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This paper proposes a novel way of formulating priors for estimating economic models. System priors are priors about the model's features and behavior as a system, such as the sacrifice ratio or the maximum duration of response of inflation to a particular shock, for instance. System priors represent a very transparent and economically meaningful way of formulating priors about parameters, without the unintended consequences of independent priors about individual parameters. System priors may complement or also substitute for independent marginal priors. The new philosophy of formulating priors is motivated, explained and illustrated using a structural model for monetary policy.
The paper introduces “system priors”, their use in Bayesian analysis of econometric time series, and provides a simple and illustrative application. System priors were devised by Andrle and Benes (2013) as a tool to incorporate prior knowledge into an economic model. Unlike priors about individual parameters, system priors offer a simple and efficient way of formulating well-defined and economically-meaningful priors about high-level model properties. The generality of system priors are illustrated using an AR(2) process with a prior that most of its dynamics comes from business-cycle frequencies.
This is the first book on the provocative and innovative contributions to philosophy of language, metaphysics, the philosophy of mathematics, and logic made by Kit Fine, one of the world's foremost philosophers. Topics covered include meaning and representation, arbitrary objects, essence, ontological realism, and the metaphysics of modality.
This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed joint post-conference proceedings of two consecutive International Workshops on Learning Classifier Systems that took place in Seattle, WA, USA in July 2006, and in London, UK, in July 2007 - all hosted by the Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference, GECCO. The 14 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from the workshop contributions. The papers are organized in topical sections on knowledge representation, analysis of the system, mechanisms, new directions, as well as applications.
In 1995, the DoD began an effort to implement a standard departmentwide travel system, the Defense Travel System (DTS). This testimony focuses on prior reporting concerning: (1) the lack of quantitative metrics to measure the extent to which DTS is actually being used; (2) weaknesses with DTS¿s requirements mgmt. and system testing; and (3) two key assumptions related to the estimated cost savings in the Sept. 2003 DTS economic analysis were not reasonable. Also highlights actions that DoD could explore to help streamline its administrative travel processes such as using a commercial database to identify unused airline tickets. Includes recommendations. Charts and tables.
This volume contains the proceedings of the 7th Valencia International Meeting on Bayesian Statistics. This conference is held every four years and provides the main forum for researchers in the area of Bayesian statistics to come together to present and discuss frontier developments in the field.
This 1996 book describes an exciting theoretical paradigm for visual perception based on experimental and computational insights.
This book brings together perspectives on predictive processing and expected experience. It features contributions from an interdisciplinary group of authors specializing in philosophy, psychology, cognitive science, and neuroscience. Predictive processing, or predictive coding, is the theory that the brain constantly minimizes the error of its predictions based on the sensory input it receives from the world. This process of prediction error minimization has numerous implications for different forms of conscious and perceptual experience. The chapters in this volume explore these implications and various phenomena related to them. The contributors tackle issues related to precision estimation, sensory prediction, probabilistic perception, and attention, as well as the role predictive processing plays in emotion, action, psychotic experience, anosognosia, and gut complex. Expected Experiences will be of interest to scholars and advanced students in philosophy, psychology, and cognitive science working on issues related to predictive processing and coding.
Andy Clark is a leading philosopher of cognitive science, whose work has had an extraordinary impact throughout philosophy, psychology, neuroscience, and robotics. His monographs have led the way for new research programs in the philosophy of mind and cognition: Microcognition (1989) and Associative Engines (1993) introduced the philosophical community to connectionist research and the novel issues it raised; Being There (1997) showed the relevance of embodiment, dynamical systems theory, and minimal computation frameworks for the study of the mind; Natural Born Cyborgs (OUP 2003) presented an accessible development of embodied and embedded approaches to understanding human nature and cognition; Supersizing the Mind (OUP 2008) developed this yet further along with the famous "Extended Mind" hypothesis; and Surfing Uncertainty (OUP 2017) presents a framework for uniting perception, action, and the embodied mind. In Andy Clark and His Critics, a range of high-profile researchers in philosophy of mind, philosophy of cognitive science, and empirical cognitive science, critically engage with Clark's work across the themes of: Extended, Embodied, Embedded, Enactive, and Affective Minds; Natural Born Cyborgs; and Perception, Action, and Prediction. Daniel Dennett provides a foreword on the significance of Clark's work, and Clark replies to each section of the book, thus advancing current literature with original contributions that will form the basis for new discussions, debates and directions in the discipline.