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This book describes the classical smoothing, filtering and prediction techniques together with some more recently developed embellishments for improving performance within applications. It aims to present the subject in an accessible way, so that it can serve as a practical guide for undergraduates and newcomers to the field. The material is organised as a ten-lecture course. The foundations are laid in Chapters 1 and 2, which explain minimum-mean-square-error solution construction and asymptotic behaviour. Chapters 3 and 4 introduce continuous-time and discrete-time minimum-variance filtering. Generalisations for missing data, deterministic inputs, correlated noises, direct feedthrough terms, output estimation and equalisation are described. Chapter 5 simplifies the minimum-variance filtering results for steady-state problems. Observability, Riccati equation solution convergence, asymptotic stability and Wiener filter equivalence are discussed. Chapters 6 and 7 cover the subject of continuous-time and discrete-time smoothing. The main fixed-lag, fixed-point and fixed-interval smoother results are derived. It is shown that the minimum-variance fixed-interval smoother attains the best performance. Chapter 8 attends to parameter estimation. As the above-mentioned approaches all rely on knowledge of the underlying model parameters, maximum-likelihood techniques within expectation-maximisation algorithms for joint state and parameter estimation are described. Chapter 9 is concerned with robust techniques that accommodate uncertainties within problem specifications. An extra term within Riccati equations enables designers to trade-off average error and peak error performance. Chapter 10 rounds off the course by applying the afore-mentioned linear techniques to nonlinear estimation problems. It is demonstrated that step-wise linearisations can be used within predictors, filters and smoothers, albeit by forsaking optimal performance guarantees.
A unified Bayesian treatment of the state-of-the-art filtering, smoothing, and parameter estimation algorithms for non-linear state space models.
Graduate-level text extends studies of signal processing, particularly regarding communication systems and digital filtering theory. Topics include filtering, linear systems, and estimation; discrete-time Kalman filter; time-invariant filters; more. 1979 edition.
A synthesis of concepts and materials, that ordinarily appear separately in time series and econometrics literature, presents a comprehensive review of theoretical and applied concepts in modeling economic and social time series.
Smoothing is often used to reduce noise within an image or to produce a less pixelated image. Most smoothing methods are based on low pass filters. Smoothing is also usually based on a single value representing the image, such as the average value of the image or the middle (median) value. In image processing, to smooth a data set is to create an approximating function that attempts to capture important patterns in the data, while leaving out noise or other fine-scale structures/rapid phenomena. In smoothing, the data points of a signal are modified so individual points (presumably because of noise) are reduced, and points that are lower than the adjacent points are increased leading to a smoother signal. Smoothing may be used in two important ways that can aid in data analysis; by being able to extract more information from the data as long as the assumption of smoothing is reasonable and; by being able to provide analyses that are both flexible and robust. Filtering and prediction is about observing moving objects when the observations are corrupted by random errors. Smoothing, Filtering and Prediction - Estimating The Past, Present and Future describes the classical smoothing, filtering and prediction techniques together with some more recently developed embellishments for improving performance within applications. It aims to present the subject in an accessible way, so that it can serve as a practical guide for undergraduates and newcomers to the field.
Linear prediction theory has had a profound impact in the field of digital signal processing. Although the theory dates back to the early 1940s, its influence can still be seen in applications today. The theory is based on very elegant mathematics and leads to many beautiful insights into statistical signal processing. Although prediction is only a part of the more general topics of linear estimation, filtering, and smoothing, this book focuses on linear prediction. This has enabled detailed discussion of a number of issues that are normally not found in texts. For example, the theory of vector linear prediction is explained in considerable detail and so is the theory of line spectral processes. This focus and its small size make the book different from many excellent texts which cover the topic, including a few that are actually dedicated to linear prediction. There are several examples and computer-based demonstrations of the theory. Applications are mentioned wherever appropriate, but the focus is not on the detailed development of these applications. The writing style is meant to be suitable for self-study as well as for classroom use at the senior and first-year graduate levels. The text is self-contained for readers with introductory exposure to signal processing, random processes, and the theory of matrices, and a historical perspective and detailed outline are given in the first chapter. Table of Contents: Introduction / The Optimal Linear Prediction Problem / Levinson's Recursion / Lattice Structures for Linear Prediction / Autoregressive Modeling / Prediction Error Bound and Spectral Flatness / Line Spectral Processes / Linear Prediction Theory for Vector Processes / Appendix A: Linear Estimation of Random Variables / B: Proof of a Property of Autocorrelations / C: Stability of the Inverse Filter / Recursion Satisfied by AR Autocorrelations
Introduction to Data Science: Data Analysis and Prediction Algorithms with R introduces concepts and skills that can help you tackle real-world data analysis challenges. It covers concepts from probability, statistical inference, linear regression, and machine learning. It also helps you develop skills such as R programming, data wrangling, data visualization, predictive algorithm building, file organization with UNIX/Linux shell, version control with Git and GitHub, and reproducible document preparation. This book is a textbook for a first course in data science. No previous knowledge of R is necessary, although some experience with programming may be helpful. The book is divided into six parts: R, data visualization, statistics with R, data wrangling, machine learning, and productivity tools. Each part has several chapters meant to be presented as one lecture. The author uses motivating case studies that realistically mimic a data scientist’s experience. He starts by asking specific questions and answers these through data analysis so concepts are learned as a means to answering the questions. Examples of the case studies included are: US murder rates by state, self-reported student heights, trends in world health and economics, the impact of vaccines on infectious disease rates, the financial crisis of 2007-2008, election forecasting, building a baseball team, image processing of hand-written digits, and movie recommendation systems. The statistical concepts used to answer the case study questions are only briefly introduced, so complementing with a probability and statistics textbook is highly recommended for in-depth understanding of these concepts. If you read and understand the chapters and complete the exercises, you will be prepared to learn the more advanced concepts and skills needed to become an expert.
This book provides an introduction to the theory of linear systems and control for students in business mathematics, econometrics, computer science, and engineering; the focus is on discrete time systems. The subjects treated are among the central topics of deterministic linear system theory: controllability, observability, realization theory, stability and stabilization by feedback, LQ-optimal control theory. Kalman filtering and LQC-control of stochastic systems are also discussed, as are modeling, time series analysis and model specification, along with model validation.