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This paper explores these issues for Ethiopia utilizing an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM). We present the results of four alternative investment scenarios -- faster investment in i) cities; ii) crop agriculture; iii) the rural non-farm sector and agro-industry; and iv) livestock. The simulations suggest that investments in cities generate faster economic growth and structural transformation. However, given the large share of the population with incomes linked to agriculture and the rural economy, investments in the rural economy are likely to continue to be more pro-poor than urban public investments through the mid-2020s. After the mid-2020s, investments in cities become more pro-poor. In short, though rapid economic growth and structural transformation have diminished the relative importance of the agricultural sector in Ethiopia’s economy, continued public investments in agriculture and the broader agri-food system remain crucial for equity and poverty alleviation in Ethiopia, as well as for reducing food import dependency.
Economic development transforms an economy from one that is largely agricultural to one that is largely manufacturing and services. Since agriculture currently dominates Ethiopia's economy and employment, however, there is an issue as to what its role should be in getting from here to there. In the normal process of economic growth, non-agricultural sectors grow more rapidly than the agricultural sector. The slower growth of agriculture, its relative decline, concern about the difficulty of modernizing agriculture and pessimism about the potentials for technological change in agriculture suggest to some that agriculture should not be given priority for scarce resources in the interests of rapid overall growth. There is substantial evidence, however, that raising agricultural productivity is possible and that agricultural growth plays a key role in economic growth, particularly in low income countries. Moreover, the Government of Ethiopia is committed to rapid growth of agriculture as a means of accelerating the economic transformation and reducing poverty. This paper examines the implications of this commitment to both growth and reduction in poverty, analyzes the progress underway, and diagnoses the critical elements of change in policy required to reach the objectives. Combining a review of experiences of other developing countries with an analysis of growth multipliers for Ethiopia, the paper argues that a high rate of agricultural growth has far-reaching positive implications for increasing employment and accelerating poverty reduction. High agricultural growth also helps avoid the creation of megacities with large slum populations. In order to achieve this rapid agricultural growth with positive economy-wide linkages, however, it is necessary to engage "middle farmers", large enough to adopt new technologies and produce significant marketed surpluses, but small and numerous enough to have spending patterns that drive a vibrant rural non-farm sector. Finally, public and private investments in road, electricity and telecommunications are also needed to reduce marketing costs and enable growth in rural market towns and secondary cities, and provide social services to rural people. Maintaining a growth rate in agricultural GDP of six percent would provide enough employment growth to contribute to rapid economic transformation of the economy and rapid decline in poverty. Given the low level of crop yields relative to those of other countries with comparable resources, and relative to best farmers and experiment stations, a high rate of growth in agricultural productivity appears to be feasible. Current government policies are generally consistent with attaining continued high agricultural growth rates. However, reforms are needed to accelerate growth in seed production and distribution, and to improve fertilizer distribution and to accelerate growth in fertilizer use.
Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios presents a forward-looking analysis of Ethiopia’s agrifood system in the context of a rapidly changing economy. Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in the agrifood system, especially private sector investment. Many of the policies for a successful agricultural and rural development strategy for Ethiopia are relevant for other African countries, as well. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System should be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with economic development in Africa south of the Sahara.
Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios presents a forward-looking analysis of Ethiopia’s agrifood system in the context of a rapidly changing economy. Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in the agrifood system, especially private sector investment. Many of the policies for a successful agricultural and rural development strategy for Ethiopia are relevant for other African countries, as well. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System should be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with economic development in Africa south of the Sahara.
Amsalu Woldie Yalew attempts to address the direct and indirect economic effects of climate change, adaptation costs, and adaptation finance in developing countries with emphasis to Ethiopia using a static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model coupled with a regional module. The results show that the economy-wide effects of climate change are profound. Planned public adaptation that aims to fully neutralize climate change-induced agricultural productivity shocks may help to avert the aggregate effects but with residual effects. The results also indicate that structural change underpins climate-resilient development as it contributes to dampen the adverse consequences of climate change on aggregate GDP and households’ welfare.
This paper uses an economy-wide model to identify agricultural activities and value-chains in Ethiopia whose expansion would be most effective at generating economic growth, reducing national and rural poverty, creating jobs, and diversifying diets. Results indicate that expanding cereals production would continue to contribute positively to national pro-poor growth. However, the analysis suggests that there is no single value-chain that can achieve all policy objectives. Instead, a more balanced portfolio of valuechains would not only enhance agriculture’s future contribution to poverty reduction and economic growth, but also promote faster rural transformation and dietary diversification, both of which are needed to create job opportunities and improve nutrition outcomes over the longer-term. After considering alternative weighting schemes for competing policy goals, the final analysis suggests that vegetables and fruits/tree crops should be considered “priority” value-chains, because these are among the most effective at achieving multiple policy objectives. Other highly-ranked value-chains include oilseeds, tobacco/cotton/tea, and milk/dairy.
"This paper investigates whether the Ethiopian economy is undergoing a virtuous process of structural change. In particular, it assesses the relative contributions of within-sector and between-sector productivity to output per capita growth. Based on data disaggregated into eight sectors for the period 1996-2011, the analysis suggests that the structure of output has changed considerably - redominantly from agriculture to services - but changes in the composition of employment have lagged behind. Labor productivity growth has been strong across most sectors, albeit mainly driven by within-sector productivity improvements. Nonetheless, the pace of structural change is accelerating and its relative contribution to output growth is increasing"--Abstract.
This strategic paper discusses Ethiopia’s growth and transformation plan (GTP) for the periods 2010/2011 and 2014/2015. The Ethiopian government’s main development agenda has been poverty eradication. The government has designed, and is implementing, strategies, policies, and plans to guide and manage the overall development of the country accordingly. The GTP envisages that, besides maintaining a fast-growing economy, better results will be realized in all sectors. Implementation of the GTP requires mobilization of financial and human resources, especially for infrastructure development.
This book explores the role of agriculture in long-term economic growth. With a particular focus on Ethiopia, the role of the state in igniting agricultural growth and in sustaining economic growth is highlighted as essential for low-income countries. Taking ideas from both economic history and development economics, the ability of Ethiopia and the rest of Africa to sustain recent rapid growth into something that can tackle the development agenda is discussed, alongside policy suggestions. This book overall presents an optimistic account of Africa and its economic prospects. It will be relevant to students and researchers interested in economic development and agricultural economics. This is an open access book.
A joint FAO and World Bank study which shows how the farming systems approach can be used to identify priorities for the reduction of hunger and poverty in the main farming systems of the six major developing regions of the world.