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This unique volume consists of studies on medium-run macroeconomics that deal with aggregate economic issues that do not easily fit into either short-run business cycles or long-term growth. This research area has emerged over last decade as a new and distinct field, and needs further explorations.The book includes theoretical as well as empirical studies that cover topics related to medium-run phenomena, such as ‘growth and fluctuations’, ‘wages and unemployment’, ‘financial instabilities’, ‘ firm size distributions and unbalanced growth’, ‘income inequality’, etc.. Every chapter includes new approach or new findings and will be invaluable to developments in this emerging area of research.
This book clarifies the mechanism of widening income inequality and declining labor share in macroeconomics, growth, technology, and the labor market, and provides policy implications. The volume covers three research themes: the influence of structural change, the advancement of artificial intelligence, and the phenomena of market concentration on inequalities and labor share dynamics in theory and empirics. The wide array of theoretical topics in this book includes the implications of unbalanced growth, economy-wide elasticity of substitution between capital and labor, relatively rising service sectors, superstar firm phenomena, automation, the heterogeneity of capital, increasing returns to scale, and the information and financial service sectors on inequalities and labor share decline. These analyses are based on multifactor, multisector general equilibrium, the goods market, and the labor market’s imperfectly competitive framework. In addition, the book covers the relevant empirical data analyses that involve top wealth dynamics in the U.S. Forbes 400, the effect of deepening ICT capital on the labor share in major Japanese industries, and the emergence of increasing returns to scale in the Japanese information and financial sectors.
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill premium associated with technical change and globalization, weakening protection for labor, and lack of financial inclusion in developing countries. We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the top 20 percent results in lower growth—that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down. This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class. To tackle inequality, financial inclusion is imperative in emerging and developing countries while in advanced economies, policies should focus on raising human capital and skills and making tax systems more progressive.
The 20th NBER Macroeconomics Annual, covering questions at the cutting edge of macroeconomics that are central to current policy debates.
This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
Even minute increases in a country's growth rate can result in dramatic changes in living standards over just one generation. The benefits of growth, however, may not be shared equally. Some may gain less than others, and a fraction of the population may actually be disadvantaged. Recent economic research has found both positive and negative relationships between growth and inequality across nations. The questions raised by these results include: What is the impact on inequality of policies designed to foster growth? Does inequality by itself facilitate or detract from economic growth, and does it amplify or diminish policy effectiveness? This book provides a forum for economists to examine the theoretical, empirical, and policy issues involved in the relationship between growth and inequality. The aim is to develop a framework for determining the role of public policy in enhancing both growth and equality. The diverse range of topics, examined in both developed and developing countries, includes natural resources, taxation, fertility, redistribution, technological change, transition, labor markets, and education. A theme common to all the essays is the importance of education in reducing inequality and increasing growth.
Productivity, Technology and Economic Growth presents a selection of recent research advances on long term economic growth. While the contributions stem from both economic history, macro- and microeconomics and the economics of innovation, all papers depart from a common viewpoint: the key factor behind long term growth is productivity, and the latter is primarily driven by technological change. Most contributions show implicitly or explicitly that technological change is at least partly dependent on growth itself. Furthermore, technology appears to interact strongly with investment in physical and human capital as well as with changes in historical, political and institutional settings. Together these papers are an up-to-date account of the remarkable convergence in theoretical and empirical work on productivity and growth over the past decades. The first part deals with the characteristics of growth regimes over longer periods, ranging from 20 years to two centuries. The next four chapters study the determinants of productivity growth and, in some cases, productivity slowdown during the last quarter of the twentieth century. The final five chapters focus on the role of technology and innovation as the key determinants of growth. Productivity, Technology and Economic Growth is, therefore, a welcome collection for academic scholars and graduate students in economics, history and related social sciences as well as for policy makers.
This book develops new, original methods of welfare comparison and comparative dynamics between distinct and discretely positioned (rather than continuously related) socioeconomic situations. These methods are not only realistic but also extremely relevant to serious economic problems. Using them, the book sheds illuminating new light on the theoretical analysis of Keynesian economics and other important issues of political economy. For instance, it shows that the principle of effective demand applies exactly as Keynes put it to the unemployment equilibrium in the short run. It also shows that the equilibrium may change along the expansion path as the government chooses to vary its expenditure to maximize national welfare. The same methods are effectively employed theoretically to investigate modern trade policy issues such as gains from trade, the theory of tariffs, free trade agreements, and the role of the WTO. Those methods are also used to study the welfare and efficiency of various socioeconomic situations.