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Comprises the proceedings of the AMS-IMS-SIAM Summer Research Conference on Statistical Inference from Stochastic Processes, held at Cornell University in August 1987. This book provides students and researchers with a familiarity with the foundations of inference from stochastic processes and intends to provide a knowledge of the developments.
Introductory examples of stochastic models; Special models; General theory; Further approaches.
The first book in inference for stochastic processes from a statistical, rather than a probabilistic, perspective. It provides a systematic exposition of theoretical results from over ten years of mathematical literature and presents, for the first time in book form, many new techniques and approaches.
This is the first book designed to introduce Bayesian inference procedures for stochastic processes. There are clear advantages to the Bayesian approach (including the optimal use of prior information). Initially, the book begins with a brief review of Bayesian inference and uses many examples relevant to the analysis of stochastic processes, including the four major types, namely those with discrete time and discrete state space and continuous time and continuous state space. The elements necessary to understanding stochastic processes are then introduced, followed by chapters devoted to the Bayesian analysis of such processes. It is important that a chapter devoted to the fundamental concepts in stochastic processes is included. Bayesian inference (estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction) for discrete time Markov chains, for Markov jump processes, for normal processes (e.g. Brownian motion and the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process), for traditional time series, and, lastly, for point and spatial processes are described in detail. Heavy emphasis is placed on many examples taken from biology and other scientific disciplines. In order analyses of stochastic processes, it will use R and WinBUGS. Features: Uses the Bayesian approach to make statistical Inferences about stochastic processes The R package is used to simulate realizations from different types of processes Based on realizations from stochastic processes, the WinBUGS package will provide the Bayesian analysis (estimation, testing hypotheses, and prediction) for the unknown parameters of stochastic processes To illustrate the Bayesian inference, many examples taken from biology, economics, and astronomy will reinforce the basic concepts of the subject A practical approach is implemented by considering realistic examples of interest to the scientific community WinBUGS and R code are provided in the text, allowing the reader to easily verify the results of the inferential procedures found in the many examples of the book Readers with a good background in two areas, probability theory and statistical inference, should be able to master the essential ideas of this book.
The YUIMA package is the first comprehensive R framework based on S4 classes and methods which allows for the simulation of stochastic differential equations driven by Wiener process, Lévy processes or fractional Brownian motion, as well as CARMA, COGARCH, and Point processes. The package performs various central statistical analyses such as quasi maximum likelihood estimation, adaptive Bayes estimation, structural change point analysis, hypotheses testing, asynchronous covariance estimation, lead-lag estimation, LASSO model selection, and so on. YUIMA also supports stochastic numerical analysis by fast computation of the expected value of functionals of stochastic processes through automatic asymptotic expansion by means of the Malliavin calculus. All models can be multidimensional, multiparametric or non parametric.The book explains briefly the underlying theory for simulation and inference of several classes of stochastic processes and then presents both simulation experiments and applications to real data. Although these processes have been originally proposed in physics and more recently in finance, they are becoming popular also in biology due to the fact the time course experimental data are now available. The YUIMA package, available on CRAN, can be freely downloaded and this companion book will make the user able to start his or her analysis from the first page.
Decision making in all spheres of activity involves uncertainty. If rational decisions have to be made, they have to be based on the past observations of the phenomenon in question. Data collection, model building and inference from the data collected, validation of the model and refinement of the model are the key steps or building blocks involved in any rational decision making process. Stochastic processes are widely used for model building in the social, physical, engineering, and life sciences as well as in financial economics. Statistical inference for stochastic processes is of great importance from the theoretical as well as from applications point of view in model building. During the past twenty years, there has been a large amount of progress in the study of inferential aspects for continuous as well as discrete time stochastic processes. Diffusion type processes are a large class of continuous time processes which are widely used for stochastic modelling. the book aims to bring together several methods of estimation of parameters involved in such processes when the process is observed continuously over a period of time or when sampled data is available as generally feasible.
Praise for the First Edition ". . . an excellent textbook . . . well organized and neatly written." —Mathematical Reviews ". . . amazingly interesting . . ." —Technometrics Thoroughly updated to showcase the interrelationships between probability, statistics, and stochastic processes, Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes, Second Edition prepares readers to collect, analyze, and characterize data in their chosen fields. Beginning with three chapters that develop probability theory and introduce the axioms of probability, random variables, and joint distributions, the book goes on to present limit theorems and simulation. The authors combine a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with an intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic. Including more than 400 examples that help illustrate concepts and theory, the Second Edition features new material on statistical inference and a wealth of newly added topics, including: Consistency of point estimators Large sample theory Bootstrap simulation Multiple hypothesis testing Fisher's exact test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test Martingales, renewal processes, and Brownian motion One-way analysis of variance and the general linear model Extensively class-tested to ensure an accessible presentation, Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes, Second Edition is an excellent book for courses on probability and statistics at the upper-undergraduate level. The book is also an ideal resource for scientists and engineers in the fields of statistics, mathematics, industrial management, and engineering.
Statistical inference carries great significance in model building from both the theoretical and the applications points of view. Its applications to engineering and economic systems, financial economics, and the biological and medical sciences have made statistical inference for stochastic processes a well-recognized and important branch of statistics and probability. The class of semimartingales includes a large class of stochastic processes, including diffusion type processes, point processes, and diffusion type processes with jumps, widely used for stochastic modeling. Until now, however, researchers have had no single reference that collected the research conducted on the asymptotic theory for semimartingales. Semimartingales and their Statistical Inference, fills this need by presenting a comprehensive discussion of the asymptotic theory of semimartingales at a level needed for researchers working in the area of statistical inference for stochastic processes. The author brings together into one volume the state-of-the-art in the inferential aspect for such processes. The topics discussed include: Asymptotic likelihood theory Quasi-likelihood Likelihood and efficiency Inference for counting processes Inference for semimartingale regression models The author addresses a number of stochastic modeling applications from engineering, economic systems, financial economics, and medical sciences. He also includes some of the new and challenging statistical and probabilistic problems facing today's active researchers working in the area of inference for stochastic processes.
The primary aim of this book is to provide modern statistical techniques and theory for stochastic processes. The stochastic processes mentioned here are not restricted to the usual AR, MA, and ARMA processes. A wide variety of stochastic processes, including non-Gaussian linear processes, long-memory processes, nonlinear processes, non-ergodic processes and diffusion processes are described. The authors discuss estimation and testing theory and many other relevant statistical methods and techniques.
A comprehensive account of the statistical theory of exponential families of stochastic processes. The book reviews the progress in the field made over the last ten years or so by the authors - two of the leading experts in the field - and several other researchers. The theory is applied to a broad spectrum of examples, covering a large number of frequently applied stochastic process models with discrete as well as continuous time. To make the reading even easier for statisticians with only a basic background in the theory of stochastic process, the first part of the book is based on classical theory of stochastic processes only, while stochastic calculus is used later. Most of the concepts and tools from stochastic calculus needed when working with inference for stochastic processes are introduced and explained without proof in an appendix. This appendix can also be used independently as an introduction to stochastic calculus for statisticians. Numerous exercises are also included.