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This book examines the theory and global evidence on structural transformation along with stylised facts and implications using, among others, a dynamic panel model, for South Asia. The characteristics of the structural transformation process in Bangladesh bring out the relevance of a comprehensive and inclusive South Asian ‘brand’ in view of the challenges of large population size, high burden of poverty, rising inequalities and its compulsion to achieve rapid and sustained inclusive development. The analysis highlights several distinct characteristics of Bangladesh’s structural transformation including changes in value added, trade, employment, productivity, formal-informal jobs, and opportunities for low-skilled workers. The book suggests that the manufacturing sector could not create the required number of jobs and generate rapid absolute and relative productivity gains in the Bangladesh economy. Although the services sector has largely led output and employment growth, services subsectors with strong labour absorptive capacity have low average productivity. Hence, growth-enhancing structural transformation led by these subsectors is likely to be less dynamic than required for rapid employment-creating growth in the economy. The book’s analysis on COVID-19 and cyclone Amphan shows that an integrated disaster and development paradigm is needed for Bangladesh. An inclusive and health and well-being focused structural transformation presents the pathway to advance the people-centred approach to development in Bangladesh through both vulnerability reduction and investments in sustainable development that would offset both known and unknown disaster threats. The key for Bangladesh is to skillfully manage the ‘developer’s dilemma’ of achieving both structural transformation in terms of large productivity gains and inclusive growth for reducing poverty and rising inequalities. This book is relevant to students, academicians and development practitioners and others interested in contemporary development.
Simon Kuznets’ views about the inverted-U relationship between inequality and development and the process of structural transformation have long been under the lens of researchers. Over the last 20 years, immense potential for growth in Asia has been facilitated by structural transformation. However, it remains undecided whether the contribution of structural transformation will stay as a crucial factor in determining potential productivity growth and income distribution. This book brings together novel conceptual frameworks and empirical evidence from country case studies on topics related to structural transformation, globalization, and income inequality.
This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO licence. It is free to read at Oxford Scholarship Online and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations. Developing countries seek economic development which is broad-based or inclusive in the sense that it raises the income of all, especially the poor. Yet this is at odds with Simon Kuznets' hypothesis that economic development tends to put upward pressure on income inequality, at least initially and in the absence of countervailing policies. The Developer's Dilemma explores this 'Kuznetsian tension' between structural transformation and income inequality. The book asks: what are the varieties of structural transformation that have been experienced in developing countries? What inequality dynamics are associated with each variety of structural transformation? And what policies have been utilized to manage trade-offs between structural transformation, income inequality, and inclusive growth? Across nine country cases written by academics across the Global South, this book answers these questions using a comparative case study approach with a common analytical framework and a set of common datasets. The intended intellectual contribution of the book is to provide a comparative analysis of the relationship between structural transformation, income inequality, and inclusive growth; to do so empirically at a regional and national level, and to draw conclusions about the varieties of structural transformation, their inequality dynamics, and the policies that have been employed to mediate the developer's dilemma.
Essays exploring the relationship between economic growth and inequality and the implications for policy makers.
We estimate a unified measure of inclusive growth for emerging markets by integrating their economic growth performance and income distribution outcomes, using data over three decades. Country distributions are calibrated by combining PPP GDP per capita and income distribution from survey data. We apply the microeconomic concept of a social mobility function at the macroeconomic level to measure inclusive growth that is closer to the absolute definition of pro-poor growth. This dynamic measure permits us to focus on inequality as well as distinguish between countries where per capita income growth was the same for the top and the bottom of the income pyramid, by accounting for the pace of growth. Our results indicate that macroeconomic stability, human capital, and structural changes are foundations for achieving inclusive growth. The role of globalization could also be positive with foreign direct investment and trade openess fostering greater inclusiveness, while financial deepening and technological change have no discernible effect.
Is there a tradeoff between raising growth and reducing inequality and poverty? This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the complex links between growth, inequality, and poverty, with causation going in both directions. The evidence suggests that growth can be effective in reducing poverty, but its impact on inequality is ambiguous and depends on the underlying sources of growth. The impact of poverty and inequality on growth is likewise ambiguous, as several channels mediate the relationship. But most plausible mechanisms suggest that poverty and inequality reduce growth, at least in the long run. Policies play a role in shaping these relationships and those designed to improve equality of opportunity can simultaneously improve inclusiveness and growth.
This book evaluates Bangladesh’s impressive economic and social progress, more often referred to as a ‘development surprise’. In doing so, the book examines the gap in existing explanations of Bangladesh’s development and then offers an empirically informed analysis of a range of distinctive factors, policies, and actions that have individually and collectively contributed to the progress of Bangladesh. In an inclusive way, the book covers the developmental role, relation, and impact of poverty reduction, access to finance, progress in education and social empowerment, reduction in the climatic vulnerability, and evolving sectoral growth activities in the agriculture, garments, and light industries. It also takes into account the important role of the government and NGOs in the development process, identifies bottlenecks and challenges to Bangladesh’s future development path and suggests measures to overcome them. By providing an inclusive narrative to theorize Bangladesh’s development, which is still missing in the public discourse, this book posits that Bangladesh per se can offer a development model to other developing countries.
The result of two years work by 19 experienced policymakers and two Nobel prize-winning economists, 'The Growth Report' is the most complete analysis to date of the ingredients which, if used in the right country-specific recipe, can deliver growth and help lift populations out of poverty.
Textiles and textile products dominate Bangladesh’s exports and participation in global value chains. However, such concentration poses risks to the economy. This report highlights that diversification into other sectors will be important to promote export-led growth. It explores how Bangladesh can build on its recent economic success by unlocking productivity gains from technology adoption, narrowing the digital divide, and expanding participation in global value chains. It identifies high-potential industries with deeper domestic linkages that offer opportunities to broaden the base of economic growth.
When are developing countries able to initiate periods of rapid growth and why have so few been able to sustain growth over decades? This book provides a novel conceptual framework built from a political economy of business-government relations and applies it to nine countries across Africa and Asia, drawing actionable policy recommendations.