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Five years into the ongoing and tragic conflict, the paper analyzes how Syria’s economy and its people have been affected and outlines the challenges in rebuilding the economy. With extreme limitations on information, the findings of the paper are subject to an extraordinary degree of uncertainty. The key messages are: (1) that the devastating civil war has set the country back decades in terms of economic, social and human development. Syria’s GDP today is less than half of what it was before the war started and it could take two decades or more for Syria to return to its pre-conflict GDP levels; and that (2) while reconstructing damaged physical infrastructure will be a monumental task, rebuilding Syria’s human and social capital will be an even greater and lasting challenge.
Five years into the ongoing and tragic conflict, the paper analyzes how Syria's economy and its people have been affected and outlines the challenges in rebuilding the economy. With extreme limitations on information, the findings of the paper are subject to an extraordinary degree of uncertainty. The key messages are: (1) that the devastating civil war has set the country back decades in terms of economic, social and human development. Syria's GDP today is less than half of what it was before the war started and it could take two decades or more for Syria to return to its pre-conflict GDP levels; and that (2) while reconstructing damaged physical infrastructure will be a monumental task, rebuilding Syria's human and social capital will be an even greater and lasting challenge.
The people of the Mashreq have seen more than their share of deaths, economic losses, and instability over the past decade. As the decade-long conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic created new challenges and worsened the existing ones, economic activity declined, labor markets deteriorated, and poverty increased. These trends would overwhelm even the most advanced economies in the world. The Fallout of War: The Regional Consequences of the Conflict in Syria identifies the impact of the Syrian conflict on economic and social outcomes in Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. It combines a large number of data sources, statistical approaches, and a suite of economic models to isolate the specific impact of the Syrian conflict from that of global and regional factors, and it explicitly analyzes the mechanisms through which such an impact is manifested. The analysis suggests that a persistent short-termism in policy making has so far propagated the shock emanating from the Syrian conflict, which led to costly and ineffective service provision, lost economic opportunities, and underfunded programs. The report advocates for a fundamental shift from the short-term mitigation policies to a medium-term regional strategy to address pertinent structural problems. Moreover, as the countries in the Mashreq look toward recovery, a policy approach that takes into account the region’s interconnectedness and seeks to build on it provides better prospects for the people. Such a regional approach that addresses cross-boundary issues—including migration, trade, and infrastructure—will require local, regional, and international commitments.
This edited collection aims to analytically reconceptualise the Syrian crisis by examining how and why the country has moved from a stable to a war-torn society. It is written by scholars from a variety of disciplinary backgrounds, all of whom make no attempt to speculate on the future trajectory of the conflict, but aim instead to examine the historical background that has laid the objective conditions for Syria’s descent to its current situation. Their work represents an attempt to dissect the multi-layered foundation of the Syrian conflict and to make understanding its complex inner workings accessible to a broader readership. The book is divided into four parts, each of which elaborates on the origins and dynamics of today’s crisis from the perspective of a different discipline. When put together, the four parts provide a holistic picture of Syria’s developmental trajectory from the early twentieth century through to the present day. Themes addressed include Syria’s postcolonial development efforts, its leap into socialism and then into neoliberalism in the late twentieth century, its politics within the resistance front, and finally its food and health security concerns.
Presents a new conceptual framework drawing on human security to evaluate the claim that climate change caused the conflict in Syria.
The war in Syria, now in its eighth year, continues to take its toll on the Syrian people. More than half of the population of Syria remains displaced; 5.6 million persons are registered as refugees outside of the country and another 6.2 million are displaced within Syria's borders. The internally displaced persons include 2 million school-age children; of these, less than half attend school. Another 739,000 Syrian children are out of school in the five neighborhood countries that host Syria's refugees. The loss of human capital is staggering, and it will create permanent hardships for generations of Syrians going forward. Despite the tragic prospects for renewed fighting in certain parts of the country, an overall reduction in armed conflict is possible going forward. However, international experience shows that the absence of fighting is rarely a singular trigger for the return of displaced people. Numerous other factors—including improved security and socioeconomic conditions in origin states, access to property and assets, the availability of key services, and restitution in home areas—play important roles in shaping the scale and composition of the returns. Overall, refugees have their own calculus of return that considers all of these factors and assesses available options. The Mobility of Displaced Syrians: An Economic and Social Analysis sheds light on the 'mobility calculus' of Syrian refugees. While dismissing any policies that imply wrongful practices involving forced repatriation, the study analyzes factors that may be considered by refugees in their own decisions to relocate. It provides a conceptual framework, supported by data and analysis, to facilitate an impartial conversation about refugees and their mobility choices. It also explores the diversified policy toolkit that the international community has available—and the most effective ways in which the toolkit can be adapted—to maximize the well-being of refugees, host countries, and the people in Syria.
The Fallout of War identifies the impact of the Syrian conflict on economic and social outcomes in Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. It combines a large number of data sources, statistical approaches, and a suite of economic models that isolate the specific impact of the Syrian conflict among numerous global and regional factors.
Based on extensive field work involving the leading figures of the diverse Syrian National Coalition, an umbrella initiative of opposition groups fighting against the Assad regime, this study critically evaluates the challenges ahead as well as the inherent opportunities for the post-conflict era in Syria.
The Kurdistan region of Iraq is facing an economic and humanitarian crisis as a result of the influx of Syrian refugees which began in 2012 and internally displaced persons (IDPs) in 2014. The region's population increased by 28 percent over a short period, placing strains on the local economy, host community, and access to public services. This book provides national and regional policy makers with a technical assessment of the impact and stabilization costs needed for 2015 associated with the influx of refugees and IDPs. The stabilization cost for 2015 is estimated at US$1.4 billion in additional spending above and beyond the region's budget. This estimate could significantly increase should the crisis persist longer. The study highlights how prices and unemployment have increased, and refugees and IDPs entering the labor market are pushing wages down. A surge in violence led to supply side shocks. The ISIS crisis has had a significant effect on trade of goods and services. Transportation routes were disrupted. Foreign direct investment flows have declined and operations of foreign enterprises have been adversely affected. Disruption of public investment projects have had a negative impact on the economy. Based on the World Bank estimates, economic growth contracted by 5 percentage points in the region and the poverty rate more than doubled, rising from 3.5 percent to 8.1 percent. While the government has been responsive to addressing the needs of the displaced population up until now, more resources are needed to avert this humanitarian crisis and address the needs of the displaced population in the medium- and long-term. The report is an outcome of close collaboration between a wide spectrum of World Bank experts and regional government institutions and international partners.
"Three years into a conflict that is estimated to have killed at least 140,000 people, the Syrian economy lies in ruins. Assets and infrastructure have been destroyed, half of the population lives below the poverty line, and the human development index has fallen back to where it stood 37 years ago. It is estimated that even with average annual growth rate of 5 percent it would take nearly 30 years to recover Syria's 2010 GDP value. In a new ECFR policy brief, "Syria's war economy", Visiting Fellow Jihad Yazigi argues that against the backdrop of armed conflict we see the spread of a war economy, which both feeds directly off the violence and incentivises continued fighting. The Syrian economy has witnessed four stages of decline provoked by the outbreak of the conflict, the imposition of sanctions, the expansion of fighting into the country's economic powerhouses and the opposition seizure of the resource-rich northeast. Nonetheless, regime-controlled areas remain resilient particularly because of the critical support provided by domestic and international allies: The expansion of the war economy in opposition-controlled areas has been fuelled by the intra-rebel fight for lucrative resources such as oil fields and grain stores, but the rise of state militias and the impact of sanctions have also created powerful new networks on the regime side. A growing number of groups on both sides of the divide now reap significant material benefit from the conflict, which gives them a powerful incentive to prolong the fight -- The relative autonomy gained by local stakeholders is creating new power centres that are likely to clash with any future central government. The entrenched fragmentation of the economy means that areas controlled by the regime and the opposition have become increasingly disconnected -- However, the fragmentation of the economy could also be part of a solution to the crisis: Europeans and other international actors should consider an approach built around a decentralised political system as a way of appeasing the fears of all sides and providing a means of working towards a new national consensus from the bottom up. "As security has collapsed, an informal economy comprising looting, kidnapping, and smuggling has become an important source of income. Entirely new business networks, often illicit, are emerging and new groups and individuals are being empowered at the expense of the traditional business class."--Jihad Yazigi.