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Classical theories of monetary economics predict that real stock returns are negatively correlated with inflation when monetary policy is countercyclical. Previous empirical studies mostly focus on a small group of developed countries or a few countries with hyperinflation. In this paper, I examine the stock return-inflation relation under different monetary policy regimes and conditions using an expanded dataset of 71 economies. Empirical evidence suggests that the stock return-inflation relation is partially driven by monetary policy. If a country’s monetary authority conducts a more countercyclical monetary policy, the stock return-inflation relation becomes more negative. In addition, the results differ by monetary policy framework. In exchange rate anchor countries, stock markets do not respond to monetary policy cyclicality. In inflation targeting countries, stock markets react more strongly to inflation. A key contribution of this paper is to classify inflation targeters by their behaviors, and illustrate that behavior matters in shaping market perceptions: markets react to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality when central banks are able to control inflation within their target bands. In this case markets are sensitive to inflation dynamics when inflation is above the announced target bands. Finally, when monetary policy is constrained by the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB), a structural break is introduced and real stock returns no longer respond to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality.
The question of whether central banks should target stock prices so as to prevent bubbles and crashes from occurring has been hotly debated. This paper analyses this question using a behavioural macroeconomic model. This model generates bubbles and crashes. It analyses how 'leaning against the wind' strategies, which aim to reduce the volatility of stock prices, can help in reducing volatility of output and inflation. We find that such policies can be effective in reducing macroeconomic volatility, thereby improving the trade-off between output and inflation variability. The strength of this result, however, depends on the degree of credibility of the inflation-targeting regime. In the absence of such credibility, policies aiming at stabilising stock prices do not stabilise output and inflation.
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Wolfgang Drobetz provides empirical evidence on the time variation of expected stock returns over the stages of the business cycle.
This paper considers a new perspective on the relationship between stock prices and inflation, by estimating the common long-term trend in real stock prices, as reflected in the earning-price ratio, and both expected and realized inflation. We study the role of the transitory deviations from the common trend in the earning-price ratio and realized inflation for predicting stock market fluctuations. In particular, we find that these deviations exhibit substantial insample and out-of-sample forecasting abilities for both real stock returns and excess returns. Moreover, we find that this variable provides information about future stock returns at short and intermediate horizons that is not captured by other popular forecasting variables.
Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation brings together fourteen papers that show the importance of the interaction between tax rules and monetary policy. Based on theoretical and empirical research, these papers emphasize the importance of including explicit specifications of the tax system in such study.