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This monograph brings together my work in mathematical statistics as I have viewed it through the lens of Jordan algebras. Three technical domains are to be seen: applications to random quadratic forms (sums of squares), the investigation of algebraic simplifications of maxi mum likelihood estimation of patterned covariance matrices, and a more wide open mathematical exploration of the algebraic arena from which I have drawn the results used in the statistical problems just mentioned. Chapters 1, 2, and 4 present the statistical outcomes I have developed using the algebraic results that appear, for the most part, in Chapter 3. As a less daunting, yet quite efficient, point of entry into this material, one avoiding most of the abstract algebraic issues, the reader may use the first half of Chapter 4. Here I present a streamlined, but still fully rigorous, definition of a Jordan algebra (as it is used in that chapter) and its essential properties. These facts are then immediately applied to simplifying the M:-step of the EM algorithm for multivariate normal covariance matrix estimation, in the presence of linear constraints, and data missing completely at random. The results presented essentially resolve a practical statistical quest begun by Rubin and Szatrowski [1982], and continued, sometimes implicitly, by many others. After this, one could then return to Chapters 1 and 2 to see how I have attempted to generalize the work of Cochran, Rao, Mitra, and others, on important and useful properties of sums of squares.
This monograph brings together my work in mathematical statistics as I have viewed it through the lens of Jordan algebras. Three technical domains are to be seen: applications to random quadratic forms (sums of squares), the investigation of algebraic simplifications of maxi mum likelihood estimation of patterned covariance matrices, and a more wide open mathematical exploration of the algebraic arena from which I have drawn the results used in the statistical problems just mentioned. Chapters 1, 2, and 4 present the statistical outcomes I have developed using the algebraic results that appear, for the most part, in Chapter 3. As a less daunting, yet quite efficient, point of entry into this material, one avoiding most of the abstract algebraic issues, the reader may use the first half of Chapter 4. Here I present a streamlined, but still fully rigorous, definition of a Jordan algebra (as it is used in that chapter) and its essential properties. These facts are then immediately applied to simplifying the M:-step of the EM algorithm for multivariate normal covariance matrix estimation, in the presence of linear constraints, and data missing completely at random. The results presented essentially resolve a practical statistical quest begun by Rubin and Szatrowski [1982], and continued, sometimes implicitly, by many others. After this, one could then return to Chapters 1 and 2 to see how I have attempted to generalize the work of Cochran, Rao, Mitra, and others, on important and useful properties of sums of squares.
This book is a useful overview of results in multivariate probability distributions and multivariate analysis as well as a reference to harmonic analysis on symmetric cones adapted to the needs of researchers in analysis and probability theory.
These notes represent our summary of much of the recent research that has been done in recent years on approximations and bounds that have been developed for compound distributions and related quantities which are of interest in insurance and other areas of application in applied probability. The basic technique employed in the derivation of many bounds is induc tive, an approach that is motivated by arguments used by Sparre-Andersen (1957) in connection with a renewal risk model in insurance. This technique is both simple and powerful, and yields quite general results. The bounds themselves are motivated by the classical Lundberg exponential bounds which apply to ruin probabilities, and the connection to compound dis tributions is through the interpretation of the ruin probability as the tail probability of a compound geometric distribution. The initial exponential bounds were given in Willmot and Lin (1994), followed by the nonexpo nential generalization in Willmot (1994). Other related work on approximations for compound distributions and applications to various problems in insurance in particular and applied probability in general is also discussed in subsequent chapters. The results obtained or the arguments employed in these situations are similar to those for the compound distributions, and thus we felt it useful to include them in the notes. In many cases we have included exact results, since these are useful in conjunction with the bounds and approximations developed.
This book consists of three parts: Part One is composed of two introductory chapters. The first chapter provides an instrumental varible interpretation of the state space time series algorithm originally proposed by Aoki (1983), and gives an introductory account for incorporating exogenous signals in state space models. The second chapter, by Havenner, gives practical guidance in apply ing this algorithm by one of the most experienced practitioners of the method. Havenner begins by summarizing six reasons state space methods are advanta geous, and then walks the reader through construction and evaluation of a state space model for four monthly macroeconomic series: industrial production in dex, consumer price index, six month commercial paper rate, and money stock (Ml). To single out one of the several important insights in modeling that he shares with the reader, he discusses in Section 2ii the effects of sampling er rors and model misspecification on successful modeling efforts. He argues that model misspecification is an important amplifier of the effects of sampling error that may cause symplectic matrices to have complex unit roots, a theoretical impossibility. Correct model specifications increase efficiency of estimators and often eliminate this finite sample problem. This is an important insight into the positive realness of covariance matrices; positivity has been emphasized by system engineers to the exclusion of other methods of reducing sampling error and alleviating what is simply a finite sample problem. The second and third parts collect papers that describe specific applications.
The mathematical theory of ondelettes (wavelets) was developed by Yves Meyer and many collaborators about 10 years ago. It was designed for ap proximation of possibly irregular functions and surfaces and was successfully applied in data compression, turbulence analysis, image and signal process ing. Five years ago wavelet theory progressively appeared to be a power ful framework for nonparametric statistical problems. Efficient computa tional implementations are beginning to surface in this second lustrum of the nineties. This book brings together these three main streams of wavelet theory. It presents the theory, discusses approximations and gives a variety of statistical applications. It is the aim of this text to introduce the novice in this field into the various aspects of wavelets. Wavelets require a highly interactive computing interface. We present therefore all applications with software code from an interactive statistical computing environment. Readers interested in theory and construction of wavelets will find here in a condensed form results that are somewhat scattered around in the research literature. A practioner will be able to use wavelets via the available software code. We hope therefore to address both theory and practice with this book and thus help to construct bridges between the different groups of scientists. This te. xt grew out of a French-German cooperation (Seminaire Paris Berlin, Seminar Berlin-Paris). This seminar brings together theoretical and applied statisticians from Berlin and Paris. This work originates in the first of these seminars organized in Garchy, Burgundy in 1994.
This book presents a method of establishing explicit solutions to classical problems of calculating the best lower and upper mean-variance bounds. The following families of distributions are taken into account: arbitrary, symmetric, symmetric unimodal, and U-shaped. The book is addressed to students, researchers, and practitioners in statistics and applied probability. Most of the results are recent, and a significant part of them has not been published yet. Numerous open problems are stated in the text.
This third volume of case studies presents detailed applications of Bayesian statistical analysis, emphasising the scientific context. The papers were presented and discussed at a workshop held at Carnegie-Mellon University, and this volume - dedicated to the memory of Morrie Groot-reproduces six invited papers, each with accompanying invited discussion, and nine contributed papers with the focus on econometric applications.
Statistical disclosure control is the discipline that deals with producing statistical data that are safe enough to be released to external researchers. This book concentrates on the methodology of the area. It deals with both microdata (individual data) and tabular (aggregated) data. The book attempts to develop the theory from what can be called the paradigm of statistical confidentiality: to modify unsafe data in such a way that safe (enough) data emerge, with minimum information loss. This book discusses what safe data, are, how information loss can be measured, and how to modify the data in a (near) optimal way. Once it has been decided how to measure safety and information loss, the production of safe data from unsafe data is often a matter of solving an optimization problem. Several such problems are discussed in the book, and most of them turn out to be hard problems that can be solved only approximately. The authors present new results that have not been published before. The book is not a description of an area that is closed, but, on the contrary, one that still has many spots awaiting to be more fully explored. Some of these are indicated in the book. The book will be useful for official, social and medical statisticians and others who are involved in releasing personal or business data for statistical use. Operations researchers may be interested in the optimization problems involved, particularly for the challenges they present. Leon Willenborg has worked at the Department of Statistical Methods at Statistics Netherlands since 1983, first as a researcher and since 1989 as a senior researcher. Since 1989 his main field of research and consultancy has been statistical disclosure control. From 1996-1998 he was the project coordinator of the EU co-funded SDC project.
The present lecture notes describe stochastic epidemic models and methods for their statistical analysis. Our aim is to present ideas for such models, and methods for their analysis; along the way we make practical use of several probabilistic and statistical techniques. This will be done without focusing on any specific disease, and instead rigorously analyzing rather simple models. The reader of these lecture notes could thus have a two-fold purpose in mind: to learn about epidemic models and their statistical analysis, and/or to learn and apply techniques in probability and statistics. The lecture notes require an early graduate level knowledge of probability and They introduce several techniques which might be new to students, but our statistics. intention is to present these keeping the technical level at a minlmum. Techniques that are explained and applied in the lecture notes are, for example: coupling, diffusion approximation, random graphs, likelihood theory for counting processes, martingales, the EM-algorithm and MCMC methods. The aim is to introduce and apply these techniques, thus hopefully motivating their further theoretical treatment. A few sections, mainly in Chapter 5, assume some knowledge of weak convergence; we hope that readers not familiar with this theory can understand the these parts at a heuristic level. The text is divided into two distinct but related parts: modelling and estimation.