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A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
This book critically discusses and systematically compares J.M. Keynes and F. H. Knight, two giants in the history of economic thought. In 1921 they both published apparently similar books on risk, probability, and uncertainty. However, while Knight's contribution on risk and uncertainty is now well recognized, Keynes's work on probability and uncertainty has been somewhat ignored in the shadow of his more famous The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936). Focusing on an earlier yet equally important volume by Keynes, A Treatise on Probability (1921), this book sheds a light on his outstanding ideas and the lasting influence on his later works, including The General Theory. There are few books that systematically discuss Keynes and Knight, although there are remarkable comparisons between Keynes's concept of probability and uncertainty and Knight's distinction between a measurable risk and a non-measurable uncertainty. This timely book unifies Keynes and Knight into a new, comprehensive approach to a very complex human behavior
John Maynard Keynes is the great British economist of the twentieth century whose hugely influential work The General Theory of Employment, Interest and * is undoubtedly the century's most important book on economics--strongly influencing economic theory and practice, particularly with regard to the role of government in stimulating and regulating a nation's economic life. Keynes's work has undergone significant revaluation in recent years, and "Keynesian" views which have been widely defended for so long are now perceived as at odds with Keynes's own thinking. Recent scholarship and research has demonstrated considerable rivalry and controversy concerning the proper interpretation of Keynes's works, such that recourse to the original text is all the more important. Although considered by a few critics that the sentence structures of the book are quite incomprehensible and almost unbearable to read, the book is an essential reading for all those who desire a basic education in economics. The key to understanding Keynes is the notion that at particular times in the business cycle, an economy can become over-productive (or under-consumptive) and thus, a vicious spiral is begun that results in massive layoffs and cuts in production as businesses attempt to equilibrate aggregate supply and demand. Thus, full employment is only one of many or multiple macro equilibria. If an economy reaches an underemployment equilibrium, something is necessary to boost or stimulate demand to produce full employment. This something could be business investment but because of the logic and individualist nature of investment decisions, it is unlikely to rapidly restore full employment. Keynes logically seizes upon the public budget and government expenditures as the quickest way to restore full employment. Borrowing the * to finance the deficit from private households and businesses is a quick, direct way to restore full employment while at the same time, redirecting or siphoning
The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.
While the first conference (1993) focused on methodological issues, the 13 papers of the second are more concerned with developments in theory, empirical work, and policy questions as they seek to carry on the insights of economist John Maynard Keynes into and through the 1990s. Among the themes are the relationship between microeconomic and macroeconomic levels, uncertainty and its implications for individual behavior as it underpins macroeconomic behavior, and applying post- Keynesian theory to policy questions particularly in the international arena. The proceedings of the first conference were published under a separate title, and this series begins Volume One with the second conference. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
This book connects entrepreneurship and psychology research by focusing on the personality dimensions of entrepreneurs, entrepreneurial cognition, entrepreneurial leadership, and gender behavior. It features state of the art interdisciplinary research offering a unified perspective on entrepreneurial psychology. Individual chapters address advances related to entrepreneurial intentions, complexity management, personality psychology, intrapreneurial behavior, entrepreneurial communities and demographic changes, among others. Laboratory experiments that study entrepreneurial behavior round out the coverage.
Every company's ability to innovate depends on a process of experimentation whereby new products and services are created and existing ones improved. But the cost of experimentation often limits innovation. New technologies--including computer modeling and simulation--promise to lift that constraint by changing the economics of experimentation. Never before has it been so economically feasible to ask "what-if" questions and generate preliminary answers. These technologies amplify the impact of learning, paving the way for higher R&D performance and innovation and new ways of creating value for customers.In Experimentation Matters, Stefan Thomke argues that to unlock such potential, companies must not only understand the power of experimentation and new technologies, but also change their processes, organization, and management of innovation. He explains why experimentation is so critical to innovation, underscores the impact of new technologies, and outlines what managers must do to integrate them successfully. Drawing on a decade of research in multiple industries as diverse as automotive, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and banking, Thomke provides striking illustrations of how companies drive strategy and value creation by accommodating their organizations to new experimentation technologies.As in the outcome of any effective experiment, Thomke also reveals where that has not happened, and explains why. In particular, he shows managers how to: implement "front-loaded" innovation processes that identify potential problems before resources are committed and design decisions locked in; experiment and test frequently without overloading their organizations; integrate new technologies into the current innovation system; organize for rapid experimentation; fail early and often, but avoid wasteful "mistakes"; and manage projects as experiments.Pointing to the custom integrated circuit industry--a multibillion dollar market--Thomke also shows what happens when new experimentation technologies are taken beyond firm boundaries, thereby changing the way companies create new products and services with customers and suppliers. Probing and thoughtful, Experimentation Matters will influence how both executives and academics think about experimentation in general and innovation processes in particular. Experimentation has always been the engine of innovation, and Thomke reveals how it works today.
Climate and anthropogenic changes impact the conditions of erosion and sediment transport in rivers. Rainfall variability and, in many places, the increase of rainfall intensity have a direct impact on rainfall erosivity. Increasing changes in demography have led to the acceleration of land cover changes in natural areas, as well as in cultivated areas, and, sometimes, in degraded areas and desertified landscapes. These anthropogenized landscapes are more sensitive to erosion. On the other hand, the increase in the number of dams in watersheds traps a great portion of sediment fluxes, which do not reach the sea in the same amount, nor at the same quality, with consequences on coastal geomorphodynamics. This book is dedicated to studies on sediment fluxes from continental areas to coastal areas, as well as observation, modeling, and impact analysis at different scales from watershed slopes to the outputs of large river basins. This book is concentrated on a number of keywords: “erosion” and “sediment transport”, “model” and “practice”, and “change”. The keywords are briefly discussed with respect to the relevant literature. The contributions in this book address observations and models based on laboratory and field data, allowing researchers to make use of such resources in practice under changing conditions.
Ellsberg elaborates on "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms" and mounts a powerful challenge to the dominant theory of rational decision in this book.
Risk has become one of the main topics in fields as diverse as engineering, medicine and economics, and it is also studied by social scientists, psychologists and legal scholars. This Springer Essentials version offers an overview of the in-depth handbook and highlights some of the main points covered in the Handbook of Risk Theory. The topic of risk also leads to more fundamental questions such as: What is risk? What can decision theory contribute to the analysis of risk? What does the human perception of risk mean for society? How should we judge whether a risk is morally acceptable or not? Over the last couple of decades questions like these have attracted interest from philosophers and other scholars into risk theory. This brief offers the essentials of the handbook provides for an overview into key topics in a major new field of research and addresses a wide range of topics, ranging from decision theory, risk perception to ethics and social implications of risk. It aims to promote communication and information among all those who are interested in theoretical issues concerning risk and uncertainty. The Essentials of Risk Theory brings together internationally leading philosophers and scholars from other disciplines who work on risk theory. The contributions are accessibly written and highly relevant to issues that are studied by risk scholars. The Essentials of Risk Theory will be a helpful starting point for all risk scholars who are interested in broadening and deepening their current perspectives. ​