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Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. - Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place - Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts - Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner
Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Models to Applications provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of renewable energy forecasting technology and its applications. After an introduction to the principles of meteorology and renewable energy generation, groups of chapters address forecasting models, very short-term forecasting, forecasting of extremes, and longer term forecasting. The final part of the book focuses on important applications of forecasting for power system management and in energy markets. Due to shrinking fossil fuel reserves and concerns about climate change, renewable energy holds an increasing share of the energy mix. Solar, wind, wave, and hydro energy are dependent on highly variable weather conditions, so their increased penetration will lead to strong fluctuations in the power injected into the electricity grid, which needs to be managed. Reliable, high quality forecasts of renewable power generation are therefore essential for the smooth integration of large amounts of solar, wind, wave, and hydropower into the grid as well as for the profitability and effectiveness of such renewable energy projects. - Offers comprehensive coverage of wind, solar, wave, and hydropower forecasting in one convenient volume - Addresses a topic that is growing in importance, given the increasing penetration of renewable energy in many countries - Reviews state-of-the-science techniques for renewable energy forecasting - Contains chapters on operational applications
Modern power systems are affected by many sources of uncertainty, driven by the spread of renewable generation, by the development of liberalized energy market systems and by the intrinsic random behavior of the final energy customers. Forecasting is, therefore, a crucial task in planning and managing modern power systems at any level: from transmission to distribution networks, and in also the new context of smart grids. Recent trends suggest the suitability of ensemble approaches in order to increase the versatility and robustness of forecasting systems. Stacking, boosting, and bagging techniques have recently started to attract the interest of power system practitioners. This book addresses the development of new, advanced, ensemble forecasting methods applied to power systems, collecting recent contributions to the development of accurate forecasts of energy-related variables by some of the most qualified experts in energy forecasting. Typical areas of research (renewable energy forecasting, load forecasting, energy price forecasting) are investigated, with relevant applications to the use of forecasts in energy management systems.
This thesis describes performance measures and ensemble architectures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts using the application example of wind power forecasting and proposes a novel scheme for the situation-dependent aggregation of forecasting models. For performance measures, error scores for deterministic as well as probabilistic forecasts are compared, and their characteristics are shown in detail. For the evaluation of deterministic forecasts, a categorization by basic error measure and normalization technique is introduced that simplifies the process of choosing an appropriate error measure for certain forecasting tasks. Furthermore, a scheme for the common evaluation of different forms of probabilistic forecasts is proposed. Based on the analysis of the error scores, a novel hierarchical aggregation technique for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting models is proposed that dynamically weights individual forecasts using multiple weighting factors such as weather situation and lead time dependent weighting. In the experimental evaluation it is shown that the forecasting quality of the proposed technique is able to outperform other state of the art forecasting models and ensembles.
This thesis describes performance measures and ensemble architectures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts using the application example of wind power forecasting and proposes a novel scheme for the situation-dependent aggregation of forecasting models. For performance measures, error scores for deterministic as well as probabilistic forecasts are compared, and their characteristics are shown in detail. For the evaluation of deterministic forecasts, a categorization by basic error measure and normalization technique is introduced that simplifies the process of choosing an appropriate error measure for certain forecasting tasks. Furthermore, a scheme for the common evaluation of different forms of probabilistic forecasts is proposed. Based on the analysis of the error scores, a novel hierarchical aggregation technique for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting models is proposed that dynamically weights individual forecasts using multiple weighting factors such as weather situation and lead time dependent weighting. In the experimental evaluation it is shown that the forecasting quality of the proposed technique is able to outperform other state of the art forecasting models and ensembles.
This book describes computational problems related to kernel density estimation (KDE) – one of the most important and widely used data smoothing techniques. A very detailed description of novel FFT-based algorithms for both KDE computations and bandwidth selection are presented. The theory of KDE appears to have matured and is now well developed and understood. However, there is not much progress observed in terms of performance improvements. This book is an attempt to remedy this. The book primarily addresses researchers and advanced graduate or postgraduate students who are interested in KDE and its computational aspects. The book contains both some background and much more sophisticated material, hence also more experienced researchers in the KDE area may find it interesting. The presented material is richly illustrated with many numerical examples using both artificial and real datasets. Also, a number of practical applications related to KDE are presented.
Presenting a thorough overview of the theoretical foundations of non-parametric system identification for nonlinear block-oriented systems, this books shows that non-parametric regression can be successfully applied to system identification, and it highlights the achievements in doing so. With emphasis on Hammerstein, Wiener systems, and their multidimensional extensions, the authors show how to identify nonlinear subsystems and their characteristics when limited information exists. Algorithms using trigonometric, Legendre, Laguerre, and Hermite series are investigated, and the kernel algorithm, its semirecursive versions, and fully recursive modifications are covered. The theories of modern non-parametric regression, approximation, and orthogonal expansions, along with new approaches to system identification (including semiparametric identification), are provided. Detailed information about all tools used is provided in the appendices. This book is for researchers and practitioners in systems theory, signal processing, and communications and will appeal to researchers in fields like mechanics, economics, and biology, where experimental data are used to obtain models of systems.
The author has attempted to present a book that provides a non-technical introduction into the area of non-parametric density and regression function estimation. The application of these methods is discussed in terms of the S computing environment. Smoothing in high dimensions faces the problem of data sparseness. A principal feature of smoothing, the averaging of data points in a prescribed neighborhood, is not really practicable in dimensions greater than three if we have just one hundred data points. Additive models provide a way out of this dilemma; but, for their interactiveness and recursiveness, they require highly effective algorithms. For this purpose, the method of WARPing (Weighted Averaging using Rounded Points) is described in great detail.
This book includes the original, peer-reviewed research papers from the 10th Frontier Academic Forum of Electrical Engineering (FAFEE 2022), held in Xi’an, China, in August 2022. It gathers the latest research, innovations, and applications in the fields of Electrical Engineering. The topics it covers include electrical materials and equipment, electrical energy storage and device, power electronics and drives, new energy electric power system equipment, IntelliSense and intelligent equipment, biological electromagnetism and its applications, and insulation and discharge computation for power equipment. Given its scope, the book benefits all researchers, engineers, and graduate students who want to learn about cutting-edge advances in Electrical Engineering.