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This book is the result of my doctoral dissertation research at the Department of Econometrics of the University of Geneva, Switzerland. This research was also partially financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grants 12- 31072.91 and 12-40300.94). First and foremost, I wish to express my deepest gratitude to Professor Manfred Gilli, my thesis supervisor, for his constant support and help. I would also like to thank the president of my jury, Professor Fabrizio Carlevaro, as well as the other members of the jury, Professor Andrew Hughes Hallett, Professor Jean-Philippe Vial and Professor Gerhard Wanner. I am grateful to my colleagues and friends of the Departement of Econometrics, especially David Miceli who provided constant help and kind understanding during all the stages of my research. I would also like to thank Pascale Mignon for proofreading my text and im proving my English. Finally, I am greatly indebted to my parents for their kindness and encourage ments without which I could never have achieved my goals. Giorgio Pauletto Department of Econometrics, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland Chapter 1 Introduction The purpose of this book is to present the available methodologies for the solution of large-scale macroeconometric models. This work reviews classical solution methods and introduces more recent techniques, such as parallel com puting and nonstationary iterative algorithms.
It is commonly believed that macroeconomic models are not useful for policy analysis because they do not take proper account of agents' expectations. Over the last decade, mainstream macroeconomic models in the UK and elsewhere have taken on board the `Rational Expectations Revolution' by explicitly incorporating expectations of the future. In principle, one can perform the same technical exercises on a forward expectations model as on a conventional model -- and more! Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models deals with the numerical methods necessary to carry out policy analysis and forecasting with these models. These methods are often passed on by word of mouth or confined to obscure journals. Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models brings them together with applications which are interesting in their own right. There is no comparable textbook in the literature. The specific subjects include: (i) solving for model consistent expectations; (ii) the choice of terminal condition and time horizon; (iii) experimental design: i.e., the effect of temporary vs permanent, anticipated vs. unanticipated shocks; deterministic vs. stochastic, dynamic vs. static simulation; (iv) the role of exchange rate; (v) optimal control and inflation-output tradeoffs. The models used are those of the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, the London Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
This paper is the first that applies a new measure of competition, the Boone indicator, to the banking industry. This approach is able to measure competition of bank market segments, such asthe loan market, where as many well-known measures of competition can consider the entire banking market only. A caveat of the Boone-indicator may be that it assumes that banks generally pass on at least part of their efficiency gains to their clients. Like most other model-basedmeasures, this approach ignores differences in bank product quality and design, as well as the attractiveness of innovations. We measure competition on the lending markets in the five major EU countries as well as, for comparison, the UK, the US and Japan. Bearing the mentioned caveats in mind, our findings indicate that over the period 1994-2004 the US had the most competitive loan market, whereas overall loan markets in Germany and Spain were among the best competitive in the EU. The Netherlands occupied a more intermediate position, whereas in Italy competition declined significantly over time. The French, Japanese and UK loan markets were generally less competitive. Turning to competition among specific types of banks, commercial banks tend to be more competitive, particularly in Germany and the US, than savings and cooperative bank.