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This paper examines the economic and financial linkages between Morocco and Tunisia and their European partners. Using structural vector autoregressions, we find that growth shocks in European partner countries generate significant responses on growth in Morocco and Tunisia. For Tunisia, exports and, to a much lesser extent, tourism appear to be the major transmission channels. In Morocco, exports, remittances and tourism play relatively equal roles. An analysis with sectoral data supports these results.
This paper examines the economic and financial linkages between Morocco and Tunisia and their European partners. Using structural vector autoregressions, we find that growth shocks in European partner countries generate significant responses on growth in Morocco and Tunisia. For Tunisia, exports and, to a much lesser extent, tourism appear to be the major transmission channels. In Morocco, exports, remittances and tourism play relatively equal roles. An analysis with sectoral data supports these results.
Using a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model, this paper examines the size, geographical sources, and transmission channels of global and regional shocks to the Armenian economy. Results show that Armenian economic activity is strongly influenced by global demand shocks and changes in oil prices, yet relatively immune to financial volatility. Transmission takes place through the Russian and EU economies, remittances, and external borrowing. The role of exports and tourism is low. Russia is key in transforming the potentially negative impact of an increase in oil prices into a positive event, through stronger remittances and exports. Services and construction, which depend significantly on remittances and external borrowing, are the most affected by global and regional shocks.
With the creation of the Mediterranean partnership and the recent move towards the creation of the Union for the Mediterranean in 2008, a new emphasis is placed on the Mediterranean in the study of European Integration. This book brings together a collection of experts to address this important new area of study and discuss issues such as development, aid, labour, markets, human capital investment, Europeanization and institutional reform.
Individual countries of the Maghreb have achieved substantial progress on trade, but, as a region they remain the least integrated in the world. The share of intraregional trade is less than 5 percent of their total trade, substantially lower than in all other regional trading blocs around the world. Geopolitical considerations and restrictive economic policies have stifled regional integration. Economic policies have been guided by country-level considerations, with little attention to the region, and are not coordinated. Restrictions on trade and capital flows remain substantial and constrain regional integration for the private sector.
Global spillovers have entered a new phase. With crisis-related spillovers and risks fading, changing growth patterns are the main source of spillovers in the global economy at this juncture. Two key trends are highly relevant here. First, signs of self-sustaining recovery in some advanced economies indicate that the unwinding of exceptional monetary accommodation will proceed and lead to a tightening of global financial conditions in the coming years. An uneven recovery, though, suggests normalization will proceed at different times in different countries, with possible spillover implications. Second, growth in emerging markets is slowing on a broad basis since its precrisis peak and can carry noticeable spillover effects at the global level. Model code and programs used for the spillover simulations can be made available. Data used for the empirical analysis can be made available unless restricted by copyright or confidentiality issues.
Democracy promotion in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remains a central pillar of the foreign policy the European Union (EU). Rather than concentrating on the relations between the incumbent authoritarian regimes and the opposition in the relevant countries, and on the degree to which these relations are affected by EU efforts at promoting democracy, human rights and the rule of law (an outside-in approach), this collection of articles inverts the focus of such relationships and attempts to look at them ‘inside-out’. While some contributions also emphasise the ‘outside-in’ axis, given that this continues to be analytically rewarding, the overarching thrust of this book is to provide some empirical substance for the claim that EU policy making is not unidirectional and is influenced by the perceptions and actions of its ‘targets’. Thus, the focus is on domestic political changes on the ground in the MENA and how they link into what the EU is attempting to achieve in the region. Finally, the self-representation of the EU and its (lack of a) clear regional role is discussed. This book was published as a special issue of Democratization.
The Q&A in this issue features seven questions about emerging markets and the financial crisis (by Ayhan Kose); the research summaries are "Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle" (by Cemile Sancak, Ricardo Velloso, and Jing Xing) and "Banking Crisis Resolution: Was this Time Different?" (by Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia). The issue also lists the contents of the second issue of the IMF Economic Review, Volume 58 Number 2; visiting scholars at the IMF during October-December 2010; and recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Position Notes.
This publication examines the importance of trade in services for the integration of non-EU members into the European Single Market. Further liberalisation is found to be a critical factor to deeper integration with the enlarged EU, which accounts for a quarter of global GDP and foreign direct investment. The planned Euro-Mediterranean free trade area for goods is judged as a positive first step, but additional measures are needed for deeper integration, including liberalisation of services trade. The study gives a detailed assessment of individual sectors, including core services relating to transport, telecommunication, financial markets and electricity, as well other markets such as tourism, IT and distribution services.
How Europe can hit the “reset” button after years of failed responses to North African turmoil The ongoing upheaval in North Africa has presented many challenges to Europe, which previously had been comfortable with the status quo of authoritarian leadership in much of the region. Now in its ninth year, the turmoil has forced European leaders to rethink their approaches to the region, based on the now-obvious reality that the brief hopes of early 2011 for the spread of democracy and economic progress will not be fulfilled anytime soon. In this book, experts from Europe, the United States, and the Middle East discuss what has happened since the so-called “Arab Spring” emerged and how those often-bewildering events have affected both North Africa and the European states across the Mediterranean. The book is based on papers presented at a March 2018 conference sponsored by the South Mediterranean Regional Program of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung. Chapters focus on events in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia—and offer ideas for how the European Union can adopt fresh approaches to the region, moving beyond its frequently uncertain and shifting responses of recent years.