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Papers and proceedings of a regional seminar organized in collaboration with the research and information system for the non-aligned and other developing countries (RIS) New Delhi, 27 February to 1 March 1989.
"The authors present real per capita GDP growth forecasts for all developing countries for the period 2005-14. For 55 of these countries, representing major world regions and accounting for close to 80 percent of the developing world's GDP, they forecast the growth effects of the main forces underpinning growth, assuming that these evolve following past trends. The authors find that for the average developing country the largest growth dividend comes from continued improvement in public infrastructure, followed by the growth contributions of rising secondary school enrollment, trade openness, and financial deepening. The joint contribution of these four growth determinants to average, annual per capita GDP growth in the next decade is estimated to be 1 percentage point. Failure to keep improving public infrastructure alone could reduce this growth dividend by 50 percent. The forecasted growth contributions differ by country qualitatively and quantitatively. "--World Bank web site.
This book provides an overview of macroeconometric modeling for less developed countries, a description of the structure and performance of Guyana's economy, an empirical testing of the model using annual data for Guyana, and a simulation approach to policy evaluation.
INFORUM is a research project started more than forty five years ago by Clopper Almon. The focus is on the development of dynamic, interindustry, macroeconometric models to forecast the economy in the long run. Over the last 30 years, the Inforum approach to model building has been shared by economists in many different countries. Researchers have focused much of their efforts to developing a linked system of international interindustry models with a consistent methodology. A world-wide network of research associates use similar methods and a common software obtaining comparable results to produce studies of common interest to the group. Inforum partners have shared their research in an annual conference since 1993. The XXII Inforum World Conference was held in Alexandria, Virginia in September 2014 and this book contains a selection of papers presented during the sessions. All these contributions share an empirical and pragmatic orientation that is very useful for policymakers, business, and applied economists. Some papers are devoted to specific topics (productivity, energy, international trade, demographic changes) and some others are oriented to model building and simulations.
UNESCO pub. Compilation of conference papers on development planning methodologys - examines long term forecasting techniques, use of scenarios and economic models in international cooperation such as the North South dialogue and South South economic relations, correlations between technological change, industrialization, employment and unemployment, choice of technology, skills and self reliance in developing countries, etc. Diagrams, graphs and references. Conference held in Brighton 1978.
Over the past decades, many different kinds of models have been developed that have been of use to policy makers, but until now the different approaches have not been brought together with a view to enhancing the systematic unification and evaluation of these models. This new volume aims to fill this gap by bringing together four decades’ worth of work by S. I. Cohen on economic modelling for policy making. Work on older models has been rewritten and brought fully up to date, and these older models have therefore been brought back to the fore, both to assess how they influenced more recent models and to see how they could be used today. The focus of the book is on models for development policies in developing economies, but there are some chapters that relate to economic policies in transition and developed economies. The policy areas covered are of typical interest in developing and transition economies. They include those relating to trade liberalization reforms, sustainable development, industrial development, agrarian reform, growth and distribution, human resource development and education, public goods and income transfers. Each chapter contains a brief assessment of the empirical literature on the economic effects of the policy measures discussed in the chapter. The book presents a platform of economic modelling that can serve as a refresher for practising professionals, as well as a reference companion for graduates engaging in economic modelling and policy preparations.
It has been quite a challenge for econometricians to model economies in transition. There is no textbook at hand to master that task. Economic theory cannot be applied without adaptations to the characteristic change of a whole economic system. Regression analysis, taking into account past economic development only, is of limited use for the econometrician. Having econometric models at hand would be very helpful for an active economic policy to guide the transition process. Various scenarios representing strategies could be simulated in their consequences to the economy. The best alternative in respect to the government's objectives could be chosen. This very situation has born the idea of co-operation between L6dz and Frankfurt in 1990. There are problems of this kind in Poland and in Germany. The German situation is somewhat better than that of Poland as a relatively small centrally planned economy is being united with a substantial social market economy taking over a lot of the burden of the former mismanagement. Thus, it might be possible to share the experience in modelling the united Germany and preparing forecasts with the Polish model builders. In addition, it would be prOfitable for both model establishing teams to link their models in order to improve the forecasting potential. Moreover, the Polish partner has a broad national and international experience in econometric model building which makes co-operation smooth and fruitful. His experience in modelling countries with a centrally planned economy would also help to master the transition problems.
This volume examines the experiences of a number of Third World countries in implementing development plans in the 1970s and offers some guidelines for research, development, and analysis of policy. Some chapters focus on theoretical issues such as the place of development on the policy agenda and the institutionalization of development policy planning. Other chapters detail global and national strategies for employment, reducing poverty, and developing human resources. The use of various economic indicators as tools for planning and analysis is also discussed.