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Volume 1 of 'The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets,' — Framework, is premised on the belief that markets can be understood only by dropping the assumptions of rationality and efficient markets in their extreme forms, and showing that markets still have an inherent order and inherent logic. But that order results primarily from the 'predictable irrationality' of investors, as well as from people's uncoordinated attempts to profit. The market patterns that result do not rely on rationality or efficiency.A framework is developed for understanding financial markets using a combination of psychology, statistics, game and gambling analysis, market history and the author's experience. It expresses analytically how professional investors and traders think about markets — as games in which other participants employ inferior, partially predictable strategies. Those strategies' interactions can be toxic and lead to booms, bubbles, busts and crashes, or can be less dramatic, leading to various patterns that are mistakenly called 'market inefficiencies' and 'stylized facts.'A logical case is constructed, starting from two foundations, the psychology of human decision making and the 'Fundamental Laws of Gambling.' Applying the Fundamental Laws to trading leads to the idea of 'gambling rationality' (grationality), replacing the efficient market's concept of 'rationality.' By classifying things that are likely to have semi-predictable price impacts (price 'distorters'), one can identify, explore through data analysis, and create winning trading ideas and systems. A structured way of doing all this is proposed: the six-step 'Strategic Analysis of Market Method.' Examples are given in this and Volume 2.Volume 2 of 'The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets' — Trading System Analytics, continues the development of Volume 1 by introducing tools and techniques for developing trading systems and by illustrating them using real markets. The difference between these two Volumes and the rest of the literature is its rigor. It describes trading as a form of gambling that when properly executed, is quite logical, and is well known to professional gamblers and analytical traders.But even those elites might be surprised at the extent to which quantitative methods have been justified and applied, including a life cycle theory of trading systems. Apart from a few sections that develop background material, Volume 2 creates from scratch a trading system for Eurodollar futures using principles of the Strategic Analysis of Markets Method (SAMM), a principled, step-by-step approach to developing profitable trading systems. It has an entire Chapter on mechanical methods for testing and improvement of trading systems, which transcends the rather unstructured and unsatisfactory 'backtesting' literature. It presents a breakout trend following system developed using factor models. It also presents a specific pairs trading system, and discusses its life cycle from an early, highly profitable period to its eventual demise. Recent developments in momentum trading and suggestions on improvements are also discussed.
The MOST ADVANCED Harmonic Trading Techniques Ever Published--by Their CREATOR, Scott Carney! Now, in Harmonic Trading: Volume 2, Carney takes a quantum leap forward, introducing new strategies, patterns, and methods that make Harmonic Trading an even more powerful tool for trading the financial markets. For the first time, he reveals how to utilize harmonic impulse waves and introduces measurement techniques that identify market turning points even more accurately. Finally, he demonstrates how to integrate the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) with advanced Harmonic Trading techniques to separate minor “reactive” moves from major opportunities.
The past twenty years have seen an extraordinary growth in the use of quantitative methods in financial markets. Finance professionals now routinely use sophisticated statistical techniques in portfolio management, proprietary trading, risk management, financial consulting, and securities regulation. This graduate-level textbook is intended for PhD students, advanced MBA students, and industry professionals interested in the econometrics of financial modeling. The book covers the entire spectrum of empirical finance, including: the predictability of asset returns, tests of the Random Walk Hypothesis, the microstructure of securities markets, event analysis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the term structure of interest rates, dynamic models of economic equilibrium, and nonlinear financial models such as ARCH, neural networks, statistical fractals, and chaos theory. Each chapter develops statistical techniques within the context of a particular financial application. This exciting new text contains a unique and accessible combination of theory and practice, bringing state-of-the-art statistical techniques to the forefront of financial applications. Each chapter also includes a discussion of recent empirical evidence, for example, the rejection of the Random Walk Hypothesis, as well as problems designed to help readers incorporate what they have read into their own applications.
Volume 2 of "The Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets"--Trading System Analytics, continues the development of Volume 1 by introducing tools and techniques for developing trading systems and by illustrating them using real markets. The difference between these two Volumes and the rest of the literature is its rigor. It describes trading as a form of gambling that when properly executed, is quite logical, and is well known to professional gamblers and analytical traders. But even those elites might be surprised at the extent to which quantitative methods have been justified and applied, including a life cycle theory of trading systems. Apart from a few sections that develop background material, Volume 2 creates from scratch a trading system for Eurodollar futures using principles of the Strategic Analysis of Markets Method (SAMM), a principled, step-by-step approach to developing profitable trading systems. It has an entire Chapter on mechanical methods for testing and improvement of trading systems, which transcends the rather unstructured and unsatisfactory "backtesting" literature. It presents a breakout trend following system developed using factor models. It also presents a specific pairs trading system, and discusses its life cycle from an early, highly profitable period to its eventual demise. Recent developments in momentum trading and suggestions on improvements are also discussed."--Publisher's website.
Here in the UK we have a product called Marmite. It is a deeply divisive food, which you either love or hate. Those who love it, cannot understand how anyone could live without it - and of course, the opposite is true for those who hate it!This same sentiment could be applied to volume as a trading indicator. In other words, you are likely to fall into one of two camps. You either believe it works, or you don't. It really is that simple. There is no halfway house here!I make no bones about the fact that I believe I was lucky in starting my own trading journey using volume. To me it just made sense, and the logic of what it revealed was inescapable. And for me, the most powerful reason is very simple. Volume is a rare commodity in trading - a leading indicator. The second, and only other leading indicator, is price. Everything else is lagged.As traders, investors or speculators, all we are trying to do is to forecast where the market is heading next. Is there any better way than to use the only two leading indicators we have at our disposal, namely volume and price? In isolation each tells us very little. After all, volume is just that, no more no less. A price is a price. However, combine these two forces together, and the result is a powerful analytical approach to forecasting market direction..However, as I say at the start of the book, there is nothing new in trading, and the analysis of volume has been around for over 100 years. After all, this is where the iconic traders started. People like Charles Dow, Jesse Livermore, Richard Wyckoff, and Richard Ney. All they had was the ticker tape, from which they read the price, and the number of shares traded. Volume price analysis, short and simple. The book has been written for traders who have never come across this methodology, and for those who have some knowledge, and perhaps wish to learn a little more. It is not revolutionary, or innovative, but just simple sound common sense, combined with logic.
John J. Murphy has updated his landmark bestseller Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets, to include all of the financial markets. This outstanding reference has already taught thousands of traders the concepts of technical analysis and their application in the futures and stock markets. Covering the latest developments in computer technology, technical tools, and indicators, the second edition features new material on candlestick charting, intermarket relationships, stocks and stock rotation, plus state-of-the-art examples and figures. From how to read charts to understanding indicators and the crucial role technical analysis plays in investing, readers gain a thorough and accessible overview of the field of technical analysis, with a special emphasis on futures markets. Revised and expanded for the demands of today's financial world, this book is essential reading for anyone interested in tracking and analyzing market behavior.
This book discusses many key topics in investment and risk management, the global economic situation and the shift in global investment strategies. It was largely written during the period of 2007-12, one of the most tumultuous times in global financial markets which called into question not only tenets of economic forecasting and also asset allocation and return strategies. It contains studies of how investors lose money in derivative markets, examples of those who did not and how these disasters could have been prevented. The authors draw some conclusions on the impact of the structural shifts currently underway in the global economy as well as how cyclical trends will affect these industries, the globe and key sectors. The authors zoom in on key growth areas, including emerging markets, their interlinkages and financial trends.The book also covers risk arbitrage and mean reversion strategies in financial and sports betting markets, plus incentives, volatility aspects, risk taking and investments strategies used by hedge funds and university endowments. Topics such as stock market crash predictions, asset liability planning models, various players in financial markets and the evaluation of the greatest investors are also discussed.The book presents tools and case studies of real applications for analyzing a wide variety of investment returns and better assessing the risks which many investors have preferred to ignore in the search of returns. Many security market regularities or anomalies are discussed including political party and January effects as is the process of building scenarios and using Kelly and fractional Kelly strategies to optimize returns.
"If there is a shortcut in trading, it is probably this book". Are you already an experienced trader? Do you want to learn advanced trading strategies? Are you stuck in your trading? Welcome to the book that is breaking schemes: WYCKOFF 2.0: STRUCTURES, VOLUME PROFILE AND ORDER FLOW. Ruben Villahermosa, Amazon bestseller and independent trader, reveals in this book a professional trading strategy based on two of the most powerful concepts of Technical Analysis: the best price analysis together with the best volume analysis. In this book you will learn... Advanced knowledge about how financial markets work: Dark Pools, OTC markets... Tools created by and for professional traders: Volume Profile. Order Flow. How the crossing of orders occurs and the problems of its analysis. Building step by step your own trading and investment strategy. The operating principles with Value Areas. How to implement Order Flow patterns for DayTrading. What is Wyckoff 2.0: the synergy between structure analysis and volume profiling. Evolved concepts of Position Management. Hurry up, BUY THE BOOK NOW and get ready to boost your results! Learn to do DAY TRADING like a professional Wyckoff 2.0 is the natural evolution of the Wyckoff Methodology. It is about bringing together two of the most powerful concepts of Technical Analysis: the best PRICE analysis together with the best VOLUME analysis. The only book written by and for experienced traders. For traders who want to make a quality leap in their trading through the study of professional volume analysis tools such as Volume Profile and Order Flow. In this book you will learn advanced knowledge about the functioning of the financial markets, that side B that very few know and that is tremendously important since it determines each and every one of the movements. Being aware of the existence of all this will give you a more objective and comprehensive perspective of what really happens in the market and provide you with a more critical point of view. Develop your own TRADING STRATEGY Having as a fundamental basis the perception of value that we will study with the auction theory, the context and the analytical tools offered by the Wyckoff methodology, as well as the analysis of levels and trading zones identified by Volume Profile, we will propose different trading strategies. In the third part we will approach the Volume Profile tool from an integral perspective. We will learn about its fundamentals, theory, composition, types and shapes of profiles; and we will present some of the most important uses we can make of it. This is undoubtedly one of the key sections of the book. Thanks to the operating principles of the volume profile you will be able to develop your own trading strategies. The best trading course at book cost In this book we will deepen in complex techniques of analysis of Supply and Demand by incorporating new tools based on the information provided by the volume data and that will be very useful, such as the Volume Profile and Order Flow.
If you read nothing else on strategy, read these definitive articles from Harvard Business Review. Defining--and executing--the best strategy for your company is fraught with challenge. Do you have the right strategy to lead your company into the future? HBR's 10 Must Reads on Strategy 2-Volume Collection provides enduring ideas and practical advice on how to accelerate your organization's strategy development and execution. Bringing together HBR's 10 Must Reads on Strategy, Vol. 1 and HBR's 10 Must Reads on Strategy, Vol. 2, this collection includes twenty articles selected by HBR's editors and features the indispensable article "What is Strategy?" by Michael E. Porter. From timeless classics to the latest game-changing ideas from thought leaders W. Chan Kim, Renee Mauborgne, Jim Collins, and more, HBR's 10 Must Reads on Strategy 2-Volume Collection will inspire you to: Distinguish your companies from your rivals Reinvent your business model to keep you on the competitive map Craft a vision for an uncertain future Create and capture new markets--and break free from overcrowded ones Clarify decision roles for faster decision making See the growing relevance of data analytics in your organization Transform your products and services into platforms Identify the signals of future disruption and take steps to avoid it HBR's 10 Must Reads paperback series is the definitive collection of books for new and experienced leaders alike. Leaders looking for the inspiration that big ideas provide, both to accelerate their own growth and that of their companies, should look no further. HBR's 10 Must Reads series focuses on the core topics that every ambitious manager needs to know: leadership, strategy, change, managing people, and managing yourself. Harvard Business Review has sorted through hundreds of articles and selected only the most essential reading on each topic. Each title includes timeless advice that will be relevant regardless of an ever‐changing business environment.