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Mathematical modeling and computer simulation make it possible to understand and control the dynamic processes taking place in complex systems. Simulation provides insights into the often surprising diversity of possible behaviors, and allows identifying possibilities for intervention and options for alternative development. About one hundred simulation models from all areas of life are fully documented in the three volumes of the 'System Zoo'. They can be quickly implemented and easily operated using freely available system dynamics software. Volume 2 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of the regional water cycle and global carbon cycle, the photosynthesis of vegetation, forest growth, the water, nutrient, and energy dynamics of agriculture, the interaction of plants, animals, and humans with other organisms and resources by predation, harvesting, and competition for nutrients, and through utilization of renewable and exploitation of nonrenewable resources. The System Zoo collection of simulation models is particularly well-suited for teaching, training, and research projects at all levels from high school to university, and for individual study. Volume 1 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of elementary systems, and of systems from the fields of physics and engineering. Volume 3 deals with systems and processes found in economy and society, and with long-term global development. Hartmut Bossel is Professor Emeritus of environmental systems analysis. He taught for many years at the University of California in Santa Barbara and the University of Kassel, Germany, where he was director of the Center for Environmental Systems Research until his retirement. He holds an engineering degree from the Technical University of Darmstadt, and a Ph.D. degree from the University of California at Berkeley. With a background in engineering, systems science, and mathematical modeling, he has led many research projects and future studies in different countries, developing computer simulation models and decision support systems in the areas of energy supply policy, global dynamics, orientation of behavior, agricultural policy, and forest dynamics and management. He has written numerous books on modeling and simulation of dynamic systems, social change and future paths, and has published widely in the scientific literature in several fields.
About the book: Mathematical modeling and computer simulation make it possible to understand and control the dynamic processes taking place in complex systems. Simulation provides insights into the often surprising diversity of possible behaviors, and allows identifying possibilities for intervention and options for alternative development. About one hundred simulation models from all areas of life are fully documented in the three volumes of the 'System Zoo'. They can be quickly implemented and easily operated using freely available system dynamics software. Volume 3 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of economic and social systems and global development, among them: production, stocks and orders, marketing and consumption, competition, life planning, employment, ecotax, escalation, dependence, aggression, population and community development, debt crisis, globalization, the world models of the Club of Rome (by Forrester and the Meadows group) and examples of nonnumerical knowledge processing applied to impact assessment and decision processes. The System Zoo collection of simulation models is particularly well-suited for teaching, training, and research projects at all levels from high school to university, and for individual study. Volume 1 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of elementary systems, and of systems from the fields of physics and engineering. Volume 2 of the System Zoo presents simulation models related to climate, vegetation, ecosystems and resources. About the author: Hartmut Bossel is Professor Emeritus of environmental systems analysis. He taught for many years at the University of California in Santa Barbara and the University of Kassel, Germany, where he was director of the Center for Environmental Systems Research until his retirement. He holds an engineering degree from the Technical University of Darmstadt, and a Ph.D. degree from the University of California at Berkeley. With a background in engineering, systems science, and mathematical modeling, he has led many research projects and future studies in different countries, developing computer simulation models and decision support systems in the areas of energy supply policy, global dynamics, orientation of behavior, agricultural policy, and forest dynamics and management. He has written numerous books on modeling and simulation of dynamic systems, social change and future paths, and has published widely in the scientific literature in several fields.
About the book: Mathematical modeling and computer simulation make it possible to understand and control the dynamic processes taking place in complex systems. Simulation provides insights into the often surprising diversity of possible behaviors, and allows identifying possibilities for intervention and options for alternative development. About one hundred simulation models from all areas of life are fully documented in the three volumes of the 'System Zoo'. They can be quickly implemented and easily operated using freely available system dynamics software. Volume 1 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of elementary processes, and of complex systems from physics and engineering, among them: exponential and logistic growth, oscillations, delays, and storage; phenomena of infection, transition, and overload; complex systems with limit cycles, multiple equilibrium points and chaotic attractors; and applications from control engineering, flight dynamics, fluid flow and heat conduction. The System Zoo collection of simulation models is particularly well-suited for teaching, training, and research projects at all levels from high school to university, and for individual study. Volume 2 of the System Zoo contains simulation models related to climate, vegetation, ecosystems and resources. Volume 3 deals with systems and processes found in economy and society, and with long-term global development. About the author: Hartmut Bossel is Professor Emeritus of environmental systems analysis. He taught for many years at the University of California in Santa Barbara and the University of Kassel, Germany, where he was director of the Center for Environmental Systems Research until his retirement. He holds an engineering degree from the Technical University of Darmstadt, and a Ph.D. degree from the University of California at Berkeley. With a background in engineering, systems science, and mathematical modeling, he has led many research projects and future studies in different countries, developing computer simulation models and decision support systems in the areas of energy supply policy, global dynamics, orientation of behavior, agricultural policy, and forest dynamics and management. He has written numerous books on modeling and simulation of dynamic systems, social change and future paths, and has published widely in the scientific literature in several fields.
This two-volume book describes a flexible and adaptive system-based methodology and associated guidelines for the management and allocation of community-based WELF resources. Over the next 50 years, rapid population, urbanization, and economic growth worldwide will create unprecedented demands for water, energy, land, and food (WELF) resources. The discussion on how to meet human needs for WELF resources and how to guarantee their respective securities has changed over time from looking at all four sectors in isolation to understanding their interdependency through the so-called WELF nexus. The approach presented in this book responds to the overall agreement in the WELF nexus literature that the management and allocation of WELF resources at the community level need to be examined in a more systemic, multidisciplinary, participatory, and practical manner while seeking to increase synergies and reduce trade-offs. This book was written to explore the value proposition of that approach. This two-volume book describes a flexible and adaptive system-based methodology and associated guidelines for the management and allocation of community-based WELF resources. Volume 1 focuses on defining the landscape in which the nexus operates and outlines the proposed methodology. Volume 2 explores the quantitative and qualitative modeling of the nexus and landscape using system modeling tools including system dynamics. It presents a road map for the formulation, simulation, selection, and ranking of possible intervention plans. The proposed methodology is designed to serve as a guide for different groups involved in the science and policy decision aspects of the WELF nexus within the context of community development. The methodology focuses mostly on WELF-related issues in small-scale and low-income communities where securing resources is critical to their short- and long-term livelihood and development.
This book makes the case for a systems approach to small-scale community development projects. It specifically looks at the application of one branch of systems science, called system dynamics, to develop conceptual models of small-scale communities and address specific issues they might be facing at different scales. A systems approach recognizes that, by definition, communities are complex adaptive systems consisting of multiple subsystems and parts (e.g., individuals, institutions, and infrastructure) that are interconnected, driven by some purpose, follow certain rules, and interact with each other and with their surrounding environment. In order to address community issues and problems, complexity and uncertainty must be embraced and dealt with. Inside, the author emphasizes and shows how to include a system- and complexity-aware approach in the different phases of small-scale community project management. Adopting this approach comes with unique challenges such as dealing with ill-defined problems, considering uncertainty, recognizing that no unique and best solutions to complex problems exist, and accepting satisficing solutions. The text demonstrates the need for community development practitioners to integrate in all stages of their projects: participation, systems thinking, continuous reflection-in-action, and a combination of critical and creative tools.
Promoting peace and sustainability in human development while accounting for the risks associated with the impact of climate change on society has become more imperative than ever when addressing humanity's challenges of the twenty-first century. There is enough evidence that peace, sustainability, and climate security are entangled with multiple complex interactions and cannot be dealt with in isolation and independently from the environment and the numerous systems with which they interact. Yet, the intersection of peace, sustainability, and climate security or their opposites (i.e., conflict, unsustainability, and climate vulnerability) is rarely articulated with a systemic mindset. A multi-solving nexus approach is more appropriate to capture the complexity and uncertainty of how the three sectors of peace, sustainability, and climate security play a role in community development, the nature of their causal chains, and the feedback on how community development affects the three sectors. Navigating the Complexity Across the Peace–Sustainability–Climate Security Nexus explores the value proposition of using a systems approach, methodology, and tools to comprehend and model that dynamic. Features of the book: Explores the interaction between the different components of peace and the relationship between peace, sustainability, and climate security using semi-qualitative and quantitative tools; Explains how climate adaptation and mitigation are related to peace or conflict; Presents generic system dynamics modeling that can be used in different contexts.
Patient safety in health systems has become more and more important as a theme in health research, and so it is not surprising to see a growing interest in applying systems thinking to healthcare. However there is a difficulty – health systems are very complex and constantly adapting to respond to core drivers and fit needs. How do you apply systems thinking in this situation, and what methods are available? National health authorities, international donors and research practitioners need to know the “how-to” of conducting health systems research from a systems thinking perspective. This book will fill this gap and provide a range of tools that give clear guidance of ways to carry out systems thinking in health. These methodologies include: System dynamics and causal loops Network analysis Outcome mapping Soft systems methodology Written by an international team of experts in health research, this handbook will be essential reading for those working in or researching public health, health policy, health systems, global health, service improvement and innovation in practice.
A multitude of complex systems and actors pursuing their own agenda shape the dynamics of our world. Better understanding of their actions and interactions is crucial, and can be achieved by a profound knowledge of systems and their properties, and their representation in models allowing simulation of probable behavior. Drawing on his extensive research and teaching experience in modeling and simulation of a wide range of systems - from engineering to social systems and ecosystems - the author presents the fundamental concepts and approaches for understanding and modeling the complex systems shaping the dynamics of our world. The book applies state space analysis and system dynamics to deal with the dynamic processes of "causal systems," discusses information processing approaches for modeling decision processes of "actors" and "agents," and uses aspects of the coevolutionary development of systems in their environment to deal with normative orientation, ethics, and evaluation of policies and long-term development. The concepts are applied in particular to the issue of sustainable development of human society in an evolving world. The book is complemented by a survey of system topics and of models from many fields, and by an extensive bibliography on the many systems-related subjects covered. Hartmut Bossel is Professor Emeritus of environmental systems analysis. He taught for many years at the University of California in Santa Barbara and the University of Kassel, Germany, where he was director of the Center for Environmental Systems Research until his retirement. He holds an engineering degree from the Technical University of Darmstadt, and a Ph.D. degree from the University of California at Berkeley. With a background in engineering, systems science, and mathematical modeling, he has led many research projects and future studies in different countries, developing computer simulation models and decision support systems in the areas of energy supply policy, global dynamics, orientation of behavior, agricultural policy, and forest dynamics and management. He has written numerous books on modeling and simulation of dynamic systems, social change and future paths, and has published widely in the scientific literature in several fields. Bossel is author of a System Zoo containing over one hundred simulation models of diverse systems.
While there is growing evidence of the importance of marine ecosystems for our societies, evidence shows also that pressures from human activities on these ecosystems are increasing, putting the health of marine ecosystems at stake worldwide. Hence, Blue Economy is becoming an important component of future socio-economic development strategies (e.g. this is called Blue Growth in Europe), that eventually can result in increasing pressures at sea, and despite the current regulatory framework (in particular with the Oceans Act, in USA or Canada, and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, in Europe), it is likely that this situation will continue in the future. Ensuring all those connected to the sea, directly or indirectly, gain a better understanding of the importance of the seas, the human-sea interactions and opportunities to act better and reduce impacts from human pressures, is central to Ocean Literacy (OL). Receiving increasing attention in Europe and USA, OL is a challenge for all parts of society: educators & trainers, children and professionals, civil society and scientists, consumers and policy/decision makers. It is seen as part of the package of solutions that will lead to a change in behavior and practice, thus reducing impacts and resulting in healthier marine ecosystems, whilst allowing development opportunities offered by seas are seized in a sustainable manner. This Research Topic focuses on the issues and options for effective OL worldwide. It discusses: (1) existing experiences in OL (formal and informal education for children, training for professionals, tools for raising awareness of consumers - and of investors in the marine sectors...) and their effectiveness (from understanding better to acting differently); (2) the role OL could play (in interaction with innovation, regulation, economic incentive, social norms...) to support human capital development as key component of sustainable growth; and (3) pre-conditions for effective OL for different sectors and target groups. Questions relevant to OL include: Which knowledge - produced by whom - to share and how? Who to target - and how to effectively reach those targeted? How to design OL initiatives - including by mobilizing those targeted (via living lab approaches e.g.) - to ensure effective OL and pave the way for behavior change? What are the knowledge gaps that limit our capacity to design effective OL? As scientists, it is likely you have many more questions to offer and discuss.
Models and simulations of all kinds are tools for dealing with reality. Humans have always used mental models to better understand the world around them: to make plans, to consider different possibilities, to share ideas with others, to test changes, and to determine whether or not the development of an idea is feasible. The book Modeling and Simulation uses exactly the same approach except that the traditional mental model is translated into a computer model, and the simulations of alternative outcomes under varying conditions are programmed on the computer. The advantage of this method is that the computer can track the multitude of implications and consequences in complex relationships much more quickly and reliably than the human mind. This unique interdisciplinary text not only provides a self contained and complete guide to the methods and mathematical background of modeling and simulation software (SIMPAS) and a collection of 50 systems models on an accompanying diskette. Students from fields as diverse as ecology and economics will find this clear interactive package an instructive and engaging guide.