Lodovico Pizzati
Published: 2016
Total Pages: 39
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What role do supply-side factors play in the dynamics of output and absorption in exchange rate-based stabilization programs?AgEnor and Pizzati study the dynamics of output, consumption, and real wages induced by a disinflation program based on permanent and temporary reductions in the nominal devaluation rate.They use an intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy in which domestic households face imperfect world capital markets, the labor supply is endogenous, and wages are flexible.The model predicts that, with a constant capital stock and no investment, there is an initial reduction in real wages and output expands. Consumption falls on impact but increases afterward.In addition, with a temporary shock, a current account deficit emerges and, later, a recession sets in, as documented in various studies.With endogenous capital accumulation, numerical simulations show that the model can also predict a boom in investment.This paper is a product of the Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction Division, World Bank Institute. The authors may be contacted at
[email protected] and
[email protected].