CENTRA Technology (Firm)
Published: 2009
Total Pages: 37
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Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment, National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries/regions of the world: India, China, Russia, North Africa, Mexico and the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island states. In April 2009, CENTRA Technology, Inc., convened a group of regional experts to explore the socio-political challenges, civil and key interest group responses, government responses, and regional and geopolitical implications of climate change on Russia through 2030. The group of outside experts consisted of social scientists, economists, and political scientists. Although the targeted time frame of the analysis was to 2030, the perceptions of decisionmakers in 2030 will be colored by expectations about the relative severity of climate changes projected later in the century. The participants accordingly considered climate impacts beyond 2030 where appropriate. The panelists concluded that systemic state failures attributable solely to climate change to 2030 are not likely. However, climatic stress coupled with socioeconomic crises and ineffective state responses could generate localized social or governmental collapses and humanitarian crises. The effects of climate change in North Africa will exacerbate the region's existing challenges of insufficient water and food resources, low economic growth, inadequate urban infrastructure, and weak sociopolitical systems.