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Freight operations are critical to our prosperity, but they also generate substantial external costs in the form of additional congestion, air pollution, and health impacts. Unfortunately these external costs are not well understood. In this dissertation, I focus on the drayage trucks that serve the San Pedro Bay Ports (or SPBP, i.e. the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in Southern California), which is the largest port complex in the country. This research focuses on the PierPASS program, which shifts drayage trucks traffic from mid-day and peak hours to the evening and night hours. External costs from drayage trucks remain a major concern for communities adjacent to the ports because they bear a disproportionate fraction of the health impacts (respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses, cancers, and premature deaths) associated with the pollution generated by ports operations. In this context, the purpose of my dissertation is analyze the impacts of shifting freight traffic to off-peak periods with an emphasis on congestion, air pollution (NOx, and PM) and related health impacts. This impact analysis was conducted using a framework that integrates microscopic traffic simulation with emission estimation, air dispersion, and a health impact assessment. The research also developed a new approach for origin-destination demand estimation on large microscopic simulation network that is made by augmenting an existing simulation network. Thus the research makes both policy analysis and methodological contributions, and is expected to help enable policy makers to craft cleaner logistics policies. I found that PierPASS had little impact on traffic congestion and on overall emissions of various pollutants. However, PierPASS had a significant impact on the distribution of these emissions between day and night. During night-time, total port truck emissions increased by 71% for NOx and 72% for PM, while day-time emissions decreased by 9% for both NOx and PM. My dispersion analysis shows that PierPASS increased air pollutant concentrations during both day time and night time because of boundary layer effects. Finally, my health impact analyses using EPA's BenMAP model show that the annual social costs due to PierPASS are $438 million.
The growing problem of changing environmental conditions caused by climate destabilization is well recognized as one of the defining issues of our time. The root problem is greenhouse gas emissions, and the fundamental solution is curbing those emissions. Climate geoengineering has often been considered to be a "last-ditch" response to climate change, to be used only if climate change damage should produce extreme hardship. Although the likelihood of eventually needing to resort to these efforts grows with every year of inaction on emissions control, there is a lack of information on these ways of potentially intervening in the climate system. As one of a two-book report, this volume of Climate Intervention discusses albedo modification - changing the fraction of incoming solar radiation that reaches the surface. This approach would deliberately modify the energy budget of Earth to produce a cooling designed to compensate for some of the effects of warming associated with greenhouse gas increases. The prospect of large-scale albedo modification raises political and governance issues at national and global levels, as well as ethical concerns. Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth discusses some of the social, political, and legal issues surrounding these proposed techniques. It is far easier to modify Earth's albedo than to determine whether it should be done or what the consequences might be of such an action. One serious concern is that such an action could be unilaterally undertaken by a small nation or smaller entity for its own benefit without international sanction and regardless of international consequences. Transparency in discussing this subject is critical. In the spirit of that transparency, Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth was based on peer-reviewed literature and the judgments of the authoring committee; no new research was done as part of this study and all data and information used are from entirely open sources. By helping to bring light to this topic area, this book will help leaders to be far more knowledgeable about the consequences of albedo modification approaches before they face a decision whether or not to use them.
Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.
Summarizes the science of climate change and impacts on the United States, for the public and policymakers.
We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space (National Academies Press, 2018) provides detailed guidance on how relevant federal agencies can ensure that the United States receives the maximum benefit from its investments in Earth observations from space, while operating within realistic cost constraints. This short booklet, designed to be accessible to the general public, provides a summary of the key ideas and recommendations from the full decadal survey report.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world.
As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.