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Presenting innovative modelling approaches to the analysis of fiscal policy and government debt, this book moves beyond previous models that have relied upon the assumption that various age-specific rates and policy variables remain unchanged when it comes to generating government expenditures and tax revenues. As a result of population ageing, current policy settings in many countries are projected to lead to unsustainable levels of public debt; Tax Policy and Uncertainty explores models that allow for feedbacks and uncertainty to combat this. Applicable to any country, the models in the book explore the optimal timing and extent of tax changes in the face of anticipated high future debt. Chapters produce stochastic debt projections, including probability distribution of debt ratios at each point in time. It also offers important analysis of fiscal policy trade-offs as well as providing advice on when and by how much tax rates should be increased. Economics scholars focusing on fiscal policy will appreciate the improved models in this book that allow both for uncertainty and feedback effects arising from responses to increased debt. It will also be helpful to economic policy advisors and economists in government departments.
Tax uncertainty typically derives from institutional flaws of the tax policy process and unclear tax rules at the domestic level. At the international level tax uncertainty has its roots in the lack of tax coordination and cooperation between countries, as well as in the increased globalization and the emergence of new business models. Uncertainty may have negative effects on investment, trade and compliance. In this paper, we discuss the main sources of tax uncertainty, review the economic and empirical literature on the effects of tax uncertainty, and examine the policy measures to tackle the issue at the domestic level and the recent policy initiatives at the international level, with a focus on the EU. This survey concludes that to improve tax certainty policy makers should focus their attention on planning tax reforms and tax changes properly, clearly communicating their content and timing, and more generally establishing a structured approach in managing the tax policy process. At the international level, the best policy answers are boosting the cooperation on tax matters, developing common approaches to fighting aggressive tax planning, as well as agreeing on a clear and sustainable distribution of tax revenues for cross-border investment and more generally on a transparent and non-harmful tax competition.
Presenting innovative modelling approaches to the analysis of fiscal policy and government debt, this book moves beyond previous models that have relied upon the assumption that various age-specific rates and policy variables remain unchanged when it comes to generating government expenditures and tax revenues. As a result of population ageing, current policy settings in many countries are projected to lead to unsustainable levels of public debt; Tax Policy and Uncertainty explores models that allow for feedbacks and uncertainty to combat this.
How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
This paper investigates optimal tax policy when economic conditions are uncertain, creating risk in tax revenues. Optimal taxation with uncertainty balances costs from volatility and deadweight loss. Tax policy affects volatility through two channels; spreading risk between public and private consumption and hedging idiosyncratic tax base risk. Risk in tax revenues can be decomposed into economic uncertainty and systematic and unnecessary tax policy risk. This paper develops a volatility index that measures the cost of unnecessary risk associated with a tax portfolio. Using panel data from all US states for the years 1964-2013, I find that almost all states increased their portfolio risk during this period and half of these states exposed their tax revenues to more unnecessary risk. This suggests states could reduce their tax revenue volatility by rebalancing their tax portfolios without decreasing expected tax revenues.
Edited by Parthasarathi Shome, this Handbook was written primarily for economists who are responsible for analyzing and evaluating economic policies of developing countries at an applied level, and who would benefit from a comprehensive discussion of the concepts, principles, and prevailing issues of taxation.
Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises delivers a consistent, logical presentation of bank liquidity creation and addresses questions of research and policy interest that can be easily understood by readers with no advanced or specialized industry knowledge. Authors Allen Berger and Christa Bouwman examine ways to measure bank liquidity creation, how much liquidity banks create in different countries, the effects of monetary policy (including interest rate policy, lender of last resort, and quantitative easing), the effects of capital, the effects of regulatory interventions, the effects of bailouts, and much more. They also analyze bank liquidity creation in the US over the past three decades during both normal times and financial crises. Narrowing the gap between the "academic world" (focused on theories) and the "practitioner world" (dedicated to solving real-world problems), this book is a helpful new tool for evaluating a bank’s performance over time and comparing it to its peer group. Explains that bank liquidity creation is a more comprehensive measure of a bank’s output than traditional measures and can also be used to measure bank liquidity Describes how high levels of bank liquidity creation may cause or predict future financial crises Addresses questions of research and policy interest related to bank liquidity creation around the world and provides links to websites with data and other materials to address these questions Includes such hot-button topics as the effects of monetary policy (including interest rate policy, lender of last resort, and quantitative easing), the effects of capital, the effects of regulatory interventions, and the effects of bailouts
How does economic uncertainty affect the impact of tax policy? We exploit a natural experiment in which two very similar investment subsidies were implemented in the same country, two years apart: once during a period of economic stability, and once during a period of very high uncertainty. Exploiting sharp discontinuities in eligibility and using rich administrative data, we find that firms exposed to high uncertainty decide to “wait and see” before investing, despite generous incentives. Firms that are sheltered from uncertainty still respond strongly to policy. This implies that periods of stability offer an important policy opportunity to encourage investment.
The report examines tax policy uncertainty, noting that academic literature on tax uncertainty has failed to address so-called rent seeking. The authors build on the work of Baumol (1990), who contends that it is not just the degree of entrepreneurship that is central to economic growth but also the allocation of entrepreneurship between constructive activities and unproductive or destructive ones. The authors conclude that fundamental tax reform is an important step in reducing tax policy uncertainty. However, unless reform is specifically designed to be enduring it will be undone through rent seeking.