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Published in 1991, the first edition of Forecasting and Management of Technology was one of the leading handful of books to deal with the topic of forecasting of technology and technology management as this discipline was emerging. The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development. The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting and analysis content that the first edition is reputed for. Updated by the original author team, plus new author Scott Cunningham, the book takes into account what the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers. Included in this book will be 5 case studies from various industries that show how technology management is applied in the real world.
This book introduces readers to essential technology assessment and forecasting tools, demonstrating their use on the basis of multiple cases. As organizations in the high-tech industry need to be able to assess emerging technologies, the book presents cases in which formal decision-making models are developed, providing a framework for decision-making in the context of technology acquisition and development. Applications of different technology forecasting tools are also discussed for a range of technologies and sectors, providing a guide to keep R&D organizations abreast of technological trends that affect their business. As such, the book offers a valuable the theoretical and practical reference guide for R&D managers responsible for emerging and future technologies.
This is a How-to book concerning the application of natural laws in the world of business. The first part of the book, Theory and Practice, presents the theory behind the natural laws considered and illustrates how they can be applied in real-life situations. The second part, Methods and Tools, demonstrates how to proceed in general with a customer engagement from the very beginning. Detail technical advice is given on how to fit S curves and how to employ the Volterra-Lotka equations using EXCEL. All along case studies illustrate the approach describing real engagements. For the science-friendly reader the Appendix includes rigorous mathematical formulations for the natural laws invoked in Part I and for the Excel-based curve-fitting procedures described in Part II.
Disks include versions of Tekfor and Maxim programs.
Consistently practical in its coverage, the book discusses general issues related to forecasting and management; introduces a variety of methods, and shows how to apply these methods to significant issues in managing technological development. With numerous exhibits, case studies and exercises throughout, it requires only basic mathematics and includes a special technology forecasting TOOLKIT for the IBM and compatibles, along with full instructions for installing and running the program.
Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation.
Based on four decades of experience and research, Navigating Strategic Decisions: The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting explains how to improve the decision-making process in your organization through the use of better long-term forecasts and decision support. Filled with time-tested methodologies and models, it provides you with the tools to establish the organization, processes, methods, and techniques required for analyzing and forecasting strategic decisions. Describing how to foster the conditions required for forecasts to materialize, this book will help you rank project valuations and select higher value creation projects. It also teaches you how to: Assess the commercial feasibility of large projects Apply sanity checks to forecasts and assess their resource implications Benchmark best-in-class strategic forecasting organizations, processes, and practices Identify project risks and manage project uncertainty Analyze forecasting models and scenarios to determine controllable levers Pinpoint factors needed to ensure that forecasted future states materialize as expected This book provides you with the benefit of the author’s decades of hands-on experience. In this book, John Triantis shares valuable insights on strategic planning, new product development, portfolio management, and business development groups. Describing how to provide world-class support to your corporate, market, and other planning functions, the book provides you with the tools to consistently make improved decisions that are based on hard data, balanced evaluations, well considered scenarios, and sound forecasts.
The breadth of this work will allow the reader to acquire a comprehensive and panoramic picture of the nature of innovation within a single handbook.
Originally published in 1972 this book examines technological forecasting and assesses its merits and limitations and possible uses for society, government, industry and the military. Although technological forecasting was in its infancy when this book was originally published, it has now become part of mainstream social and economic planning.
Strategic Decision Making provides an effective, formal methodology that provides help with decision making problems, especially strategic ones with high stakes involving human perceptions and judgements. Focusing on applying the AHP to decision-making problems, Strategic Decision Making covers problems in the realms of business, defence and governance. Using case studies drawn from years of experience, the book discusses decision making for real life problems and includes many worked examples and solutions to problems throughout. The reader will gain comprehensive exposure to the extent of assistance that a formal methodology, such as AHP, can provide to the decision maker in evolving decisions in complex and varied domains.