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Complex mathematical and computational models are used in all areas of society and technology and yet model based science is increasingly contested or refuted, especially when models are applied to controversial themes in domains such as health, the environment or the economy. More stringent standards of proofs are demanded from model-based numbers, especially when these numbers represent potential financial losses, threats to human health or the state of the environment. Quantitative sensitivity analysis is generally agreed to be one such standard. Mathematical models are good at mapping assumptions into inferences. A modeller makes assumptions about laws pertaining to the system, about its status and a plethora of other, often arcane, system variables and internal model settings. To what extent can we rely on the model-based inference when most of these assumptions are fraught with uncertainties? Global Sensitivity Analysis offers an accessible treatment of such problems via quantitative sensitivity analysis, beginning with the first principles and guiding the reader through the full range of recommended practices with a rich set of solved exercises. The text explains the motivation for sensitivity analysis, reviews the required statistical concepts, and provides a guide to potential applications. The book: Provides a self-contained treatment of the subject, allowing readers to learn and practice global sensitivity analysis without further materials. Presents ways to frame the analysis, interpret its results, and avoid potential pitfalls. Features numerous exercises and solved problems to help illustrate the applications. Is authored by leading sensitivity analysis practitioners, combining a range of disciplinary backgrounds. Postgraduate students and practitioners in a wide range of subjects, including statistics, mathematics, engineering, physics, chemistry, environmental sciences, biology, toxicology, actuarial sciences, and econometrics will find much of use here. This book will prove equally valuable to engineers working on risk analysis and to financial analysts concerned with pricing and hedging.
Finite Element Analysis An updated and comprehensive review of the theoretical foundation of the finite element method The revised and updated second edition of Finite Element Analysis: Method, Verification, and Validation offers a comprehensive review of the theoretical foundations of the finite element method and highlights the fundamentals of solution verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification. Written by noted experts on the topic, the book covers the theoretical fundamentals as well as the algorithmic structure of the finite element method. The text contains numerous examples and helpful exercises that clearly illustrate the techniques and procedures needed for accurate estimation of the quantities of interest. In addition, the authors describe the technical requirements for the formulation and application of design rules. Designed as an accessible resource, the book has a companion website that contains a solutions manual, PowerPoint slides for instructors, and a link to finite element software. This important text: Offers a comprehensive review of the theoretical foundations of the finite element method Puts the focus on the fundamentals of solution verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification Presents the techniques and procedures of quality assurance in numerical solutions of mathematical problems Contains numerous examples and exercises Written for students in mechanical and civil engineering, analysts seeking professional certification, and applied mathematicians, Finite Element Analysis: Method, Verification, and Validation, Second Edition includes the tools, concepts, techniques, and procedures that help with an understanding of finite element analysis.
This book focuses on the statistical modeling of geophysical and environmental data using Bayesian latent Gaussian models. The structure of these models is described in a thorough introductory chapter, which explains how to construct prior densities for the model parameters, how to infer the parameters using Bayesian computation, and how to use the models to make predictions. The remaining six chapters focus on the application of Bayesian latent Gaussian models to real examples in glaciology, hydrology, engineering seismology, seismology, meteorology and climatology. These examples include: spatial predictions of surface mass balance; the estimation of Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise; the estimation of rating curves for the projection of water level to discharge; ground motion models for strong motion; spatial modeling of earthquake magnitudes; weather forecasting based on numerical model forecasts; and extreme value analysis of precipitation on a high-dimensional grid. The book is aimed at graduate students and experts in statistics, geophysics, environmental sciences, engineering, and related fields.
This three-part book provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to these challenging topics such as model calibration, parameter estimation, reliability assessment, and data collection design. Part 1 covers the classical inverse problem for parameter estimation in both deterministic and statistical frameworks, Part 2 is dedicated to system identification, hyperparameter estimation, and model dimension reduction, and Part 3 considers how to collect data and construct reliable models for prediction and decision-making. For the first time, topics such as multiscale inversion, stochastic field parameterization, level set method, machine learning, global sensitivity analysis, data assimilation, model uncertainty quantification, robust design, and goal-oriented modeling, are systematically described and summarized in a single book from the perspective of model inversion, and elucidated with numerical examples from environmental and water resources modeling. Readers of this book will not only learn basic concepts and methods for simple parameter estimation, but also get familiar with advanced methods for modeling complex systems. Algorithms for mathematical tools used in this book, such as numerical optimization, automatic differentiation, adaptive parameterization, hierarchical Bayesian, metamodeling, Markov chain Monte Carlo, are covered in details. This book can be used as a reference for graduate and upper level undergraduate students majoring in environmental engineering, hydrology, and geosciences. It also serves as an essential reference book for professionals such as petroleum engineers, mining engineers, chemists, mechanical engineers, biologists, biology and medical engineering, applied mathematicians, and others who perform mathematical modeling.
Financial modelling Theory, Implementation and Practice with MATLAB Source Jörg Kienitz and Daniel Wetterau Financial Modelling - Theory, Implementation and Practice with MATLAB Source is a unique combination of quantitative techniques, the application to financial problems and programming using Matlab. The book enables the reader to model, design and implement a wide range of financial models for derivatives pricing and asset allocation, providing practitioners with complete financial modelling workflow, from model choice, deriving prices and Greeks using (semi-) analytic and simulation techniques, and calibration even for exotic options. The book is split into three parts. The first part considers financial markets in general and looks at the complex models needed to handle observed structures, reviewing models based on diffusions including stochastic-local volatility models and (pure) jump processes. It shows the possible risk-neutral densities, implied volatility surfaces, option pricing and typical paths for a variety of models including SABR, Heston, Bates, Bates-Hull-White, Displaced-Heston, or stochastic volatility versions of Variance Gamma, respectively Normal Inverse Gaussian models and finally, multi-dimensional models. The stochastic-local-volatility Libor market model with time-dependent parameters is considered and as an application how to price and risk-manage CMS spread products is demonstrated. The second part of the book deals with numerical methods which enables the reader to use the models of the first part for pricing and risk management, covering methods based on direct integration and Fourier transforms, and detailing the implementation of the COS, CONV, Carr-Madan method or Fourier-Space-Time Stepping. This is applied to pricing of European, Bermudan and exotic options as well as the calculation of the Greeks. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is outlined and bridge sampling is discussed in a Gaussian setting and for Lévy processes. Computation of Greeks is covered using likelihood ratio methods and adjoint techniques. A chapter on state-of-the-art optimization algorithms rounds up the toolkit for applying advanced mathematical models to financial problems and the last chapter in this section of the book also serves as an introduction to model risk. The third part is devoted to the usage of Matlab, introducing the software package by describing the basic functions applied for financial engineering. The programming is approached from an object-oriented perspective with examples to propose a framework for calibration, hedging and the adjoint method for calculating Greeks in a Libor market model. Source code used for producing the results and analysing the models is provided on the author's dedicated website, http://www.mathworks.de/matlabcentral/fileexchange/authors/246981.
The limited coverage of data analysis and statistics offered in most undergraduate and graduate analytical chemistry courses is usually focused on practical aspects of univariate methods. Drawing in real-world examples, Practical Guide to Chemometrics, Second Edition offers an accessible introduction to application-oriented multivariate meth
This book constitutes an up-to-date account of principles, methods, and tools for mathematical and statistical modelling in a wide range of research fields, including medicine, health sciences, biology, environmental science, engineering, physics, chemistry, computation, finance, economics, and social sciences. It presents original solutions to real-world problems, emphasizes the coordinated development of theories and applications, and promotes interdisciplinary collaboration among mathematicians, statisticians, and researchers in other disciplines. Based on a highly successful meeting, the International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modeling and Computational Science, AMMCS 2019, held from August 18 to 23, 2019, on the main campus of Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Canada, the contributions are the results of submissions from the conference participants. They provide readers with a broader view of the methods, ideas and tools used in mathematical, statistical and computational sciences.
This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.
Designed to serve as the first point of reference on the subject, Comprehensive Chemometrics presents an integrated summary of the present state of chemical and biochemical data analysis and manipulation. The work covers all major areas ranging from statistics to data acquisition, analysis, and applications. This major reference work provides broad-ranging, validated summaries of the major topics in chemometrics—with chapter introductions and advanced reviews for each area. The level of material is appropriate for graduate students as well as active researchers seeking a ready reference on obtaining and analyzing scientific data. Features the contributions of leading experts from 21 countries, under the guidance of the Editors-in-Chief and a team of specialist Section Editors: L. Buydens; D. Coomans; P. Van Espen; A. De Juan; J.H. Kalivas; B.K. Lavine; R. Leardi; R. Phan-Tan-Luu; L.A. Sarabia; and J. Trygg Examines the merits and limitations of each technique through practical examples and extensive visuals: 368 tables and more than 1,300 illustrations (750 in full color) Integrates coverage of chemical and biological methods, allowing readers to consider and test a range of techniques Consists of 2,200 pages and more than 90 review articles, making it the most comprehensive work of its kind Offers print and online purchase options, the latter of which delivers flexibility, accessibility, and usability through the search tools and other productivity-enhancing features of ScienceDirect
Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters covers all major aspects of catastrophe risk modeling, from hazards through to financial analysis. It explores relevant new science in risk modeling, indirect losses, assessment of impact and consequences to insurance losses, and current changes in risk modeling practice, along with case studies. It also provides further insight into the shortcomings of current models and examines model risk and ideas to diversify risk assessment. Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters instructs readers on how to assess, price and then hedge the losses from natural and manmade catastrophes. This book reviews current model development and science and explains recent changes in the catastrophe modeling space, including new initiatives covering uncertainty and big data in the assessment of risk for insurance pricing and portfolio management. Edited by a leading expert in both hazards and risk, this book is authored by a global panel including major modeling vendors, modeling consulting firms, and well-known catastrophe modeling scientists. Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters provides important insight into how models are used to price and manage risk. - Includes high profile case studies such as the Newcastle earthquake, Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Katrina - Provides crucial information on new ideas and platforms that will help address the new demands for risk management and catastrophe risk reporting - Presents the theory and practice needed to know how models are created and what is and what is not important in the modeling process - Covers relevant new science in risk modeling, indirect losses, assessment of impact and consequences to insurance losses, and current changes in risk modeling practice, along with case studies