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Can fundamentals account for the recent performance of the U.S. stock market? The price/earnings ratio is out of line with historical averages, and the dividend/price ratio has recently reached a historic low. These developments and record levels of inflows into mutual funds have led some to conclude that stock prices are above their fundamental levels. This paper assesses the recent rise in the stock market using a model for the equilibrium dividend/price ratio. While economic variables can account for most of the recent fall in the dividend/price ratio, mutual-fund inflows still have some marginal explanatory power.
Can fundamentals account for the recent performance of the U.S. stock market? The price/earnings ratio is out of line with historical averages, and the dividend/price ratio has recently reached a historic low. These developments and record levels of inflows into mutual funds have led some to conclude that stock prices are above their fundamental levels. This paper assesses the recent rise in the stock market using a model for the equilibrium dividend/price ratio. While economic variables can account for most of the recent fall in the dividend/price ratio, mutual-fund inflows still have some marginal explanatory power.
Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
This paper examines the efficiency of the Stock Exchange of Singapore and the relationship between the stock market and the overall economy. Using a wide range of methods for testing market efficiency, the paper establishes that the Singapore stock market is both “weakly” and “semi-strongly” efficient in asset-pricing terms but not “strongly” efficient. Granger causality tests based on the efficiency test results indicate that developments in the stock market appear to be systematically related to the overall economy in Singapore and can thus serve as a leading indicator of its intertemporal behavior.
Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
Dividends And Dividend Policy As part of the Robert W. Kolb Series in Finance, Dividends and Dividend Policy aims to be the essential guide to dividends and their impact on shareholder value. Issues concerning dividends and dividend policy have always posed challenges to both academics and professionals. While all the pieces to the dividend puzzle may not be in place yet, the information found here can help you gain a firm understanding of this dynamic discipline. Comprising twenty-eight chapters—contributed by both top academics and financial experts in the field—this well-rounded resource discusses everything from corporate dividend decisions to the role behavioral finance plays in dividend policy. Along the way, you'll gain valuable insights into the history, trends, and determinants of dividends and dividend policy, and discover the different approaches firms are taking when it comes to dividends. Whether you're a seasoned financial professional or just beginning your journey in the world of finance, having a firm understanding of the issues surrounding dividends and dividend policy is now more important than ever. With this book as your guide, you'll be prepared to make the most informed dividend-related decisions possible—even in the most challenging economic conditions. The Robert W. Kolb Series in Finance is an unparalleled source of information dedicated to the most important issues in modern finance. Each book focuses on a specific topic in the field of finance and contains contributed chapters from both respected academics and experienced financial professionals.
Corporate Payout Policy synthesizes the academic research on payout policy and explains "how much, when, and how". That is (i) the overall value of payouts over the life of the enterprise, (ii) the time profile of a firm's payouts across periods, and (iii) the form of those payouts. The authors conclude that today's theory does a good job of explaining the general features of corporate payout policies, but some important gaps remain. So while our emphasis is to clarify "what we know" about payout policy, the authors also identify a number of interesting unresolved questions for future research. Corporate Payout Policy discusses potential influences on corporate payout policy including managerial use of payouts to signal future earnings to outside investors, individuals' behavioral biases that lead to sentiment-based demands for distributions, the desire of large block stockholders to maintain corporate control, and personal tax incentives to defer payouts. The authors highlight four important "carry-away" points: the literature's focus on whether repurchases will (or should) drive out dividends is misplaced because it implicitly assumes that a single payout vehicle is optimal; extant empirical evidence is strongly incompatible with the notion that the primary purpose of dividends is to signal managers' views of future earnings to outside investors; over-confidence on the part of managers is potentially a first-order determinant of payout policy because it induces them to over-retain resources to invest in dubious projects and so behavioral biases may, in fact, turn out to be more important than agency costs in explaining why investors pressure firms to accelerate payouts; the influence of controlling stockholders on payout policy --- particularly in non-U.S. firms, where controlling stockholders are common --- is a promising area for future research. Corporate Payout Policy is required reading for both researchers and practitioners interested in understanding this central topic in corporate finance and governance.
Author Peter Stimes’s analysis of the investment process has long been inspired by some of the best minds in the world of finance, yet some of the ways in which he approaches this discipline are truly unique. In Equity Valuation, Risk, and Investment, Stimes shares his extensive expertise with you and reveals how practitioners can integrate and apply both the theory and quantitative analysis found in finance to the day-to-day decisions they must make with regard to important investment issues.
Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statistical evidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standard efficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popular opinion or psychology can play in price volatility. Why does the stock market crash from time to time? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly make surprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretive material for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature, responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Included is work authored jointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel. Market Volatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements for speculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis of speculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general. In studies of the October 1987 stock market crash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimed at collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in those models. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data and believes that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearing no relation to fundamental shocks.