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This book presents essential tools for modelling non-linear time series. The first part of the book describes the main standard tools of probability and statistics that directly apply to the time series context to obtain a wide range of modelling possibilities. Functional estimation and bootstrap are discussed, and stationarity is reviewed. The second part describes a number of tools from Gaussian chaos and proposes a tour of linear time series models. It goes on to address nonlinearity from polynomial or chaotic models for which explicit expansions are available, then turns to Markov and non-Markov linear models and discusses Bernoulli shifts time series models. Finally, the volume focuses on the limit theory, starting with the ergodic theorem, which is seen as the first step for statistics of time series. It defines the distributional range to obtain generic tools for limit theory under long or short-range dependences (LRD/SRD) and explains examples of LRD behaviours. More general techniques (central limit theorems) are described under SRD; mixing and weak dependence are also reviewed. In closing, it describes moment techniques together with their relations to cumulant sums as well as an application to kernel type estimation.The appendix reviews basic probability theory facts and discusses useful laws stemming from the Gaussian laws as well as the basic principles of probability, and is completed by R-scripts used for the figures. Richly illustrated with examples and simulations, the book is recommended for advanced master courses for mathematicians just entering the field of time series, and statisticians who want more mathematical insights into the background of non-linear time series.
This book presents essential tools for modelling non-linear time series. The first part of the book describes the main standard tools of probability and statistics that directly apply to the time series context to obtain a wide range of modelling possibilities. Functional estimation and bootstrap are discussed, and stationarity is reviewed. The second part describes a number of tools from Gaussian chaos and proposes a tour of linear time series models. It goes on to address nonlinearity from polynomial or chaotic models for which explicit expansions are available, then turns to Markov and non-Markov linear models and discusses Bernoulli shifts time series models. Finally, the volume focuses on the limit theory, starting with the ergodic theorem, which is seen as the first step for statistics of time series. It defines the distributional range to obtain generic tools for limit theory under long or short-range dependences (LRD/SRD) and explains examples of LRD behaviours. More general techniques (central limit theorems) are described under SRD; mixing and weak dependence are also reviewed. In closing, it describes moment techniques together with their relations to cumulant sums as well as an application to kernel type estimation.The appendix reviews basic probability theory facts and discusses useful laws stemming from the Gaussian laws as well as the basic principles of probability, and is completed by R-scripts used for the figures. Richly illustrated with examples and simulations, the book is recommended for advanced master courses for mathematicians just entering the field of time series, and statisticians who want more mathematical insights into the background of non-linear time series.
The object of the present work is a systematic statistical analysis of bilinear processes in the frequency domain. The first two chapters are devoted to the basic theory of nonlinear functions of stationary Gaussian processes, Hermite polynomials, cumulants and higher order spectra, multiple Wiener-Itô integrals and finally chaotic Wiener-Itô spectral representation of subordinated processes. There are two chapters for general nonlinear time series problems.
Stochastic Modeling: A Thorough Guide to Evaluate, Pre-Process, Model and Compare Time Series with MATLAB Software allows for new avenues in time series analysis and predictive modeling which summarize more than ten years of experience in the application of stochastic models in environmental problems. The book introduces a variety of different topics in time series in the modeling and prediction of complex environmental systems. Most importantly, all codes are user-friendly and readers will be able to use them for their cases. Users who may not be familiar with MATLAB software can also refer to the appendix. This book also guides the reader step-by-step to learn developed codes for time series modeling, provides required toolboxes, explains concepts, and applies different tools for different types of environmental time series problems. - Provides video tutorials on the use of codes - Includes a companion site with 3,000 lines of programming, 70 principal codes and 100 pseudo codes - Highlights multiple methods to Illustrate each problem
Three coherent parts form the material covered in this text, portions of which have not been widely covered in traditional textbooks. In this coverage the reader is quickly introduced to several different topics enriched with 175 exercises which focus on real-world problems. Exercises range from the classics of probability theory to more exotic research-oriented problems based on numerical simulations. Intended for graduate students in mathematics and applied sciences, the text provides the tools and training needed to write and use programs for research purposes. The first part of the text begins with a brief review of measure theory and revisits the main concepts of probability theory, from random variables to the standard limit theorems. The second part covers traditional material on stochastic processes, including martingales, discrete-time Markov chains, Poisson processes, and continuous-time Markov chains. The theory developed is illustrated by a variety of examples surrounding applications such as the gambler’s ruin chain, branching processes, symmetric random walks, and queueing systems. The third, more research-oriented part of the text, discusses special stochastic processes of interest in physics, biology, and sociology. Additional emphasis is placed on minimal models that have been used historically to develop new mathematical techniques in the field of stochastic processes: the logistic growth process, the Wright –Fisher model, Kingman’s coalescent, percolation models, the contact process, and the voter model. Further treatment of the material explains how these special processes are connected to each other from a modeling perspective as well as their simulation capabilities in C and MatlabTM.
This volume presents the latest advances and trends in stochastic models and related statistical procedures. Selected peer-reviewed contributions focus on statistical inference, quality control, change-point analysis and detection, empirical processes, time series analysis, survival analysis and reliability, statistics for stochastic processes, big data in technology and the sciences, statistical genetics, experiment design, and stochastic models in engineering. Stochastic models and related statistical procedures play an important part in furthering our understanding of the challenging problems currently arising in areas of application such as the natural sciences, information technology, engineering, image analysis, genetics, energy and finance, to name but a few. This collection arises from the 12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications, Wroclaw, Poland.
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling provides information pertinent to the standard concepts and methods of stochastic modeling. This book presents the rich diversity of applications of stochastic processes in the sciences. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of diverse types of stochastic models, which predicts a set of possible outcomes weighed by their likelihoods or probabilities. This text then provides exercises in the applications of simple stochastic analysis to appropriate problems. Other chapters consider the study of general functions of independent, identically distributed, nonnegative random variables representing the successive intervals between renewals. This book discusses as well the numerous examples of Markov branching processes that arise naturally in various scientific disciplines. The final chapter deals with queueing models, which aid the design process by predicting system performance. This book is a valuable resource for students of engineering and management science. Engineers will also find this book useful.
Geostatistics is expanding very fast: concept- and technique-wise. Keeping in view the importance of the subject, it was thought appropriate to bring out the second edition of this book. In this process, Chapter I has been expanded In Chapter 2, incorporating more details on sampling and sampling designs. a section on simulation has been introduced with emphasis on Monte-Carlo simulation with worked out examples. In Chapter 5, a procedure to compute variogram in the case of irregular grid has been outlined. Minor modifications have been made in all other chapters. A new chapter on Introduction to Advanced Geostatistics has been introduced with discussions on universal kriging, disjunctive kriging, conditional simulation and median polish kriging. Review Questions are given at the end of each chapter to facilitate a better understanding of the subject by the student/practitioner. The software codes are put in a CD for convenience of the students/practitoner of geostatistics. A few additions have been made in the bibliography making it more exhaustive. This contains references to the concepts and methods presented, in-depth treatment of related topics and possible extensions. My grateful thanks are due to Dr. B.S. Saini, Principal, Guru Nanak Engg. College, Hyderabad for very helpful support. I hope that this edition will be a welcome one.
With a focus on analyzing and modeling linear dynamic systems using statistical methods, Time Series Analysis formulates various linear models, discusses their theoretical characteristics, and explores the connections among stochastic dynamic models. Emphasizing the time domain description, the author presents theorems to highlight the most