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Focusing on the interconnection of tariff structure, international trade and welfare evaluation, the book investigates the characteristics of tariff structures of China and the U.S. in recent years and measures the impact of the Sino–U.S. trade friction that started in 2018. The first part of the book discusses levels and evolution trends of tariff systems of China and the U.S. from 2000 to 2014 and makes a comparison between the two countries' tariff structures. The second part centers on the Sino–U.S. trade friction in 2018, analyzing its development, overall impact on welfare, and relevant impact mechanisms. The author draws on the quantitative analysis method currently prevailing in the field of international trade, taking global value chains, intermediate goods, and variable markup into consideration. In contrast to the research conclusion applying standard trade theory, the result indicates that either unilateral imposition of additional tariffs or bilateral tariff friction will give rise to the deteriorated welfare level of both countries. The book will appeal to academics and policy makers interested in international trade, China–U.S. relation and the trade friction.
Focusing on the interconnection of tariff structure, international trade and welfare evaluation, the book investigates the characteristics of tariff structures of China and the U.S. in recent years and measures the impact of the Sino–U.S. trade friction that started in 2018. The first part of the book discusses levels and evolution trends of tariff systems of China and the U.S. from 2000 to 2014 and makes a comparison between the two countries' tariff structures. The second part centers on the Sino–U.S. trade friction in 2018, analyzing its development, overall impact on welfare, and relevant impact mechanisms. The author draws on the quantitative analysis method currently prevailing in the field of international trade, taking global value chains, intermediate goods, and variable markup into consideration. In contrast to the research conclusion applying standard trade theory, the result indicates that either unilateral imposition of additional tariffs or bilateral tariff friction will give rise to the deteriorated welfare level of both countries. The book will appeal to academics and policy makers interested in international trade, China–U.S. relation and the trade friction.
We demonstrate that durable MFN tariff elimination affects trade patterns through several layers, which generates non-linear impacts. First, complete tariff elimination results in a large additional trade gains over and above tariff reductions. Second, commitment to durable tariff elimination, through WTO bindings, further boosts both imports and exports of ITA members. The unique setting of the WTO Information Technology Agreement (ITA) allows us to identify these effects of non-discriminatory trade policies because (i) ITA constitutes a quasi-natural experiment as several “passive” signatories joined it as an unavoidable part of pursuing of a larger policy objective, and (ii) ITA's partial coverage of the IT sector provides a natural control group for cross-product identification. Commitments under the ITA spurned development of a downstream IT export sector in “passive” signatories.
An accessible overview of political, economic, and strategic dimensions of global supply chains in a changing global political economy.
We use micro data collected at the border and at retailers to characterize the effects brought by recent changes in US trade policy - particularly the tariffs placed on imports from China - on importers, consumers, and exporters. We start by documenting that the tariffs were almost fully passed through to total prices paid by importers, suggesting the tariffs' incidence has fallen largely on the United States. Since we estimate the response of prices to exchange rates to be far more muted, the recent depreciation of the Chinese renminbi is unlikely to alter this conclusion. Next, using product-level data from several large multi-national retailers, we demonstrate that the impact of the tariffs on retail prices is more mixed. Some affected product categories have seen sharp price increases, but the difference between affected and unaffected products is generally quite modest, suggesting that retail margins have fallen. These retailers' imports increased after the initial announcement of possible tariffs, but before their full implementation, so the intermediate passthrough of tariffs to their prices may not persist. Finally, in contrast to the case of foreign exporters facing US tariffs, we show that US exporters lowered their prices on goods subjected to foreign retaliatory tariffs compared to exports of non-targeted goods.
In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in international trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. Not surprisingly, China's economic dynamism has generated considerable attention and concern in the United States and beyond. While some analysts have warned of the potential pitfalls of China's rise—the loss of jobs, for example—others have highlighted the benefits of new market and investment opportunities for US firms. Bringing together an expert group of contributors, China's Growing Role in World Trade undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status. The essays collected here provide detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implications, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment. This volume's careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories clarifies a number of misconceptions, disproves some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of China's trade and what it may mean to the rest of the world.
An unprecedented trade war broke out between the world’s two largest economies in 2018 and escalated subsequently. It is the first major economic conflict to occur in the era of globalization, with its aftermath going far beyond trade. The trade war weighs heavily on China and the United States and threatens the world economy and the global trading system. This book provides a timely account of the China–US trade war with insights into its causes and consequences. Examining through the lenses of both history and theory, it analyzes the context and causes of the trade war, the intertwined processes of tariff combat and trade negotiations, and the impacts on international trade, foreign direct investment, macroeconomic performance and firm behaviour. It also addresses the long-term strategic and geopolitical implications of the ongoing trade and economic confrontation. This book will appeal to those interested in international economics and politics, global governance and development.
From American master Ward Just, returning to his trademark territory of "Forgetfulness "and "The Weather in Berlin," an evocative portrait of diplomacy and desire set against the backdrop of America's first lost war
Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.