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This book analyzes the process of international financial integration and the structural forces driving private capital to developing countries. Against this background, it details the potential benefits of integration and the implications of fast-moving global capital flows for emerging economics. Examining the experience of countries that have attracted substantial private capital flows, the book provides invaluable guidance as to what works and what doesn't during the transition to financial integration. It will be of compelling interest to policymakers and also to international investors and bankers, financial analysts, and researchers.
Foreign finance for private sector development (PSD) has become popular with the donor community and in multilateral development policy fora, seen as an antidote for recipient economies' aid dependency and a way of accomplishing growth, poverty reduction and empowerment. This book analyzes the pattern of foreign finance for PSD and examines multilateral and bilateral donors' practices in PSD financing, giving special attention to microfinance and microenterprises. It also models and explains private capital flows from developed to developing countries and reverse flows in the form of capital flight.
Since 1989, private capital flows to a select group of developing countries have increased sharply, but developments in 1994 have caused concern about the sustainability of those flows. Several highly indebted developing countries that are implementing reform are concerned that a generalized reversal - similar to episodes of capital flight in the early 1980s - might disrupt their economies and threaten economic reform. Because the surge in private capital flows coincided with a period of low international interest rates and intensive policy reform in developing countries, debate has been active about whether the surge is driven mainly by domestic (pull) or external (push) factors. Under the pull hypothesis, successful domestic policies are the key to ensuring sustainable capital inflows; under the push hypothesis, an increase in international interest rates would cause a reversal of those flows (back to the industrial world). Using a partial adjustment model in which both domestic and external variables are defined, the authors explain why private capital flows to some developing countries but not to others (using panel data for 1986-93 for 22 countries). They argue that a generalized reversal is unlikely in countries that maintain a fundamentally sound macroeconomic environment. In fact, their empirical results show that domestic factors such as domestic savings and investment ratios significantly affected the recent surge in capital inflows. Further, they suggest that countries that have not received significant foreign capital - including countries in sub-Saharan Africa - could begin to if they implemented structural reforms that allow them to export, save, and invest at higher rates. Reducing their foreign debt (which might call for a continuation of recent debt reduction operations) could also help attract foreign private investors.
October 1995 A severe global capital squeeze and a big increase in global real interest rates (which some fear) are unlikely if industrial countries continue fiscal consolidation -- especially the reform of social security systems. Without such consolidation, global real interest rates could rise well above already high recent levels (about 4 percent), with adverse consequences for all countries. Qureshi assesses the medium- to long-term outlook for global demand and supply of capital. He reaches the following conclusions: * The demand for investment funds in developing countries will remain strong, but most increased demand will likely be met by domestic savings. Investment's share in GDP will probably rise in these countries, but so will savings' share, so their net claim on industrial countries' savings is likely to remain small. Of course, savings will not rise automatically. It is essential that policies, institutions, and the economic environment be conducive to saving. * Financial liberalization and integration of international capital markets will continue to give developing countries as a group improved access to private foreign capital. But whether specific countries attract and sustain such inflows will depend on their economic prospects and policies, including conditions that promote domestic saving and investment (to both attract foreign capital and help limit it to sustainable levels). Investment needs in developing countries are great, but effective demand for foreign capital will remain limited by the countries' perceived creditworthiness and viability. Despite the sharp rise in aggregate private capital flows to developing countries in the 1990s, only a dozen or so of them receive significant amounts of private capital. * Most low-income countries will continue to depend mainly on official capital for some time. But official capital will likely be increasingly scarce, so these countries must intensify their domestic resource mobilization and accelerate the policy reform needed to attract private investment. * The critical factor in alleviating pressure on global interest rates will be progress on fiscal consolidation in industrial countries, especially the reform of social security systems. Net capital flows from industrial to developing countries are much smaller than the budget deficits in industrial countries. In 1994, for example, lowering the industrial countries' budget deficit by about 20 percent would have freed up enough money to finance the entire net capital flow to developing countries. * International capital markets will tend to remain tight in the coming decade, but a severe global capital squeeze and a big increase in global real interest rates (which some fear) are unlikely if industrial countries continue fiscal consolidation. Without such consolidation, global real interest rates could rise well above already high recent levels of about 4 percent, with adverse consequences for all countries. This paper -- a product of the International Economic Analysis and Prospects Division, International Economics Department -- is part of a larger effort in the department to analyze major trends and issues in the global economic outlook and their implications for developing countries.
The demand pressure and the plethora of evidences observed in the form of increasing infrastructure financing gap, ageing infrastructure, environmental factors, such as climate change and rising quality standards are factors attracting institutional and private sector participation in infrastructure investment. Therefore, the search for innovative means of financing infrastructure has become incessant. Also, the features of the financial landscape, especially in a financial crisis has further underpinned the significance of looking beyond the present infrastructure need, to a more sustained infrastructure financing scheme anticipated from institutional investors. A well established capital market has therefore been identified as a viable option for long term and steady global capital flows to financing infrastructure projects; else, the burden will remain on governments to offer direct or indirect support to private investors in attracting financing for infrastructure development. This book therefore conceptually investigates the potentials of the capital market and institutional investors’ capital flows in bridging the global infrastructure funding gap. A fundamental conclusion from the book revealed that institutional investors particularly pension funds have the capacity to pool enormous resources into the infrastructure market, thus emphatically projecting them as a force to be reckoned with in the global infrastructure investments.