main interest of this research has been in understanding and characterizing large networks of human interactions as continuously changing objects. In fact, although many real social networks are dynamic networks whose elements and properties continuously change over time, traditional approaches to social network analysis are essentially static, thus neglecting all temporal aspects. Specifically, we have investigated the role that temporal patterns of human interaction play in three main fields of social network analysis and data mining: characterization of time (or attention) allocation in social networks, prediction of link decay/persistence, and information spreading. In order to address this we analyzed large anonymized data sets of phone call communication traces over long periods of time. Access to these observations was granted by Telefonica Research, Spain. The findings that emerge from our research indicate that the observed heterogeneities and correlations of human temporal patterns of interaction significantly affect the traditional view of social networks, shifting from a very steady to a highly complex entity. Since structure and dynamics are tightly coupled, they cannot be disentangled in the analysis and modeling of human behavior, though traditional models seek to do so. Our results impact not only the way in which social network are traditionally characterized, but more importantly also the understanding and modeling phenomena such as group formation, spread of epidemics, and the dissemination of ideas, opinions and information.
Research on social networks has exploded over the last decade. To a large extent, this has been fueled by the spectacular growth of social media and online social networking sites, which continue growing at a very fast pace, as well as by the increasing availability of very large social network datasets for purposes of research. A rich body of this research has been devoted to the analysis of the propagation of information, influence, innovations, infections, practices and customs through networks. Can we build models to explain the way these propagations occur? How can we validate our models against any available real datasets consisting of a social network and propagation traces that occurred in the past? These are just some questions studied by researchers in this area. Information propagation models find applications in viral marketing, outbreak detection, finding key blog posts to read in order to catch important stories, finding leaders or trendsetters, information feed ranking, etc. A number of algorithmic problems arising in these applications have been abstracted and studied extensively by researchers under the garb of influence maximization. This book starts with a detailed description of well-established diffusion models, including the independent cascade model and the linear threshold model, that have been successful at explaining propagation phenomena. We describe their properties as well as numerous extensions to them, introducing aspects such as competition, budget, and time-criticality, among many others. We delve deep into the key problem of influence maximization, which selects key individuals to activate in order to influence a large fraction of a network. Influence maximization in classic diffusion models including both the independent cascade and the linear threshold models is computationally intractable, more precisely #P-hard, and we describe several approximation algorithms and scalable heuristics that have been proposed in the literature. Finally, we also deal with key issues that need to be tackled in order to turn this research into practice, such as learning the strength with which individuals in a network influence each other, as well as the practical aspects of this research including the availability of datasets and software tools for facilitating research. We conclude with a discussion of various research problems that remain open, both from a technical perspective and from the viewpoint of transferring the results of research into industry strength applications.
I study the theoretical modelling and the statistical characterization of information diffusion in online social media from a statistical physics perspective. I consider a variety of dynamical models that aim at describing the propagation of information in social systems and investigating their critical behavior, with a focus on the interplay between networks and dynamics. We show that information cascades predicted by these models share the same critical properties, regardless of the network structure. We further consider the critical Hawkes process as a benchmark to develop a principled approach to study cascades in correlated time series. The focus is in particular on the interplay between the temporal resolution used to merge the events in the time series and the resulting cascade distribution. I identify an optimal temporal resolution with the critical point of a one-dimensional percolation model. This approach to the selection of the temporal resolution is used to characterize information cascades in a variety of online social media. Simple and complex contagion, two ways in which information can propagate, are distinguished as the latter is crucially influenced by the existence or absence of multiple sources. Empirical data reveal that both these contagion dynamics take place in online social media. Indeed, results indicate that all system display the same universal behaviour, whose modeling can not leave aside complex contagion dynamics. Overall, we challenge the paradigm that information spreads according to the rules of simple contagion only, first by investigating theoretical models and then comparing their predictions with the outcome of a principled and methodologically sound analysis of data collected from online social media.
This text is about spreading of information and influence in complex networks. Although previously considered similar and modeled in parallel approaches, there is now experimental evidence that epidemic and social spreading work in subtly different ways. While previously explored through modeling, there is currently an explosion of work on revealing the mechanisms underlying complex contagion based on big data and data-driven approaches. This volume consists of four parts. Part 1 is an Introduction, providing an accessible summary of the state of the art. Part 2 provides an overview of the central theoretical developments in the field. Part 3 describes the empirical work on observing spreading processes in real-world networks. Finally, Part 4 goes into detail with recent and exciting new developments: dedicated studies designed to measure specific aspects of the spreading processes, often using randomized control trials to isolate the network effect from confounders, such as homophily. Each contribution is authored by leading experts in the field. This volume, though based on technical selections of the most important results on complex spreading, remains quite accessible to the newly interested. The main benefit to the reader is that the topics are carefully structured to take the novice to the level of expert on the topic of social spreading processes. This book will be of great importance to a wide field: from researchers in physics, computer science, and sociology to professionals in public policy and public health.