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"One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
"A city that doesn't believe in magic. A weredragon invasion. Good thing this reckless playboy is a wizard... It's been said that monsters cry when a good man goes to war. But they should run screaming like terrified school girls when that man is a wizard, and not necessarily good..."--Author's website.
The Brothers Grimm - legendary supernatural assassins - have escaped their prison, and their first day in St. Louis could be Nate Temple's last... Sharing a beer with Death - one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse - really put a few things into perspective for this foul-mouthed, billionaire wizard. Like finally strapping on the boots to propose to his girlfriend. But assassination contracts have a way of putting wedding plans on hold. Perhaps permanently. And with the entire wedding party on the bloodthirsty Grimm's hit-list, and his family fortune in jeopardy, Nate realizes they can't run and they can't hide. So, time to do magic and stuff... But with every flavor of supernatural thug teaming up to help the Grimms, Nate realizes that friends have become enemies and enemies have become friends, and he's forced to cross lines that are better left uncrossed. When magic, claws, and teeth dance to the song of war, the only thing left to learn is who lives and who dies. And if Nate can live with the consequences. No wonder a guy is terrified to propose... If you like Jim Butcher, Kevin Hearne, or Patrick Rothfuss, you will LOVE the fourth installment of The Nate Temple Supernatural Thriller series.
You thought you knew how crazy the TempleVerse could get? Hold my beer¿LAST CALL is a collection of three drunken novellas set in the TempleVerse, including:Motherlucker-Callie and Quinn's girls' night out in Vegas.Collins-Quinn's prequel novella to the Phantom Queen Diaries.Beerlympian-Gunnar's bachelor party.Get ready for some shenanigans¿ You might need a drink just to comprehend the insanity.
The importance of achieving focus goes well beyond your own productivity. Deep focus allows you to lead others successfully, find clarity amid uncertainty, and heighten your sense of professional fulfillment. Yet the forces that challenge sustained focus range from dinging phones to office politics to life's everyday worries. This book explains how to strengthen your ability to focus, manage your team's attention, and break the cycle of distraction. This volume includes the work of: Daniel Goleman Heidi Grant Amy Jen Su Rasmus Hougaard HOW TO BE HUMAN AT WORK. The HBR Emotional Intelligence Series features smart, essential reading on the human side of professional life from the pages of Harvard Business Review. Each book in the series offers proven research showing how our emotions impact our work lives, practical advice for managing difficult people and situations, and inspiring essays on what it means to tend to our emotional well-being at work. Uplifting and practical, these books describe the social skills that are critical for ambitious professionals to master.
This Open access book offers updated and revised information on vessel health and preservation (VHP), a model concept first published in poster form in 2008 and in JVA in 2012, which has received a great deal of attention, especially in the US, UK and Australia. The book presents a model and a new way of thinking applied to vascular access and administration of intravenous treatment, and shows how establishing and maintaining a route of access to the bloodstream is essential for patients in acute care today. Until now, little thought has been given to an intentional process to guide selection, insertion and management of vascular access devices (VADs) and by default actions are based on crisis management when a quickly selected VAD fails. The book details how VHP establishes a framework or pathway model for each step of the patient experience, intentionally guiding, improving and eliminating risk when possible. The evidence points to the fact that reducing fragmentation, establishing a pathway, and teaching the process to all stakeholders reduces complications with intravenous therapy, improves efficiency and diminishes cost. As such this book appeals to bedside nurses, physicians and other health professionals.
Rage, rage against the dying of the lightIn the stygian darkness beneath his ancestral mausoleum, Nate sets out to explore the shadowed history of his infamous Temple ancestors.And to brutally destroy a poisonous weed threatening to strangle his family tree.Aiden Maxon, Nate's half-brother, is on the warpath, committed and capable of killing everything and everyone Nate loves and holds dear. But?Are they truly brothers? Was that a lie?In the obsidian Temple of Reverie, Nate will face a choice: vengeance or virtue, power or principle, history or future, hate or love?Despair or Hope.The caverns of Hell will scream, the Rivers of the Dead will boil, and the Dark Horse will hike up a mountain of skulls to lead the Dread Four into battle. The crimson storms will rage as he hunts down his foe across the pages of history.Let us hope that not all will be abandoned in Nate Temple's conquest for vengeance?Let us hope that the last flicker of light in the Horseman's eyes does not die and plunge the world into the abyss before the true battle begins. The drums of the Omega War will sound like the beating heart of an awoken giant, and it will be impossible for anyone to ignore.