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The trade-off between interest rate variability and the width of an exchange rate target zone is examined, using the regulated Brownian motion model of target zones. The interest rate differential’s asymptotic (unconditional) variability is increasing in the exchange rate band for narrow bands; whereas it is slowly decreasing for wide bands. The interest rate differential’s instantaneous (conditional) variability is decreasing in the exchange rate band. The model is extended to include a realignment/devaluation risk, as well as an endogenous exchange rate risk premium. The risk premium is small for reasonable parameter values.
This paper studies the Mexican and Israeli experience with a target zone. The first part of the paper develops a model of exchange rate determination under a target zone regime with stochastic realignments, and examines the conditions under which the adoption of the target zone, instead of a fixed exchange rate, reduces the volatility of the interest rate differential. We conclude that if the variance of the expected realignment is sufficiently large, then the target zone will be useful. The second part of the paper is an empirical study that shows that the target zone regime helped reduce interest rate variability in Israel and Mexico by absorbing part of the shocks to the expected realignment with movements of the exchange rate inside the band.
The term structure of interest rate differentials is derived in a model of a small open economy with a target zone exchange rate regime. The target zone is modeled as a regulated Brownian motion. The interest rate differentials are computed as the solution to a parabolic partial differential equation with derivative boundary conditions, both via a Fourier-series analytical solution and via a direct numerical solution. Several specific properties of the term structure of interest rate differentials are derived. For instance, for given time to maturity the interest rate differential is decreasing in the exchange rate, and for given exchange rate the interest rate differential's absolute value and its instantaneous variability are both decreasing in the time to maturity. Devaluation/realignment risks are incorporated and imply upward shifts of the interest rate differentials. Some implications of the theory are found to be broadly consistent with data on Swedish exchange rates and interest differentials for the period 1986-1989.
Inhaltsangabe:Zusammenfassung: Währungskrisen, wie die des Europäischen Währungssystems (EWS) 1992, können noch immer nur unzureichend vorausgesagt werden. Es wird jedoch anerkannt, dass die Glaubwürdigkeit eines jeden Währungssystems ausschließlich endogen bestimmt wird, d.h. durch Interaktion der einzelnen Akteure an den Wechselkursmärkten. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht, ob ein bestimmtes Glaubwürdigkeitsmaß, eingeführt von Avesani, Gallo und Salmon (1995), geeignet ist, die große EWS Krise 1992 vorauszusagen. Dabei handelt es sich um ein dynamisches Spiel, in dem die beiden Akteure (Zentralbank und Finanzmarkt) miteinander interagieren und damit die Glaubwürdigkeit des Systems aushandeln . Es wird gezeigt, dass o.g. Glaubwürdigkeitsmaß ein geeigneter Indikator für Währungskrisen darstellt, was empirisch anhand des französischen Francs, der italienischen Lira und des niederländischen Guldens nachgewiesen wird. Introduction: The objective of the present study is to present the literature of exchange rate target zones and to explore empirically the Avesani-Gallo-Salmon credibility measure for selected currencies belonging to the Exchange-Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS). In the past decade the empirical literature on real world target zones mushroomed considerably, but still, its overall significance in explaining strains in the relevant foreign exchange markets remains relatively low. In this context, I will explore whether the Avesani-Gallo-Salmon (1995) credibility measure demonstrates more power than earlier studies in the analysis of the 1992/3 EMS crisis. It is not my intention to pursue a normative analysis whether flexible or fixed exchange rates or intermediate regimes are superior to one another in terms of their economic implications. This question is beyond the scope of my analysis.1 Given that target zones are applied frequently in the real world, I purely want to figure out, whether their application is sensible on grounds of a firm commitment of the policy-makers. Exchange rate bands have been discussed widely after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System in 1973. Although experiences with the fixed exchange rate regime were disappointing in the 1960s, increased volatility and/or overshooting of the exchange rates in the 1970s let economists doubt the famous argument by Friedman (1953) that speculation would stabilize exchange rate movements in the floating system. McKinnon (1976) reckoned that [...]
In the context of a flexible-price monetary exchange rate model and the assumption of uncovered interest parity, we obtain a measure of the fundamental determinant of exchange rates. Daily data for the European Monetary System are used to explore the importance of nonlinearities in the relationship between the exchange rates and fundamentals. Many implications of existing “target-zone” exchange rate models are tested; little support is found for existing nonlinear models of limited exchange rate flexibility.
In this paper we develop an empirical model of exchange rates in a target zone. The model is general enough to nest most theoretical and empirical models in the existing literature. We find evidence of two types of jumps in exchange rates. Realignment jumps are those that are associated with the periodic realignments of the target zone and within-the-band jumps are those that can be accommodated within the current target zone. The exchange rate may jump outside the current target zone band, in the case of a realignment, but when no jump occurs the target zone is credible (there is zero probability of a realignment) and the exchange rate must stay within the band. We incorporate jumps, in general, by conditioning the distribution of exchange rate changes on a jump variable where the probability and size of a jump vary over time as a function of financial and macroeconomic variables. With this more general model, we revisit the empirical evidence from the European Monetary System regarding the conditional distribution of exchange rate changes, the credibility of the system, and the size of the foreign exchange risk premia. In contrast to some previous findings, we conclude that the FF/DM rate exhibits considerable non-linearities, realignments are predictable and the credibility of the system did not increase after 1987. Moreover, our model implies that the foreign exchange risk premium becomes large during speculative crises. A comparison with the Deutschemark/Dollar rate suggests that an explicit target zone does have a noticeable effect on the time-series behavior of exchange rates.