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There was substantial spatial variation in labor market outcomes in Brazil over the 1990s. In 2000, about one-fifth of workers lived in apparently economically stagnant municipios where real wages declined but employment increased faster than the national population growth rate. More than one-third lived in apparently dynamic municipios, experiencing both real wage growth and faster-than-average employment growth. These areas absorbed more than half of net employment growth over the period. To elucidate this spatial variation, the authors estimate spatial labor supply and demand equations describing wage and employment changes of Brazilian municipios. They use Conley's spatial GMM technique to allow for instrumental variable estimation in the presence of spatially autocorrelated errors. The main findings include: (1) a very strong influence of initial workforce educational levels on subsequent wage growth (controlling for possibly confounding variables such as remoteness and climate); (2) evidence of positive spillover effects of own-municipio growth onto neighbors' wage and employment levels; (3) an exodus from farming areas; (4) relatively elastic response of wages to an increase in labor supply; and (5) evidence of a local multiplier effect from government transfers.--Cf. Abstract.
We document the short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Brazilian labor market focusing on employment, wages and hours worked using the nationally representative household surveys PNAD-Continua and PNAD COVID. Sectors most susceptible to the shock because they are more contact-intensive and less teleworkable, such as construction, domestic services and hospitality, suffered large job losses and reductions in hours. Given low income workers experienced the largest decline in earnings, extreme poverty and the Gini coefficient based on labor income increased by around 9.2 and 5 percentage points, respectively, due to the immediate shock. The government’s broad based, temporary Emergency Aid transfer program more than offset the labor income losses for the bottom four deciles, however, such that poverty relative to the pre-COVID baseline fell. At a cost of around 4 percent of GDP in 2020 such support is not fiscally sustainable beyond the short-term and ended in late 2020. The challenge will be to avoid a sharp increase in poverty and inequality if the labor market does not pick up sufficiently fast in 2021.
Migration presents a stark policy dilemma. Research repeatedly confirms that migrants, their families back home, and the countries that welcome them experience large economic and social gains. Easing immigration restrictions is one of the most effective tools for ending poverty and sharing prosperity across the globe. Yet, we see widespread opposition in destination countries, where migrants are depicted as the primary cause of many of their economic problems, from high unemployment to declining social services. Moving for Prosperity: Global Migration and Labor Markets addresses this dilemma. In addition to providing comprehensive data and empirical analysis of migration patterns and their impact, the report argues for a series of policies that work with, rather than against, labor market forces. Policy makers should aim to ease short-run dislocations and adjustment costs so that the substantial long-term benefits are shared more evenly. Only then can we avoid draconian migration restrictions that will hurt everybody. Moving for Prosperity aims to inform and stimulate policy debate, facilitate further research, and identify prominent knowledge gaps. It demonstrates why existing income gaps, demographic differences, and rapidly declining transportation costs mean that global mobility will continue to be a key feature of our lives for generations to come. Its audience includes anyone interested in one of the most controversial policy debates of our time.
The aging and migration megatrends and their impact on spatial – regional and local – labor market performance is the core theme of this book, and thus together define its scope and focus. The contributions provide an overview of key aging and migration issues in various countries together with analyses of their varied impacts on regional labor markets. Systematic database research and related empirical analyses are used to map out the complex and dynamic nature of these trends, while cutting-edge economic and modeling techniques are used to analyze them. In closing, the book critically reviews and assesses selected policy measures designed to cope with the effects of aging and migration on regional labor markets.
Over 2004-11, the World Bank Group program in Brazil aimed to support to government in achieving greater equity, sustainability, and competitiveness. IEG judges the outcome of the Bank Group program as moderately satisfactory, with some important variability across themes.
Many Latin American countries in recent years have moved toward a more inclusive pensions system with expanded coverage of the elderly. Given the difference in initial conditions, objectives pursued, and implementing capacity, results have varied noticeably across countries.
Due to climatic, social, and epidemiological challenges, urban areas are suffering from recurring problems that require profound and sustainable solutions. Although they cover only a small area of the earth’s surface, metropolises are responsible for most of the world’s global carbon emissions, which cause adverse effects on energy and the climate. This book discusses the spatial development of urban areas in the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Chapters address the problems of large urban agglomerations, examine their impacts on both people and the environment, and propose intervention policies and strategies. The book also presents case studies from different areas of the world, including Chile, Brazil, and India.
Brazil is at crossroads, emerging slowly from a historic recession that was preceded by a huge economic boom. Reasons for the historic bust following a boom are manifold. Policy mistakes were an important contributory factor, and included the pursuit of countercyclical policies, introduced to deal with the effects of the global financial crisis, beyond the point where they were helpful. More fundamentally, it reflects longstanding structural weaknesses plaguing the economy, that also help explain Brazil’s uninspiring growth performance over the past four decades.